The tropical Atlantic is sort of active today, with one disturbance east of the Carolinas, and one inexplicable and very tiny intense hurricane.
BERYL
...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
Brazen, eh? Well, yeah. The Atlantic at the moment is covered with a dense layer of Saharan dust---it’s been affecting air quality across the Caribbean and the southeastern US. This inhibits storm development. Not for Beryl.
Beryl is a very tiny hurricane---if it moved directly between islands like St. Lucia and Martinique neither island would experience much intense weather. As such, it can survive hostile atmospheric conditions.
Beryl will reach the islands late on Sunday.
We’re not sure what will happen, as modeling is inconsistent. Most modeling indicates that Beryl will then fall apart, meaning the threat to other islands like Puerto Rico and Hispanola will be rain—a huge concern on Puerto Rico, obviously. We’ll see, and stay tuned.
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE
The other disturbance, tagged “96L”, is south and west of Bermuda. It is forecast to organize into something this weekend.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about a
thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined but
still weak low pressure system located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast are gradually becoming better
organized, although surface pressures in the area remain high.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the next couple of days while it moves slowly
northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North
Carolina over the weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and
South Carolina coasts should monitor the progress of this system
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
some modeling is rather bullish with this one, bringing it up to a fairly intense hurricane in a couple days, that also just sits and spins there. Really not sure about this one either, but if it gets a name, it’ll be Chris.