The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA-07: The Allentown Morning Call reported on Friday that Republican Marty Nothstein was placed on leave in February by the Lehigh Valley Velodrome, where he's served as executive director for a decade, amidst a sexual misconduct investigation stemming from an alleged incident that took place around 2000. That year, Nothstein won the gold medal at the Sydney Olympics in the men's 200 meter sprint; he is currently running against Democrat Susan Wild for Pennsylvania's open 7th District.
Nothstein, who had previously refused to explain why he was on leave, denied any accusations of wrongdoing, calling them "100 percent false." It's not clear just what those accusations might be, though: The Morning Call says that despite digging into the story for three months, it's been unable to determine what specifically the complaint filed against Nothstein alleged, and what conclusions, if any, the investigation has reached.
Indeed, the Morning Call says that it tried talking to more than 35 people connected with the cycling center, none of whom would discuss the matter. That state of affairs could, of course, always change, to Nothstein's detriment.
Senate
● MO-Sen: The Club for Growth, which is backing Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley, has released a new poll from WPA Intelligence giving their candidate a 48-41 lead on Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. The memo notes that this is an increase from last month when, in a previously unreleased survey, WPA had Hawley with just a 43-42 edge. Almost every other poll of this race has shown a much closer contest, including one just the other day from Democratic pollster TJP Strategies, which had Hawley and McCaskill tied at 47.
WPA claims it's seen such big movement because undecided voters have moved to Hawley as the result of an utterly mendacious attack ad the Club has been airing against McCaskill. Notably, though, McCaskill's favorability numbers, which stand at 46-49 according to this very same poll, haven't budged since July.
Meanwhile, the conservative group One Nation says it's spending $1.5 million on new TV, digital, and radio ads that praise Hawley for uncovering untested rape kits.
● NJ-Sen: Integrity NJ has dropped $360,000 for TV ads to oppose Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, plus another $88,000 for digital ads.
● TN-Sen: One Nation, a "social welfare organization" (that is, a nonprofit, not a super PAC) linked to Karl Rove, says it is spending $1.2 million on a multi-media buy supporting Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn, who is running for Tennessee's open Senate seat against former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen. Their TV spot praises Blackburn (and Sen. Lamar Alexander, who is not up for re-election) for backing tax cuts, though the ad mostly focuses on the congresswoman.
● NRSC: The NRSC has filed a new independent expenditure report showing how much it's spent on a recent flight of ads attacking Democratic senators in four states: $1.3 million in Missouri, $467,000 for in Montana, $350,000 in North Dakota, and $612,000 in West Virginia.
Gubernatorial
● ME-Gov: On Thursday, the Maine Ethics Commission voted to release money owed to candidates participating in the state's public financing program, following a court ruling that said GOP Gov. Paul LePage couldn't unilaterally withhold such funds after the legislature failed to resolve a drafting error in the state's budget. As a result, money will start flowing to over 200 legislative campaigns and one gubernatorial candidate, state Treasurer Terry Hayes, who is running as an independent.
Last month, Hayes, who'd received $891,000 in an initial disbursement that went out before the budget dispute, said she was owed $250,000 in supplemental funds, and if she continues to bring in qualifying small donations, she could receive as much as $1.4 million. Democrat Janet Mills and Republican Shawn Moody are not participating in the public finance system.
House
● CA-25: The Congressional Leadership Fund has made a $500,000 ad buy against Democrat Katie Hill.
● CA-45: The Congressional leadership Fund has also laid out a $613,000 ad buy against Democrat Katie Porter.
● KS-03, NY-22, WA-08: The DCCC has made new ad buys in three highly competitive House races: $62,000 for ads and $20,000 for mailers opposing GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in KS-03; $78,000 against Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney in NY-22; and $390,000 in ads and $25,000 for mailers opposing Republican Dino Rossi in WA-08.
● NV-04: In a rare sighting, we have an internal poll of a House race from the Republican side, courtesy of former GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy and the NRCC. (As of last month, Democrats had released 93 percent of all internals that have been made public this cycle.) The survey, from Moore Information, shows Hardy tied at 41 apiece with former Rep. Steven Horsford. This is the first poll we've seen of this race in a very long time, but while it might help Hardy juice donors since he can say he's tied, he'll have a difficult time overtaking Horsford, given both the tilt of the 2018 midterms and the fact that this district voted 50-45 for Hillary Clinton. Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Lean Democratic.
● NY-24: Though her campaign had always been very much an outsider's, Democrat Dana Balter has now been embraced by major D.C. organizations whose support is often crucial to victory in November. On Friday, EMILY's List endorsed Balter, who is taking on GOP Rep. John Katko in New York's 24th Congressional District in the Syracuse area, just a few weeks after she was added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list for top candidates.
Ad Roundup
