Part II of my biannual series on the Minnesota legislature. For those of you just tuning in, Part I can be found here: www.dailykos.com/...
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs around Buffalo in blood red Wright County. Both incumbent Representatives Joe McDonald (R), first elected in 2010 and Marion O’Neil, first elected in 2012 face off against Some Dude level candidates: Renee Cardarelle and Sharon McGinty respectively.
House A
Romney (R) 60-38
Trump (R) 63-29
McFadden (R) 57-39
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 57-40
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 54-41
Safe R
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican downballot and centered about St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Incumbents Republicans Nick Zerwas and Eric Lucero hare rematches against their 2016 Democratic opponents Sarah Hamlin and Margaret Fernandez. There isn’t any reason why the incumbents’ 35+ point wins will be any different this year.
House A
Romney (R) 58-39
Trump (R) 61-30
McFadden (R) 56-40
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 62-36
Trump (R) 62-29
McFadden (R) 60-36
Safe R
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. 31A is home to Speaker Kurt Daudt (R). Daudt seemed to have survived his Montana heist ordeal just fine, and isn’t going to be losing his seat. On the B side, we have freshman Cal Bahr, who won his seat by primary against a less ideologically pure long-term Republican incumbent in 2016 is surely going back to St. Paul for a second term. Thoough it is worth noting that Tom Hackbarth, the former incumbent, made a VERY strong push in the GOP primary from the left, though came up short.
House A
Romney (R) 62-35
Trump (R) 69-24
McFadden (R) 56-40
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 59-38
Trump (R) 63-29
McFadden (R) 58-39
Safe R
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties became one of the Republican epicenters of the state over the last decade. In 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer faces off against DFL challenger Renae Berg and will win easily. 32B had a big kerfuffle last cycle, with the Republican incumbent not actually living in the district but whose name couldn’t be stricken from the ballot, so the November 2016 election was meaningless. That set up Minnesota’s first special election in 2017, which was surprisingly close with Republican Anne Neu winning 53-47. Neu has not exactly impressed many people politically and she has the political instincts and campaign skills of wet mop. Dems smell blood in the water here and are heavily backing Chisago School Board member Jeff Peterson. Not only has Peterson outraised the incumbent 4:1, but Neu has raised less money than most “some dude” challengers in hopeless districts. This is one of the bigger surprise races this cycle, and while I am skittish to declare Peterson the favorite, Neu is clearly napping on the job and is at major risk of losing her conservative House seat.
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 64-28
McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 55-43
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 52-44
Tilt R
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota have leaned Republican, though are clearly reacting rather intensely against Trump and the GOP. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseating incumbents in 2012 in their primaries. Jerry Hertaus (R) in 33A represents all of the blood red sparsely populated areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Hertaus will be facing against self-made wealthy Professor of Pharmacy and businesswoman Norrie Thomas for the second cycle in a row. This, while a 62% Romney seat actually had more Dem votes in the 2018 primary than GOP votes, which is a giant red flag. Another red flag for Hertaus? The fact he’s been outraised by over 4:1 against his challenger. Dems seem very high on Thomas, I’m not ready to call it a flip yet, but this is one that is on the cusp as of the writing of this diary in Mid-September. In 33B, there is perhaps the second biggest Republican bomb thrower in the state legislature (behind Mary Franson) in Cindy Pugh. Pugh has not shied away from stirring the pot with some comments she has made over the years. Pugh is clearly behind in her bid for reelection against Gynecologist Kelly Morrison. Morrison has the distinction of being the biggest fundraiser in the state of Minnesota from either pary, and has outraised the incumbent nearly 6:1 in this wealthy and rapidly bluing district. While Romney won it by 11 in 2012, Clinton narrowly carried it in 2016. More recently, Dems outnumbered Republicans in the 2018 primary 60.3-39.7. Pugh is a dead woman walking, and it isn’t going to be close.
