We have known since at least the statewide elections last year in Virginia that the suburbs and, more generally, white voters with a college education—a critical part of the Republican voting coalition in the modern political era—were increasingly turning away from the GOP. It proved true again in March with Democrat Conor Lamb's upset win in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district. And now we have fresh numbers from the special-election squeaker this week in Ohio's traditionally red 12th Congressional district between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson. Politico compares Balderson's performance Tuesday in two wealthier, more educated counties in the district with that of the Republican who held the seat before him, Rep. Pat Tiberi, in the past several elections.
In Columbus’ Franklin County, where Tiberi regularly received more than 55 percent support, O’Connor held Balderson to just one-third of the special election vote. In Delaware County — a wealthier, whiter bedroom community to the north — Balderson scraped together a majority where Tiberi used to win 70-plus percent. But the further Balderson got from the city, the better he performed compared to Tiberi’s baselines, taking up to 71 percent of the vote in further-flung counties.
Balderson outperformed Tiberi in the less populous, less educated rural counties but performed significantly worse in the denser, more educated and diverse places in the district. In particular, he did 23 points worse in Franklin County than Tiberi did there in 2012 and 17 points worse in Delaware County than Tiberi's 2012 showing (Franklin County is more diverse than Delaware County).
As the New York Times' Upshot notes, that bodes well for Democrats in November because white college-educated voters typically turn out in higher numbers in the midterms than white working-class voters—setting up that slice of voters to play a more significant role in 2018’s congressional swing districts than they did in 2016’s decisive presidential states.
If the patterns hold, the combination of a better-educated battleground [district] and lower turnout among less educated voters could mean that House control is decided in districts where college-educated voters make up around 47 percent of voters, rather than the 34 percent share of such voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016, according to Upshot estimates based on census data.
In addition to Democrats’ increasing advantage among white college-educated voters, Politico notes that a number of battleground districts in Orange County, California, along with suburbs in Philadelphia and Virginia include a similar voter profile to that of Ohio's Franklin County: younger, highly educated, and more diverse.
That gives Democrats a big boost in their quest to take the 23 seats necessary for them to regain control of the House this fall. What it might mean in the long-term for Republicans remains to be seen, but it certainly could disrupt the voting coalition they have banked on for a handful of decades.