As droughts go, Texas Democrats have a long one going when it comes to statewide races. Beto O’Rourke is the real deal. Recent polling has a tight race in a place that hasn’t seen a tight race in ages. But it isn’t just O’Rourke that has me optimistic, but all the fights that Texas Democrats are putting up right now.
Being in Harris County and Southwest Houston, I see things that people don’t on the national level. I’ll start with the bold prediction first: TX-22 will shock. Why? Kagro X talks all the time about ‘Campaign in a Box’ and how that playbook propelled GOP victories in two different waves. That playbook doesn’t work when the incumbent isn’t used to actually campaigning. When the House is mired in a Culture of Corruption, it’s hard to be anti-Washington when you are Washington and knee deep in GOP filth. But demographics also play a huge role in this prediction. Fort Bend, which holds the majority of 22, is almost evenly split between Blacks, Whites, Asian-Pacific Islanders, and Latinos. A huge chunk of the Black population was carved out and sits in TX-9, but the normally reliable affluent Republican Asian community isn’t happy with the GOP. Hateful rhetoric and outright racism take a toll. Sri Kulkarni looks like that district. That’s my one to watch on Election Night.
TX-2 is another race to watch. It has the same make up as TX-7, which is rated a Toss-up. TX-2 is an open seat and I can’t even with that nominee. TX-7 has the incumbent actually sending out block-walking teams. Candidate in a Box being forced to defend his seat. The key here, both of those districts were hit hard last year with Hurricane Harvey. But Harvey is playing in many contests since it literally swamped the upper Texas Gulf Coast. Tip O’Neill said All Politics is Local. Harvey more than anything will prove that truism. Todd Litton and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher are running full well organized campaigns.
TX-21 is an open seat and being hotly contested. TX-23 is as swingy as a seat can get. Will Hurd tried to act tough, but has voted with Nunes all year. Gina Ortiz Jones has raised a ton of money in this race. TX-31 is another with a Candidate in a Box facing a well funded opponent. TX-32 is another Toss Up taking place in suburban Dallas. TX-36 is a long shot, but Dayna Steele brought her Rolodex of rock stars with her to this fight and making yet another generic Republican defend when he’s not used to it.
There are two seats that could be very interesting to watch on a wave night. TX-10 and TX-14. Demographics, Harvey, and Corruption will play a role in these two seats.
That is eight seats being heavily contested, plus two more, in places that normally don’t get contested, except for TX-23. O’Rourke is not fighting alone. Those seats sit in suburban counties that have to turn blue for a statewide candidate to have a prayer. Running up the margins in the urban counties of Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis is an absolute must. Getting turnout in Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, and El Paso counties is imperative. But fighting everywhere, and at the state house level too, is what makes the Senate seat look doable. It isn’t Beto fighting alone.
All of this and more is why I’m optimistic.