House A
Romney (R) 62-36
Trump (R) 54-37
McFadden (R) 61-36
Tilt R
House B
Romney (R) 55-44
Clinton (D) 45.5-45.0
McFadden (R) 54-43
Likely D (flip)
District 34: Maple Grove, wit Rogers thrown into 34A. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove (and especially Rogers) is one of the places Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide, though the GOP margins have begun to dwindle as the city is no longer expanding. After over a decade of smooth reelection efforts, Republican House Majority Leader Joyce Peppin (34A) has seen the writing on the wall for the GOP this cycle and has stepped aside, retiring in July. This isn’t likely the last we’ve seen of Peppin, as she is still in her 40s and has higher ambitions, but those ambitions would have been blunted with an underwhelming reelection or worse yet, a loss. The race to succeed her has been rather intense. On the GOP side long-ago Congressional aide to Harris Fawell, Kristen Robbins defeated the GOP endorsed candidate Brad Ganzer, a local businessman, in the August primary in a bit of a surprise. Robbins has been running a solid campaign, and is clearly the favorite against DFL navy veteran Dan Solon. It’s rich suburbia, so it isn’t off the table for a Dem pickup, but the odds are not in Solon’s favor. Incumbent Republican Dennis Smith (R), is running against his 2016 opponent Kristin Bahner in 34B. This race never got much attention in 2016, and in spite of Bahner not having much of a campaign that year, she got within 10 to the much better prepared and funded Smith. This year, Dems are taking this race very seriously. Bahner hasn’t had the eye-popping fundraising numbers that some other high profile Dem challengers have, but she has still outraised Smith, though Smith is banking on his 2016 warchest to save him and isn’t doing so well fundraising this cycle. Smith is heavily connected to former Speaker Kurt Zellers, his predecessor in this seat, and thus has all of the connections any politician could want. I don’t think it’s enough to save Smith, as him not raising money is a red flag, and this is one of the bluest GOP held seats (Dems outnumbered Reps 60.8-39.2 in the primary) and is in that rich white suburban areas that are repulsed by Trump. I think it’ll be close, but I give Bahner the edge, which is remarkable as I had this race rated as Safe R in this matchup just last cycle.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 57-40
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Clinton (D) 47-43
McFadden (R) 51-46
Tilt D (flip)
District 35: This is the district straddling the Mississippi River in central Anoka County including Anoka and Coon Rapids. It has long had a quirky libertarian streak to it, and was the strongest area for Jesse Ventura in 98. Libertarianish Republican Jim Abeler is the State Senator here, and is a Paulite and fits the district incredibly well, but his seat isn’t up this cycle. The A side of 35 is home to GOP Representative Abigail Whelan who is retiring… at the ripe old age of 30. She has taken a job in England and is leaving the country, therefore has to leave her post in St. Paul. Neither party got great candidates here, with Republicans putting up Iraq War veteran John Heinrich and Dems putting up college administrator Bill Vikander. This is a quirky area, so it is tough to handicap with 2 C-list candidates that aren’t raising gobs of cash. I give the advantage to Heinrich, though that is at best a guess based on limited information and the slight natural lean of the district. On the more Republican side, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is favored for her 6th term in the House against hospital employee Kathryn Eckhardt. Eckhardt has actually raised money on par with Scott, but it’s hard to see Scott losing in Andover.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 53-37
McFadden (R) 51-45
Tilt R
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 55-36
McFadden (R) 56-41
Likely R
District 36: This is moderate to DFL area along the Mississippi river in the NW suburbs, with B being slightly more Democratic than A. Republicans have Mark Uglem in 36A. Uglem is the most liberal Republican in the Minnesota legislature, and was a center-left GOP mayor of Champlain before winning his seat in 2012. Uglem is retiring after this cycle, and the GOP has nominated local high school teacher and wrestling coach Bill Maresh. Maresh comes from a prominent local Mormon and wrestling family. Maresh is considerably more conservative than Uglem, and may not be the best fit for this UMC suburban seat. Maresh faces off against Dem lawyer Zach Stevenson. Stevenson and Maresh have both raised respectable amounts of money and seem to be running competent campaigns. The big number that pops out to me when deciding to project this race is the 2018 primary numbers: Dems outvoted Republicans 60-40 in August. I give the slightest advantage to Stevenson because of that. 7-term incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories, getting 51-56% against strong GOP opposition. For the first time in her career, it appears as though Melissa Hortman can rest easily on the eve of Election Day, as the GOP has completely punted on this seat. The GOP has a name on the ballot: Jermain Botsio, but Botsio has raised zero money and doesn’t have a campaign website, so Hortman is Safe, for the first time.
