New Year, new race ratings! Welcome to the January 2019 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Seats with an asterik next to them indicate seats whose final 2018 result is still in question so the incumbent party indicator is just my best guess. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
MN
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
DE-GOV
WA-GOV
|
NC-GOV |
LA-GOV
|
KY-GOV
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
MS-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
NJ-SEN
VA-SEN
|
|
AZ-SEN
CO-SEN (Tilt D)
ME-SEN (Tilt R)
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
CA-7
CA-21
CA-25
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-2
NJ-5
NV-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
IA-1
IA-3
IL-6
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
IL-14 (Tilt D)
GA-6 (Tilt D)
ME-2
MN-7
NC-9*
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-23
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
GA-7
IL-13
MI-6
NC-13
NY-24
NY-27
PA-10
TX-10
TX-24
WA-3
|
AK-AL
AZ-6
CA-22
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-3
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MO-2
MT-AL
NC-2
NY-1
NY-2
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-21
TX-22
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-8
|
Likely R to Lean R:
KY-GOV: Okay, Okay, I’ve seen the polls showing Bashear up, and I guess this isn’t a federal race so there’s probably at least a path to victory. Still, I’m not optimistic and I think polling tends to overestimate our support in Appalachia.
TX-10: Beto won the district.
TX-24: Another Beto district, and we came close last year with a candidate who was basically a nobody.
Lean R to Tossup:
LA-GOV: John Kennedy isn’t running, which is huge, but this is still a red state.
Tossup / Tilt R to Pure Tossup:
NC-9: *Shrug.* This rating especially is pretty meaningless, but I should note that it’s for the General Election in 2020, not the special that’s probably happening before then, and also assumes the current map will still be in place then (which is probably not a good assumption, but it beats trying to guess the partisanship of whatever districts the NC Supreme Court might draw).
Tossup / Tilt D to Leans D:
NC-GOV: Roy Cooper is probably the most popular politician in North Carolina right now.
Leans D to Likely D:
CA-25: With all the votes counted it looks like Katie Hill won by about 10 points, and I don’t see her losing with Trump at the top of the ticket.