A second trial for Donald Trump’s campaign chairman Paul Manafort opens next week in Washington, D.C. as jury selection gets underway on charges of money laundering and failing to register as a foreign agent. Having already been convicted on eight counts in an earlier trial, Manafort could seek to make a deal with federal prosecutors before stepping into a DC courtroom. However, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani seems extraordinarily confident that Manafort will ride this thing to the very end.
Giuliani: There’s no fear that Paul Manafort would cooperate against the president because there’s nothing to cooperate about and we long ago evaluated him as an honorable man.
Giuliani’s certainty is particularly interesting in light of the fact that one of the charges that Manafort faces was only added after his initial indictment by Special Counsel Robert Mueller: Witness tampering. It was tampering with witnesses that got Paul Manafort locked up in advance of his trial. According to CNN, Manafort solicited witnesses to commit perjury in order to protect him from Mueller’s charges.
And now, as Politico reports, Giuliani is singing the former campaign chair’s praises, while stating that Trump has nothing to fear. But while Giuliani claims that the reason Trump can be cavalier about Manafort’s trial is that his long-time associate has no dirt to offer, there’s an even better reason for Giuliani to believe that Trump is Manafort proof. Speaking about the ostrich-wearing supporter of Russian oligarchs, Trump’s attorney had a simple message.
Giuliani: From our perspective we want him to do the right thing for himself.
Just what would be the right thing for Paul Manafort? Former federal prosecutor Randall Eliason has a rather dire prediction concerning the outcome of Manafort’s two trials, saying "At this point, there's not much he can do to avoid a life sentence.” But of course, there is still something that Trump can do.
With jury selection about to get underway on a case that includes charges of manipulating a witness, the statements from Trump and Giuliani give every impression that they are … manipulating a witness, by extending the offer to Manafort of a pardon if he’ll only not answer prosecutor’s questions about Trump’s culpability.
Speaking on Fox, Trump continues to praise Manafort for keeping his trap shut.
Trump: One of the reasons I respect Paul Manafort so much is he went through that trial — you know they make up stories. People make up stories. This whole thing about flipping, they call it, I know all about flipping. It's called flipping and it almost ought to be illegal. ... For 30, 40 years I’ve been watching flippers. Everything’s wonderful and then they get 10 years in jail and they — they flip on whoever the next highest one is, or as high as you can go.
Trump has also expressed sympathy for Manafort’s family and made multiple statements about what a “good man” Manafort is. This being the same guy who took over $60 million from Russian oligarchs to install a puppet regime in Ukraine and arrange protests against NATO, including one in which rocks and debris were thrown at US Marines.
Though the sentencing from Manafort’s existing convictions is not expected to be excessive—he is being consigned by the same judge who handed down a six month sentence to someone convicted of $200 million in tax fraud—the time for the eight fraud and tax evasion charges, combined with any convictions resulting from the second trial, likely will amount to a “life sentence” for the 69-year-old Manafort. The assumption has been that Manafort might have chosen to cooperate with Robert Mueller earlier in the investigation and avoided these charges, but it’s not clear that the offer for Manafort to cooperate was on the table then or now. Manafort may well be one of the principle targets of the investigation, and his conviction could easily have been viewed as too important to be softened by a cooperating agreement.
Even if Manafort had an offer on the table at some point, it’s unlikely there’s anything left that he would find attractive at this point, unless he’s simply tired of spending money on ineffective legal representation. Instead, Manafort is all-in on the idea that Trump will provide him with a get out of jail free card. And statements from both Trump and Giuliani make it seem extremely likely that Manafort will soon be added to Trump’s growing list of friends excused from following the law.
In a trial where Manafort is being charged with trying to keep people from testifying, it’s clear that real issue isn’t manipulating witnesses. It’s not having the power to give those witnesses what they really want.
Manafort might even decide to plead guilty at this point, as Michael Cohen did recently, without taking any cooperating agreement. Or any agreement at all. After all, the difference between a twenty years and forty years in jail is moot for Manafort. He could save money and simply put his trust in Trump. But of course, no matter how much time Trump spends saying nice things about Manafort, it’s hard for anyone to trust Trump to follow through.