House A
Romney (R) 49-48
Trump (R) 47-44
McFadden (R) 48.45-47-49
Tilt D (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Clinton (D) 52-40
Franken (D) 52-44
Safe D
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, perhaps left leaning in the Era of Trump, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998, much like the adjacent district 35. 36A: The DFL won one of the narrowest elections in the state in 2016 when Erin Koegel edged out Republican Anthony Wilder. Unsurprisingly, Wilder is back for a rematch. Koegel isn’t setting the world on fire this cycle with fundraising of campaigning, but Wilder has all but disappeared, raising almost no money and apparently not campaigning. That simply isn’t going to cut it for a GOP challenger in suburbia this cycle. GOP incumbent Nolan West was forced to resign from his position as a GOP staffer in 2016 because of a number of super racist Facebook posts, including “It’s lynching time” in response to Obama winning election, even with being cut loose by the GOP and becoming a social leper, he managed to win a very narrow win that cycle. To the surprise of most, he decided to run for reelection this cycle. Unsurprisingly, donors have kept their purse strings shut for him and hasn’t been allowed to appear with other politicians going through the area campaigning (a huge snub). Dems nominated attorney Amir Malik. Malik is a prohibitive favorite and has campaigned circles around Nolan.
House A
Obama (D) 53-44
Trump (R) 46-45
Franken (D) 53-43
Likely D
House B
Romney (R) 49-48
Trump (R) 48-43
McFadden (R) 50-47
Likely D (flip)
District 38: This district includes red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in. This is fairly sparsely populated space speckled with McMansion housing developments. 30-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck is running for a 16th term in 38A, and will safely win it against her 2016 opponent Kevin Fogarty. Former Majority Leader Matt Dean is retiring, leaving open is light red House 38B seat. Republicans got their biggest recruit of the entire cycle here, where former State Auditor (03-07) Pat Anderson is running for this seat in the lower chamber of the legislature. She has the name recognition and has shown that despite a decade plus out of elected office hasn’t lost her campaigning ability. Dems are running their 2016 challenger to Dean: teacher Ami Wazlawik. Wazlawik has actually kept up on the fundraising numbers with Anderson, which is a bit of a surprise. Anderson being the more seasoned politician and this seat being a tick to the right of the state as a whole, starts out as a small favorite, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Wazlawik pulls it out in the end, as this is an open UMC suburban seat in 2018.
House A
Romney (R) 54-44
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 52-45
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Trump (R) 46-45
McFadden (R) 52-45
Lean R
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by Red Forest Lake. This is Senator Karin Housley’s district. Housley isn’t up for reelection this year, though she is running for US Senate against Tina Smith. Minnesota doesn’t have a resign to run law, so this is a free shot for her. If she were to win, this seat would have a special election early next year. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 6-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is running for reelection. Dettmer over performs pretty much every other Republican in the area, this his super weak fundraising totals are a bit of a red flag for his campaign. Dems are running lawyer Ann Mozey. Given Dettmer’s weak fundraising, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Mozey has outraised him significantly. I don’t personally believe this will be enough for Mozey to overcome Dettmer’s incumbency advantage, but it prevents Dettmer from being considered safe. In the Stillwater-based district, Republican Kathy Lohmer (R) who was swept into office in 2010 is running for her 5th term. Lohmer has proven to be quite the adept campaigner, but Democrats are going for the district. Dems recruited retired teacher and track coach Shelley Christiansen. Christian has outraised Lohmer, though it is clear that the latter is taking this race seriously. Lohmer clearly has the edge, though it would not be surprising to see her go down in this Stillwater-based suburban seat. FWIW, this is directly across the river from that big WI-SD10 special election that sent shockwaves when it turned out to be a Dem blowout in a red seat.
House A
Romney (R) 53-45
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 52-45
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 50-48
Trump 45.8-45.5
Franken (D) 48.69-48.08
Lean R
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson actually drew and opponent this year, though he was unopposed in 2016 and 2012. Republican David True is going to be beaten 3:1 or more. Nelson was first elected in 2002, and hasn’t had a serious challenge to his tenure since. 40B Rep Debra Hilstrom is retiring, as she ran unsuccessfully for the DFL nomination for Attorney General against Keith Ellison. There was a hotly contested primary between two members of the Hmong community: Samantha Vang and Cindy Yang. Ultimately Samantha Vang won the primary in August, and now has a seat in the House for life if she wants it.
House A
Obama (D) 70-29
Clinton (D) 67-26
Franken (D) 65-32
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 68-29
Clinton (D) 65-27
Franken (D) 65-31
Safe D
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area when I was younger. Connie Bernardy (DFL-41A) is running for reelection again, now in her second stint in the legislature. Bernardy is a sharp politician and this is a friendly district for her, so she is safe against Republican Susan Erickson. Mary Kunesh –Podein is running for her second term against perennial candidate Tim Utz. Utz has run as a Republican, Independence Party, Reform Party, Constitution Party, and now as a true independent. He won’t be winning, but he keeps on trying. No Republican filed for the race.
