Race Rating Changes:
• TX-Sen: (Likely R to Lean R): Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, the longest such streak of any state, but there are signs 2018 could bring that streak to an end. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz initially looked like a daunting target, particularly given how expensive Texas is to campaign in. But the biggest factor that’s put this race in play has also gone a long way toward mitigating that problem: the dynamic campaign of Rep. Beto O’Rourke, whose compelling candidacy has driven a massive influx of grassroots support, allowing him to outraise Cruz by a considerable margin.
Stunningly, that unexpected financial disparity has forced outside groups to devote precious resources to defend Cruz, who shouldn’t have needed any help in the first place. National Republicans, including Cruz’s home state Senate colleague John Cornyn, have also fretted about this race. Adding to Cruz’s difficulties, Trump's 52-43 victory in Texas was the weakest for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, thanks in part to changing voter demographics and an ongoing revolt against Republicans by college-educated suburban white voters.
Nevertheless, Cruz has led almost every poll by modest margins, and he's still favored, given Texas’ strong Republican lean and the fact that turnout among Hispanic voters still tends to lag those of other, more-conservative leaning groups. However, Cruz’s potential defeat no longer appears as shocking as it once had.
• WV-Sen: (Tossup to Lean D) Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin appeared to be in deep trouble at the beginning of the election cycle thanks to West Virginia’s love for Donald Trump, whom it backed by a 68-26 landslide in 2016. However, Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has struggled to gain traction in this ancestrally Democratic state and has faced hard-hitting attack ads eviscerating him for his previous career as a lobbyist for the pharmaceutical industry—a potent attack in a state ravaged by the opioid epidemic.
Manchin has led in every poll since the May primary except for one survey from a GOP firm that same month, and even a Harper Polling survey for Morrisey's allied 35th PAC still had Manchin up 47-41 in August. National Republicans had worried this summer that Morrisey wasn't doing what it would take to win, and despite West Virginia’s tough terrain, Manchin has emerged as the modest favorite.
• OH-01: (Lean R to Tossup) In contrast to most of Ohio, this light-red Cincinnati district has a considerable share of college-educated white suburban voters, the type who have been abandoning Republicans across the country. National Republicans have been pouring resources in to help GOP Rep. Steve Chabot fend off Democrat Aftab Pureval, and they’ve openly agonized that the incumbent isn’t prepared for a contested campaign. But that’s exactly what he's been getting, as both parties are treating this seat as highly competitive.
• TX-02: (Safe R to Likely R) Republican Dan Crenshaw has no obvious flaws and is still heavily favored this open Houston-area district that backed Trump by 52-43 and Mitt Romney by an even tougher 63-36, but the 2018 political environment has seen highly educated suburban voters like those who comprise much of the electorate here flocking to Democrats. With the DCCC starting to take more of an interest in Democrat Todd Litton by adding him to their Red to Blue list of top-level races and the unpredictability of an open suburban seat in Texas this year, we're putting this contest on the board.