The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OK-Gov: The GOP firm The Right Strategy Group finds a tight general election awaiting whichever Republican emerges from the Aug. 28 primary runoff. The poll, which they tell us was not done on behalf of a client, finds Democrat Drew Edmondson locked in a 39-39 tie with former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and edging wealthy businessman Kevin Stitt 41-40.
Campaign Action
A recent Sooner Poll survey found Cornett leading Edmondson 43-35, while Stitt trailed 40-39.
Oklahoma is usually a reliably red state, but the state's horrible budget situation, as well as this year's teacher strike, has left termed-out Gov. Mary Fallin with weak approval ratings. However, recent polls give her an even worse standing with voters than we thought. Morning Consult gave her a 19-74 score during the second quarter of 2018, which makes the 25-63 approval rating she had during the first three months of the year look comparatively great.
However, the Right Strategy Group goes even lower and finds her in the dumps with an astoundingly bad 11-80 approval rating, which CNN polling expert Harry Enten says is the third worst approval rating of any incumbent governor in the last two decades, only exceeded by the horrible ratings for scandal-plagued former Govs. Bob Taft of Ohio and Rod Blagojevich of Illinois.
We also have two new polls of next month’s GOP runoff. The Right Strategy Group finds Stitt leading Cornett 41-33, while Remington Research, a GOP firm that also tells us that they don’t have a client here, has Stitt ahead 47-43. The recent Sooner Poll found a 38-38 tie.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Red and Gold, a super PAC that was formed on Wednesday to support Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, recently went up with an ad against GOP Rep. Martha McSally, and we now know the size-of-the-buy is a hefty $815,000.
● MO-Sen: The Club for Growth has added another $346,000 to their TV buy against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.
● ND-Sen: The NRSC has added another $270,000 to their buy against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp.
● TX-Sen: End Citizens United, a progressive group backing Democrat Beto O'Rourke, is out with a new survey from PPP giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz just a 46-42 lead in the general election. PPP's May survey for Giffords, the gun-safety group run by former Arizona Democratic Rep. Gabby Gifford, had Cruz ahead 48-42. Over the last few days, we’ve seen independent surveys from Texas Lyceum and Quinnipiac giving Cruz a 41-39 and 49-43 edge, respectively.
● WI-Sen: Restoration PAC, a GOP super PAC backing businessman Kevin Nicholson, is out with a mid-July poll from Hodas & Associates giving him a 33-20 lead over state Sen. Leah Vukmir in the Aug. 14 GOP primary. A Marist poll taken around the same time had Nicholson up 38-28.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: We have our first campaign finance reports since the late June primary, and Democrat Jared Polis ended July with a wide $1.26 million to $302,000 cash-on-hand edge over Republican Walker Stapleton. Polis, who has been almost entirely self-funding his campaign, gave his campaign $1.6 million through June 28 to July 27, taking his total personal investment to $12.9 million. Stapleton took in $255,000 from donors during that period.
● FL-Gov: Recent polls show billionaire developer Jeff Greene in second or third place against former Rep. Gwen Graham in the Aug. 28 Democratic primary, so it's not a surprise that Greene is now launching his first negative TV ad against her. The spot argues that Graham is a hypocrite when it comes to protecting the environment because her family's company owns land near the Everglades that's being developed for a megamall.
On the GOP side, most polls show Trump-backed Rep. Ron DeSantis with a huge lead over state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, but the former frontrunner isn't going down without a fight. Putnam's allied Florida Grown committee is out with a spot arguing that DeSantis wants to hike the sales tax by 23 percent and cut Social Security, and it declares that he's too close to the "Washington Swamp."
● HI-Gov: Democratic Gov. David Ige is facing a barrage of spending ahead of the Aug. 11 Democratic primary. Be Change Now, a super PAC funded by the Hawaii Council of Carpenters, has spent $332,000 on TV and radio ads and mailers promoting Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, as well as another $333,000 against Ige. In late July, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported that they'd only spent a total of $367,000 on this contest.
A group called Defend Hawaii Now also recently spent at least $50,000 on a TV ad utilizing audio of Rep. Tulsi Gabbard endorsing Hanabusa and criticizing Ige's handling of the false missile warning in January. The organization appears to be linked to prominent and controversial contractor Dennis Mitsunaga.
However, the governor is getting some air support from AiKea Unite HERE, a super PAC funded by Unite Here Local 5 and the local ironworkers union. The Star-Advertiser writes that they've committed $200,000 in advertising to support Ige. The candidates themselves have spent a comparable amount of money, with Ige outspending Hanabusa just $474,000 to $471,000 in advertising through late July.
● NV-Gov: The Democratic super PAC Priorities USA has launched a $500,000 digital ad buy against Republican Adam Laxalt.
House
● KS-03: The conservative super PAC Ending Spending is making a last-minute effort to influence Tuesday's Democratic primary. McClatchy reports that they've spent $160,000 on a TV ad "attacking" labor lawyer Brent Welder. As cheery music plays, the narrator pledges that Welder would "raise the minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour, wipeout tax breaks for big corporations," as well as "make college completely free," and they add he "supports single-payer Medicare-for-all."