House A
Obama (D) 59-38
Clinton (D) 55-35
Franken (D) 58-38
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 62-35
Clinton (D) 61-29
Franken (D) 62-34
Safe D
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B). Randy Jessup won in 2016 as narrowly as he lost in 2014. The woman he faced in both elections is not running for a rubber match, but Assistant Hennepin County Attorney Kelly Moller is in, and has been crushing it on the campaign train. Jessup has raised a respectable amount of money, but Moller has more than doubled it, and all signs point to a pretty solid win for Moller in this UMC suburban district. Dems got a whopping 70% of the primary vote in August, and Clinton won it by 14. Jessup carried the district by 125 votes, and is almost assuredly going to lose in November. In 42B, Democrats have gone incumbent (and former Assistant Hennepin County Attorney in her own right) Jamie Becker-Finn, and Republicans have gone with youth pastor Yele-Mis Yang. Yang seems committed to running real campaign, but this year in this district is just not going to happen for her.
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
Clinton (D) 52-38
Franken (D) 53-44
Likely D (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
Clinton (D) 55-35
Franken (D) 57-40
Safe D
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL. If anything, district 43 is slightly bluer than 42. In 43A, Peter Fischer is running for his 4th term against Republican challenger Bob Cardinal for the second time in as many cycles. Cardinal is a former mayor of Maplewood, and has been plagued with scandals causing him to lose his mayor’s job, and then fail at retaking it. He got wrapped up in a bit of a scandal akin to the one we saw sweep through Pennsylvania a couple years ago with judges and porn and lewd jokes. He didn’t file a pre-primary fundraising report (which means he raised $0), and doesn’t have a website. So while having a former mayor of the largest city in the district is generally a solid recruit, in this case it’s effectively meaningless. 43B, 7-term incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection, and is all but assured another term in the slightly bluer of these two House districts. Lillie faces Some Dude(tte) challenger Rachel Bucholz, FWIW.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Clinton (D) 53-38
Franken (D) 55-41
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
Clinton (D) 52-39
Franken (D) 56-40
Safe D
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has begun to show signs of leftward movement. While Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city, and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. Lots of action going on here, as seems to be a pattern in the western suburbs these days. 44A is the more Republican part of this district, and includes most of the city of Plymouth and is represented by Sarah Anderson (R). Sarah Anderson, at only 44 years old, may have a future in higher office down the road and would be a solid candidate to run for MN3 provided Paulsen does in fact lose this year (and Anderson somehow holds on). During last cycle’s roundup about how I figured Plymouth had hit the inflection point of electing Dems after a long history of voting Republicans for everything - the same thing Minnetonka did a decade earlier - and the 2016 election results bore that out pretty well with Clinton carrying it by 15 points, with greatly diminished Republican performance down ballot. Anderson won by 6 last cycle against DFL businesswoman Ginny Klevorn. Klevorn is back for Round 2 this cycle. Klevorn has outraised Anderson over 4:1, and it appears as though Anderson has outright been triaged by donors and the state GOP. I don’t know of any other Republican incumbents other than Nolan (racist mentioned above) and Anderson that have been cut loose outright. It’s weird to see in an area that has been so tightly contested for so long. Dems outvoted Reps in this district 64-36 during the primary, so I get it. In 44B, incumbent sophomore DFLer Jon Applebaum had the surprise retirement of the cycle. At the age of 33 and coming off of 2 VERY close and hard-fought election wins, he is hanging it up. This caught me off guard more than any other retirement this cycle. What caught me off even more was the GOP nominee for this seat. Republicans nominated Gary Porter, a former 2-term state representative, and former GOP congressional candidate and former State GOP Chairman. Pretty cool resume for a state house district right? It would be, except he did all of this in North Dakota. He served in the North Dakota State House, lost to Earl Pomeroy (D) in his 1994 congressional race, and ran the North Dakota GOP from 1995-1999. He has no ties to Minnesota and moved to the area In 2017. Needless to say, his candidacy has not amounted to nearly as much as it would have had he done all of that in Plymouth and not Fargo. Democrats have nominated a much more conventional candidate: Minnetonka City Councilwoman Patty Acomb. Acomb is a prohibitive favorite and no one really considers this much of a race. It’s bizarre to thing, as Appelbaum had to fight tooth and nail to hold down this seat for 2 cycles, but now it is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats hold it with little fanfare.
