Republicans are hell-bent on confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. They know he’s not popular, and that the public supports abortion rights. They also know demographics are shifting against them, making the Supreme Court their last political bulwark for the foreseeable future.
So the question isn’t whether Kavanaugh is popular or not. Conservatives don’t care. The question is how much political damage they’ll suffer in pushing him on the Court. To that end, let’s take a look at two Civiqs charts: GOP favorability rating, and generic congressional ballot. We’ll focus on independents, because Republicans and Democrats are locked into their trendlines.
That Kavanaugh nomination boosted Democratic performance among independents from a virtual tie, to a 6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. The overall trend gives Democrats a 49-42 lead in the generic congressional ballot (among registered voters), as Democrats pick up undecided voters and those disaffected independents (including a 24-point gender gap). In fact, even among white independents, the GOP’s 41-39 lead is now a Democratic 41-39 lead.
All thanks to the Kavanaugh nomination.
You can see the exact same trend in the Republican Party’s favorability chart:
Even Traitor Trump’s numbers have slid among independents.
Kavanaugh isn’t the only issue moving numbers against the GOP. We have strong evidence that the tariff issue has moved numbers among white independents:
We also have strong evidence that the immigration protests moved numbers, as you can see that bump in unfavorables among white independents on July 1. Apparently, kids in cages isn’t the best policy.
But the Cavanaugh choice (and subsequent Helsinki surrender) have kept his unfavorables near his all-time post-election high among a demographic that could be the difference between a solid election night for Democrats this November, or an epic blowout.