Hurricane Florence is still on course for the Carolinas, where it will make landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. The landfall time has shifted, as more data has come in. The storm most definitely will slow down and then stall, and take over a day to come ashore, now pegged to be sometime Saturday morning.
...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
The hurricane underwent another eyewall replacement cycle, and appears to be having them back to back. This may limit how much it intensifies on its approach to the coast, and during the day on Friday as the hurricane slows to a snail’s pace it will churn up the ocean enough that weakening should occur. That said, it’s imperative not to focus on the category or the wind speed, the hurricane will still be intense until it comes ashore, and it will unleash an unprecedented rainfall and inland freshwater flood event that will extend hundreds of miles inland. I cannot stress enough how bad this really will be. That creature inhabiting 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue said “it’s big and wet.” For once, he got it right.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...
Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches
This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.
Rainfall totals rivaling last year’s Harvey are possible.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.
Updates as I can during the day.
Wednesday, Sep 12, 2018 · 12:45:29 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
ISSAC: I would keep an eye on that one as well, as I suspect it will end up in the Gulf next week and may approach the Texas coast around September 21-22. Or, it may cross over Haiti and head northward, and then perhaps out to sea.
HELENE: It will make for interesting weather in the UK and Western Europe next week.
MANGKHUT: This is the most powerful storm on Earth right now, on track for northern Luzon, and then Hong Kong by Sunday-Monday. No one does recon in the Western Pacific so we can only estimate how powerful Mangkhut actually is, but its estimated winds are 150kts. That’s 172 mph. This is one vicious typhoon.
Wednesday, Sep 12, 2018 · 1:25:27 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
I don’t think we’ll know details on:
- the slowdown
- the stall
- and where/when
until this evening. Number of questions about Georgia in the comment thread. I wouldn’t let my guard down if I lived near Savannah or Jacksonville.
Some sounding indications this morning from a number of weather service offices along the mid-Atlantic that the high pressure feature in the middle and upper atmosphere that will put the brakes on Florence is a bit stronger this morning than forecasted. Soundings are taken via weather balloons. Can’t say if that’s good or bad, but it may mean Florence may begin its slowdown earlier. This is probably going to be a nailbiter of a day.