House A
Romney (R) 51-48
Clinton (D) 53-38
McFadden (R) 50-47
Likely D (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Clinton (D) 57-35
Franken (D) 55-43
Safe D
District 45: Cystal, New Hope and Golden Valley. My home! I bought a house in Golden Valley in 2015, so 2018 is my second GE in my current locale. Crystal and New Hope are more working class inner suburbs, while Golden Valley is more middle class to upper middle class and home to a little company called General Mills. Representative Lyndon Carlson has 45A here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 76 years old, is the Dean of the House and will be carried out of the Capital feet first. Republicans put up Some Dude Reid Johnson, but it will be 60-40 Johnson, as it seems to be about those numbers every cycle for him. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. I actually live just down the street from him. He faces Republican Steve Merriman in November. 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Clinton (D) 58-33
Franken (D) 58-38
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 63-34
Clinton (D) 63-27
Franken (D) 64-32
Safe D
District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is an aging center-left upper-middle-class suburb, similar to Golden Valley to the North. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state, though certainly not the most Democratic, electorally speaking. 46A incumbent Representative Peggy Flanagan (DFL) is not running again, as she is Tim Walz’s LG nominee. Former State Rep Ryan Winkler (DFL), represented this seat for 5 terms before resigning in 2015 to move to Belgium for his wife’s work, which relocated her there. Well, they are back in St. Louis Park now, and Winkler is running for his old seat again, and is going to win it handily against Republican Some Dude Luke McCusker. In incumbent Secretary of State Steve Simon’s old seat 45B, sophomore DFL Representative Cheryl Youakim is running against Republican Mellissa Moore, which she will win for her 3rd term
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Clinton (D) 66-26
Franken (D) 65-32
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 66-32
Clinton (D) 68-23
Franken (D) 67-30
Safe D
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here.. GOP incumbent Jim Nash (R-47A) faces token Democratic opponent Madalynn Gerold. Representative Joe Hoppe (R-47B) is not running for reelection. In his stead, Republicans have nominated Chaska City Councilman Greg Boe. Boe had a primary against a much Trumpier TEA Party type candidate Vince Beaudette. The primary was closer than would have been expected, but the mainstream traditional Republican candidate prevailed. Democrats nominated General Mills executive Denzell Leggett. This is tough territory for a Democrat, but Leggett is legit, having raised an astounding sum of money, well in excess of all but the highest fundraisers in the state this year, being the 3rd highest fundraiser of either party in the state. He has outraised Boe by an alarming 10:1(!!!). I can’t believe Democrats are sincerely thinking about winning a Chaska-based seat. But it seems as though it may happen? I even think it is slightly more likely than not to happen, which just goes to show how bizarre the 2018 electoral environment is.
House A
Romney (R) 63-35
Trump (R) 60-31
McFadden (R) 59-37
Safe Rele
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump (R) 47-44
McFadden (R) 52-46
Lean D (flip)
District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. For cycles in a row, HD48A has been home to some of the closest elections in the chamber, with Dems going 3-0 in that time, in no small part due to Republicans preferring staunch conservatives in the primaries that simply can’t get over the hump. The 2016 winner was Laurie Pryor, who is running for her second term against Ellen Cousins. Cousins isn’t a firebreather the way some of the other GOP nominees have been, and by all appearances is running a competent campaign and fundraising well. This just doesn’t seem like the year for wealthy suburbs to be shifting to the GOP column. Given just how close these races have been, and the fact that Cousins is a serious candidate, I will keep it at Lean D, but it may get moved to Likely D in the final projections around Halloween if things don’t change appreciably in Cousins’ favor. Jennifer Loon (R-48B) is the State Rep in Eden Prairie. Loon is probably best known as being the last woman standing following the RINO hunt that ensued after Minnesota passed its gay marriage legalization in 2013. Conservatives challenged in primaries all of the GOP backers of the bill, forcing some into retirement, and knocking off others. Loon, however, fended hers off, and earned herself some serious bipartisan cred in this socially liberal affluent suburban district. Dems kind of whiffed in this district, honestly. The only Dem to run is an IT worker Carlie Kotyza-Witthurn. Koyyza-Witthurt has raised decent money, but something just seems forced with this candidacy, and her resume is quite thin. It seems that Loon will be the Last (Republican) Woman Standing in affluent Hennepin County suburbia after this. Maybe the blue wave’s tide is high enough to sweep her out, but it seems less likely at the moment.
