Just got back from canvassing in Florida on a short sabbatical to help set up GOTV and bring some Independents and moderate Republican voters over to support Bill Nelson for Senator and Dem nominees for governor, House and state offices. I don’t get to post much here due to my job but after analyzing our data, we had a finding so striking I felt it’s important to bring everyone’s attention to it. One of our tasks was to split into groups and focus test different issues, to see how effective they were in swaying Indies and wavering registered Republicans. Most of the issues we tried gave us at best a 1 to 2 percentage point swing, but one gave us a 15 to 20 percentage point swing in favor of Nelson against Rick Scott, and similar for Gov. and House Races: health care and Scott’s push to withdraw insurance and care guarantees for Americans with preexisting conditions. Even Republican voters in Florida gravitated towards Nelson when we pointed out that Scott and the Florida GOP were part of the recent lawsuit by Republican-led states to withdraw the insurance guarantees, with Rick Scott himself stupidly blurting out that insurance companies, in effect, should have the option to drop Americans with preexisting conditions. (I’m sure my cousin with a congenital heart valve defect is cheered by Scott’s implication that she should pay bankrupting hospital bills for “not taking care of herself”).
The result was so stark it had a clear message: If the Dem campaigns focus to make the GOP push to withdraw insurance guarantees for preexisting conditions their #1, 2 and 3 issue in campaign ads and GOTV, then we crush the GOP like never before in 2018. It’s as simple as that. To be clear about this, I’m not at all saying other issues are unimportant, it’s just that when it comes to winning the November election and capturing the Senate— which we’ll need to thwart Trump’s attempt to define the federal courts for a generation, and for which we’ll absolutely need Florida— there are certain issues that personally affect and motivate millions of voters, and thus really win them over to our side and just as important, energize them to vote. Healthcare affects voters personally like no other issue and it’s the GOP’s weakest point, even more so that they’ve stupidly opted to challenge the most popular part of the ACA, even among a majority of Republicans based on polls. So the key to victory is focus on this one core issue without dispersing and diffusing our campaign resources and message in too many different directions.
This in fact was the main complaint that many of the Independent voters had for us about the Dem campaigns in Florida in general— they just seemed too unfocused for them and it was hard for them, in their busy and packed schedules, to get a sense of the core issues Democrats are making a stand on. In particular, we found that campaign ads hitting Scott and other Florida Republicans on things like Hurricane Irma, taxes, the broader economy and NRA associations just didn’t deliver much bang for the buck. The positions or results weren’t clear enough, or the issues too muddled or remote, even after Parkland. Therefore devoting ad money and resources on these issues is just spreading our fire too thin without reaching voters at a gut level.
OTOH health care, and esp. the stands by Scott and other GOP officials to remove the ACA guarantees for Americans with preexisting conditions, had just about universal reach and strong impact in our favor, especially emphasizing Nelson’s and other Florida Democrats’ support for the preexisting conditions guarantees. Nelson in fact could basically craft a simple, clear-cut core message for himself— “I’m the candidate who will protect your access to health care without going bankrupt, Rick Scott wants to take it away (visual of the GOP lawsuit and Scott’s dumb comments on preexisting conditions”— and he’ll be taking buzzsaw to Scott’s campaign no matter how much Scott reaches into his own pockets for his fantasy of buying a Senate seat the way he did the statehouse.
Talking about all the other issues combined barely moved the needle by comparison. Practically every single voter either has, or knows someone in their family or close friends with a preexisting condition who would be affected by the anti-ACA lawsuit that Trump and other Republican officials are trying to push with a specific focus on shutting down the preexisting conditions guarantees. This makes their lawsuit just about the politically stupidest move in the past decade, but that’s not our problem, in fact it’s a gift to us so why not take advantage? Our own poll findings in general (before giving persuasive pitches) are basically consistent with state polls so far, with Sen. Nelson holding about a 1-3 percentage point edge over Scott but the Senate race basically a dead heat, and other statewide races varying considerably.
But everything changes starkly just mentioning Scott’s position in gutting the preexisting conditions guarantees. Nelson’s actually in a much stronger position than much of the media has realized, Scott has already burned through his cash to manage at best a dead heat, and even with his self-funding he’s still running up against limits to what he and the GOP have spent (or are willing to spend on his behalf), while Nelson has been keeping his power and campaign cash dry. If he avoids distracting issues and just focuses on health care and Scott’s stupid position on preexisting conditions, probably being pushed by the Koch Brothers, then Nelson wins by a huge margin.
And this likely goes for other states too. Yes, Florida is particularly affected due to the older voters and early retirees, part of why the AARP itself is coming out against Scott’s stand. But the preexisting condition is a sensitive and very personal topic across America, and Republicans exclusively are trying to remove those guarantees. No doubt there are other keys to victory in November 2018 such as (esp. in Florida) registering Puerto Rican and other minority voters and working on GOTV. But we should be running ads 24/7 on the preexisting conditions issue, using the words of Scott and other Republicans against them, bringing up the GOP lawsuit, and making it an emphasis in direct mail, e-mail and knocking on doors. No other issue comes close in terms of clarity, distinctive stands and moral force in doing damage to the GOP nationwide and bringing even many Republican voters, personally affected by this issue, into our fold.