It's not even until the final 10 seconds that the spot even seems to be an attack ad whatsoever. The narrator insists, "We don’t need more Obama-Sanders progressives." This kind of messaging is designed to make Welder, who has Bernie Sanders' support, more appealing to Democratic primary voters while nominally still attacking him. The spot is just about as subtle as the commercials Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill ran during the 2012 GOP Senate primary "attacking" Rep. Todd Akin as "too conservative," which helped her prefered general election opponent win the Republican nomination.
● ME-02: Democrat Jared Golden is out with a poll from the Mellman Group that finds a very tight general election with Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin. The survey initially gives Poliquin a 40-39 lead, with minor party candidates Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar taking a combined 4 percent and 16 percent undecided.
Mellman then tries to simulate the state's new instant-runoff voting process. Voters will be allowed to rank their choices—they get as many votes as there are candidates—and if no one takes a majority, the last-place candidate gets eliminated and has their votes assigned to their voters' next preferences. Mellman's survey first removes undecided voters, which takes Poliquin to a 48-47 lead and gives the independents a combined 6 percent. Respondents are asked to rank their choices, and once Bond and Hoar's voters are reassigned to the remaining candidates, Golden leads 51-49.
Instant-runoff voting (also known by its initials, IRV, or as “ranked-choice” voting) has been used in several mayoral contests and in foreign elections in contests like for Australia’s lower house. However, this is the first time it's ever been implemented in a general election for the U.S. Congress, so there's really no precedent for American pollsters like Mellman to rely on here when trying to predict how things will go.
● NH-01: On Friday, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen endorsed Executive Councilor Chris Pappas in the Sept. 11 Democratic primary. Pappas, who already had Sen. Maggie Hassan and a number of prominent unions in his corner, also unveiled an endorsement from the state American Federation of Teachers on Thursday.
● PA-07 (old): On Thursday, GOP finally got around to nominating Pearl Kim for the November special election for the final months of former GOP Rep. Pat Meehan's term. Kim won the May primary for the new 5th District, which takes up much of this territory. She’ll face Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon twice on Nov. 6: once for the special election for the old and swingy 7th, and once for the full two-year term for the new and safely blue 5th.
Primary Recap
● TN-Gov: On Thursday, businessman Bill Lee, a former member of the state Higher Education Commission, beat businessman Randy Boyd 37-24 in the GOP primary to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Bill Haslam. Rep. Diane Black, who looked like the frontrunner throughout most of the campaign and picked up Vice President Mike Pence's support in the final week, took third with just 23, while state House Speaker Beth Harwell was in fourth with 15. On the Democratic side, former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean defeated state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh in a 75-19 landslide.
Lee had consistently been in third place in the polls, though data was very limited in the final month of the contest. However, he seems to have benefited from Black and Boyd attacking one another on TV while largely leaving him alone.
That strategy seems to have helped him stand out, and Boyd and Black ended up focusing their attacks on Lee in the final weeks of the contest (though they still went after one another). A mid-July JMC Analytics poll giving Lee a 26-20 lead over Boyd was another sign that he was gaining strength at just the right time. Lee, who had run positive ads touting his business and Christian beliefs, responded by arguing that he was staying above the fray while his rivals got nasty.
Lee begins the general election in this red state as the clear favorite. However, Dean is a credible candidate with a moderate profile that could appeal to conservatives who are still open to backing Democrats. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as Likely Republican.
● TN-02: Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett defeated state Rep. Jimmy Matlock 48-36 in the GOP primary for a safely red seat that hasn't elected a Democrat since 1852, which is the second-longest streak in the nation after Pennsylvania’s recently renumbered 11th District.
Burchett had been preparing to challenge Rep. Jimmy Duncan in the primary before the 30-year incumbent announced he would retire, so it was no surprise that he endorsed Matlock. However, it was never going to be easy to beat Burchett, whose constituency included about 60 percent of this district. Next year will be the first time that the Knoxville area hasn't been represented by the Duncan family since John Duncan, the retiring congressman's father, was first elected to Congress in 1964.
● TN-06: Businessman John Rose, who among other things has helped operate the Tennessee State Fair over the last few years and served as the appointed agriculture commissioner in 2002, defeated retired judge Bob Corlew 48-36 in the GOP primary to succeed unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Diane Black. Both contenders gave millions to their campaigns, though Rose raised and self-funded considerably more than Corlew. Rose should have little trouble in the fall in this 73-24 Trump seat in Middle Tennessee.
● TN-08: Freshman Rep. David Kustoff fended off wealthy perennial candidate George Flinn by an underwhelming 56-40 in the GOP primary for this safely red West Tennessee seat.
Kustoff had defeated Flinn 27-23 in a crowded primary for what was an open seat two years ago, and Flinn decided to challenge him before he became entrenched. Flinn poured over $3 million of his own money into his bid to decisively outspend Kustoff, and he ran commercials arguing that the incumbent was secretly liberal when it came to abortion rights. Kustoff did pick up Donald Trump's endorsement in the final week of the race, which may have saved him from defeat (or at least a much-closer win).
Ad Roundup