House A
Obama (D) 52-46
Clinton (D) 55-36
Franken (D) 52-45
Lean D
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
Clinton (D) 52-39
McFadden (R) 52-46
Lean R
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become politically marginal and stereotypically affluent, and a tinge blue. 49A is represented by freshman Republican Dario Anselmo. Anselmo narrowly defeated Republican-turned DFLer nonagenarian Ron Erhardt after Erhardt had a senior moment and got caught up in deep water for dated worldview and poor word choice. This year, Democrats are nominating therapist Heather Edelson, and Edelson has raised a boatload of money and is running a very strong campaign. I don’t see Anselmo holding on in the super-affluent and socially liberal Edina in this environment, not when he’s getting outraised 2:1. 49B, once about as politically even of a district as you would find anywhere, has moved left cycle over cycle, and is now firmly in the blue column, and getting more so every year. Paul Rosenthal, a mainstay in this district for a decade is standing aside, taking a job in Utah and leaving the state following the election. That leaves this district open. What would have been unthinkable just a few years ago is now a reality: Republicans aren’t contesting this seat. They have a name on the ballot: Matt Sikich, who put his name in on the last day for candidate filing, so it wouldn’t be blank. But he doesn’t have a website or raised any money and doesn’t appear to be campaigning at all. That means the seat will be won by the Democratic nominee: Metropolitan Council member Steve Elkins. The Met Council is a hugely powerful appointed body that has its fingers in everything from highway construction, to management of the MSP airport, to Twins/Vikings/Timberwolves/Wild stadiums and arenas to the light rail lines. Before being appointed to the Met Council, Elkins served on the Bloomington City Council. He is a polished politician and will hold this seat as long as he wants it.
House A
Obama (D) 52-47
Clinton (D) 59-32
Franken (D) 52-47
Likely D (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Clinton (D) 56-36
Franken (D) 53-45
Safe D
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually lived in this district for a time before I bought my house in Golden Valley. DFLer Linda Slocum in 50A is retiring due to worsening health. Michael Howard was talked out of his shoo-in run for mayor of Richfield, where he serves on the city council, in order to succeed Slocum. Howard is a long time Dem operative, and could have a future if he wanted a promotion at some point down the line. Republicans are running 2016 SD50 nominee Kirsten Johnson. Johnson lost her senate race by 21, and this is the bluer half of the district, so the election won’t be anything noteworthy. 50B was the sight of a massive turnover in 2016, and is probably easier to describe chronologically. Ann Leczewski (DFL) represented east Bloomington for many years before resigning in late 2015. In the 2016 special election, State Senator Dan Hall (R-56)’s son-son-in-law Chad Anderson (R) ran for the open seat and was a huge underdog against Democratic Bloomington City Councilman Andrew Carlson (DFL), but pulled out a shocking upset in February 2016. Fast-forward to the 2016 November election and there was the first rematch between the two, with the Democrat prevailing by a much more expected 8-point margin. Immediately, Anderson declared his intention for a rubber match in 2018. Though his campaign has been left for dead, and no one, likely not even him, believes this will be even close.
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Clinton (D) 61-30
Franken (D) 62-34
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
Clinton (D) 55-36
Franken (D) 56-41
Likely D
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This was really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012, yet the leftward trend of the area meant Dems maintained both of the House seats in 2014 and 2016. Sandra Masin (DFL) has won the last 3 elections for 51A in 2012 and 2014 after losing the 2010 election for it. Masin has drawn GOP lawyer Jim Kiner as an opponent, but is safe to win reelection this cycle. In the slightly redder 51B, incumbent Laurie Halverson (DFL) is facing off against retired Army Lieutenant Colonel for another term. Much like Masin, Halverson is a strong favorite against her GOP challenger.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Clinton (D) 54-37
Franken (D) 54-43
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 51-47
Clinton (D) 53-37
Franken (D) 52-46
Likely D
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to MN-2 in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle leftward on its PVI. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district in the southern part of 52B, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like a slightly redder District 50, which lies to the northwest. Rick Hansen is the DFL incumbent in 52A, and has been since 2004. Republicans nominated Beth Anrtson, but it should be expected that Hanson will win by his customer 20-25 point margins. Republicans managed to pick up HD52B when the long term moderate incumbent Joe Atkins retired and the much more liberal Mary T’Kach ran against Republican Regina Barr. Barr, now a freshman state legislator, is running for reelection for the first time. Democrats are going hard for this district and are backing Ruth Richardson, an attorney. Richardson isn’t any more moderate than T’Kach, but this year is more Dem friendly than 2016, though Regina is now an incumbent. I have a gut feeling that Regina holds on, but only barely.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Clinton (D) 56-35
