The closer we get to the midterms, the more election observers are starting to see a Democratic takeover of the Senate as at least possible even if it's not probable.
Given the GOP’s 51-49 seat majority, Democrats need a net pick up of two seats. After releasing three Marist polls this week on key Senate races in GOP-held Tennessee and Democratic-held Indiana and Missouri, NBC News concluded the same thing as Rothenberg.
Yes, Democrats do have a legitimate path to retaking the Senate in November. Given the Senate map, it’s probably not the most likely outcome. But it’s a real possibility — more than most people might think.
The Marist results were as follows among “likely voters”:
Tennessee (open seat)
- Phil Bredesen (D) 48%
- Marsha Blackburn (R) 46%
Indiana (Democratic incumbent)
- Joe Donnelly (D) 49%
- Mike Braun (R) 43%
Missouri (Democratic incumbent)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 47%
- Josh Hawley (R) 47%
What flipping the Senate would take is Democrats managing to keep all their contested seats, including tight races in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia.
Can you give $3 to help push Democrats over the top in the Senate and restore sanity to our government?
And they would have to pick up two seats in one of four states people are watching: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, or Texas. (Frankly, Texas is the biggest outlier of those, while Tennessee is shaping up to be very possible.) OR ... Democrats could lose one seat and manage to pick up three.
But without getting into all the nitty-gritty of the polling numbers, keep this in mind: If Democrats have a good night on November 6, the chances of their incumbents holding their seats is extremely high based on historical trends. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver pointed out that of the 5 most recent elections he would consider a wave (1994, 2010, and 2014 for Republicans; 2006 and 2008 for Democrats), Senate incumbents for both parties went undefeated: 54 for 54.
So much of this election, as usual, will come to down to enthusiasm and turnout, both of which have trended toward Democrats in nearly every special election held since popular-vote-loser Donald Trump took office. The question is, how big will that trend continue to be two months from now?
The stars continue to align, with polls from several different directions forecasting a deep desire among a majority of voters to put a check on Trump's exceedingly corrupt administration. And not just any voters—swing voters in swing districts. At the same, we are watching what appears to be a meaningful dip in Trump's approval ratings accompanied by an upward trend in the generic ballot for Democrats.
Democrats are in their best position yet to take House.
And now the Senate is in play too.
Happy Friday!