Franken (D) 57-40
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Clinton (D) 49-42
Franken (D) 51-46
Tilt R
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood and Oakdale. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly Republican, with Oakdale being moderately Republican leaning. DFL Representative Joanne Ward has held 51A since 2012, and is retiring at age 72. This half of the district is more Democratic, and Democrats got a solid recruit in lawyer / Maplewood City Councilman Tou Xiong. Republicans got anti-tax activist Andy Turonie. Turonie doesn’t appear to have much of a campaign, though isn’t completely absent. Meanwhile Xiong has the second highest fundraising total of all Minnesota legislature candidates. Xiong is clearly angling either for a leadership position, or perhaps to succeed Betty McCollum in congress, if she ever retires. 53B is represented by sophomore state Rep Kelly Fenton (GOP). Fenton faces off against 78 year old retired teacher Steve Sandell (DFL). Sandell seems to be raising money, though it doesn’t seem likely he can unseat equally well-funded Fenton. If anti-Trump fever hits suburbia like a tsunami, this is one of the seats which will fall, though.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Clinton (D) 54-37
Fanken (D) 56-40
Likely D
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
Clinton (D) 50-42
McFadden (R) 52-46
Lean R
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another, with 54A being far more Democratic than 54B. This seat saw 3 open races in 2016, with Republicans winning both House seat while the Dems winning the Senate seat (go figure). That Democrat was Dan Schoen, one of the guys wrapped up and resigned in the #MeToo movement this cycle. Dems held his seat, though it wasn’t a huge over-performance the way some Dems had hoped, though it wasn’t a flip either, the way some Republicans hoped. 54A the more DFL friendly of the seats, and is centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). In a major upset in 2016, former St. Paul Park mayor Keith Franke (R-54A) won this Dem-leaning seat. He faces off against biologist Ann Claflin. Claflin is considered a moderate favorite, given the nature of the seat and the year and the fact she is running a competent campaign. 54B is swingy, and carried very narrowly by Obama, and then by Trump. Freshman GOP Rep Tony Jurgens is running for reelection against Hastings City Councilwoman Tina Folch. Money has poured into this race far more than next door in 54A. Folch has the clear cash advantage, though given the fact that this was an Obama-Trump district with an incumbent R, it shouldn’t be rated as more likely to flip than not.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Clinton (D) 50-42
Franken (D) 56-41
Lean D (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 49.15-48.57
Trump (R) 48-42
Franken (D) 50-46
Lean R
District 55: Scott County. This is mostly Republican territory, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is is almost all of of 55A). The action in 55A is no stranger to some political oddifies, with Loonan winning his primary in 2014 against a TEA Partier. Loonan is no moderate, though he has had some personal issues to say the least. Following a DWI, Loonan did lose his primary this year to Erik Mortensen. Mortensen is probably to the right of Loonan, but the endorsement and primary were about Loonan not being fit for office, and not really policy driven. Dems on the other hand got the strongest possible candidate in former mayor of Shakopee and current Chairman of the Shakopee Chamber of Commerce. Tabke is running hard to the middle, which would likely be necessary to win election here, and realistically is probably where his heart truly is based on how he governed the city from 2013-2017. Tabke is clearly an underdog in this seat, but don’t discount the possibility of an upset here, as this is still suburbia, albeit the conservative side of it. 58B incumbent Tony Albright has settled nicely into incumbency in his cozy Republican district. He does face 2010 Democratic nominee for HD35A (55B’s predecessor district under the old lines) Matt Christiansen. Albright is safe.
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Trump (R) 47-43
McFadden (R) 51-45
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 60-38
Trump (R) 57-34
McFadden (R) 58-38
Safe R
District 56: This is swingy Burnsville and a sliver of Apple Valley to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A). 25 year old sophomore incumbent Drew Christensen (R-56A), no relation with Dem 55B nominee, and not to be confused with his 2016 opponent Jared Christiansen either, is running for reelection. Democrats didn’t get hit a home run with the recruitment process here, settling on Dem Some Dude Hunter Cantrell. Cantrell, like most every Dem in a suburban district has money in his campaign account, but that is almost certainly going to be insufficient here. A stronger recruit could have made this a solid pickup opportunity. 56B is a district Obama carried by 66 votes in 2012, and will likely be competitive up and down the ticket again this fall. 2-term incumbent Roz Peterson faces off against a much more touted recruit: Brazilian immigrant and physician Alice Mann. Mann has amassed quite the warchast, and Peterson has struggled to keep up on the campaign and finance sides. The slightest edge to Port, though this one will be close.
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Clinton (D) 47-44
McFadden (R) 51-46
Likely R
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Clinton (D) 48-43
McFadden (R) 49-48
Tilt D (flip)
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and slightly more Republican area around Apple Valley. This is the seat were Dems committed an unforced error. After Erin Murphy’s unexpected endorsement at the convention, she made perhaps the biggest blunder in modern DFL history: tapping Erin Maye Quade to be her runningmate. Not only was Maye Quade self-admittedly unprepared for the office and ignorant of even basic campaign issues, and that fact torpedoed Erin Murphy’s hopes in the primary, but it also left Democrats scrambling without a candidate in a narrowly divided HD57A that the Blue Team had just picked up in 2016. After a mad dash to the Secretary of State office to file paperwork and a quixotic primary of nobodies, Robert Bierman emerged as the Dem nominee. Unfortunately, unlike every other purple suburban seat, The Dem badly trails in terms of money and campaign infrastructure. GOP nominee Matt Lundin, a local realtor, is now a strong favorite to pick this seat up for the Republicans. In the slightly more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, 3-term incumbent Anna Wills (GOP) is running against DFL doctor John Huot for the second cycle in a row. Wills won 54-46 last time. This seat has pretty close fundraising totals, and with Wills having won the first round, she is the slight favorite for the rematch.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Clinton (D) 49-42
Franken (D) 50-47
Likely R (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Clinton (D) 48-44
McFadden (R) 49-48
Lean R
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This is pretty Republican turf (56% Romney). In the Lakeville based 58A freshman GOPer Jon Koznick is a prohibitive favorite against DFL Sume Dude(tte) Maggie Williams. Regardless, this district is quite red, and Koznick will win. Pat Garafalo has represented Farmington in the House since 2004, and will continue to do so until at least 2019. First he has to beat Marla Vagts, a local lawyer for a second time, after doing so 65-35 last cycle.
House A
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 56-41
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump (R) 57-35
McFadden (R) 53-43
Safe R
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary.
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. Fue Lee unseated a sitting state rep in the 2016 primary to get his seat. 59B Representative Raymond Dehn is running for reelection, though had to survive a contested primary against Lisa Neal-Delgado, where he prevailed 53-47.
House A
Obama (D) 84-14
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 80-17
Safe D
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and its large Somali community. Incumbent Diane Loeffler (DFL-60A) got a GOP challenger this cycle, unlike last cycle. Ihlan Omar, the Congresswoman in waiting for MN-5 represents 60B, but with her retirement she will be replaced by Mohamud Noor, a member of the Minneapolis School Board.
House A
Obama (D) 77-19
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 76-19
Safe D
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Representative Frank Hornstein is running for reelection for a 9th term. Former Speaker Paul Thissen in 60B hadresigned in February to focus on his ill-fated gubernatorial election. Thissen’s gubernatorial aspirations never panned out, but he was appointed to the Minnesota Supreme Court by Mark Dayton in May following the appointment of David Stras to the 8th Circuit federal court. Talk about falling upwards… Regardless, 61B gets a new Representative, and that will be Keith Ellison staffer Jamie Long.
House A
Obama (D) 78-19
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 78-20
Safe D
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. 62A Representative Karen Clark retired, and there was a crowded primary to replace her. The primary was won by Hodan Hassan, who will be elected in November. 62B Representative Susan Allen has also retired. There was no primary for her seat, as it was handled at the convention, and the next State Rep for 62B will be Aisha Gomez.
House A
Obama (D) 86-9
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 87-10
Safe D
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Long-time Incumbents Jim Davnie (63A), and Jean Wagenius (63B) are both returning for more time in St. Paul.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 74-24
Safe D
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Erin Murphy represents 64A, but ran for governor instead of reelection, leaving her seat open. She will be succeeded by Kaohly Her, a businesswoman and leader in the Hmong community. Dave Pinto (D-64B) is back for a 3rd term.
House A
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 70-27
Safe D
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Alice Hausman (66A) and John Lesch (66B) will be reelected to their House seats easily.
Senate
Safe D (Safe D)
House A
Obama (D) 66-32
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 79-19
Safe D (Safe D)
District 67: This is the eastern part of St. Paul. Tim Mahoney has represented eastern St. Paul in the House since the 1990s, and this year doesn’t even have a GOP challenger. After decades in office, Sheldon Johnson decided to retire from 67B, and he will be replaced by Jay Xiong, a St. Paul teacher.
Senate
Safe D (Safe D)
House A
Obama (D) 76-22
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 74-23
Safe D (Safe D)