The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by Stephen Wolf and David Beard, with additional contributions from James Lambert and Daniel Donner, and is edited by David Nir.
NB: Please be sure to check our calendar of international elections coming up in 2019 at the bottom of this post!
Leading Off
● United Kingdom – Brexit
Brexit has plunged the United Kingdom into deep turmoil, and no one knows how it will emerge. Below, we'll explore why the world's fifth-largest economy is mired in this fix, and what might happen next.
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Matters reached an ugly crescendo this week when Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May's "Brexit" deal—the U.K.'s transitional agreement with the European Union (EU) to leave the supranational union—went down to defeat in Parliament by a vote of 202-432 on Tuesday, the biggest loss for a motion put forward by a sitting British government in over 100 years. This in turn led to a vote of no confidence, which May and her Tories survived in spite of their humiliating failure a day earlier, winning 325-306 with the help of their allies, Northern Ireland's right-wing Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
Combined, these two votes kept the status quo in place, with May’s government surviving but also with no feasible deal to leave the EU capable of winning a parliamentary majority. But the clock is ticking: Brexit is currently scheduled to happen on March 29, with or without a deal. A "No Deal" or "hard" Brexit, where all trade between the U.K. and EU reverts to World Trade Organization (WTO) terms, would be the worst-case outcome for both the U.K. and the union, but hardline anti-Europe extremists nonetheless embrace the possibility.
How did the United Kingdom get stuck in this situation, careening towards a no-deal scenario that almost no one wants? There’s an epic quantum of blame to go around, and heaps of fault lie with former Tory Prime Minister David Cameron, who allowed the referendum in the first place, and Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was never able to articulate a clear stance against it, among many others (including Vladimir Putin).
But in terms of the morass the UK is in right now—that is to say, the government’s utter inability to come up with any sort of viable way for dealing with Brexit—there are four main players you can point a finger at. We’ll start with the most obvious: the prime minister herself.
1. Theresa May
May became prime minister in the wake of the Brexit referendum in 2016. She had supported staying in the EU but vowed to carry out the wishes of the so-called "Leave" faction, which won a narrow 52-48 majority. May was so set on following through with Brexit that she triggered its launch (a two-year process under the EU's governing treaty) on March 29, 2017 without much of a plan in place for how the U.K.'s departure would actually proceed. That’s what the two years were for, after all! May had a small but stable Tory majority for three more years to negotiate a planned, orderly Brexit before mandatory elections in 2020.
But what if instead, three weeks later, she called early elections?
Why would May do that? Well, she had a big polling lead over Labour (about 15 to 20 points), and she knew that Brexit would be easier to pass through Parliament if she had a larger majority, as the Tories were sharply divided over it. But May proceeded to run one of the worst campaigns in British history while Jeremy Corbyn and Labour ran one of the best, and May lost her majority entirely.
May managed to remain prime minister, however, thanks to an agreement with the DUP, which won 10 seats—just enough to stay in power. She also managed to retain her role as leader of the Conservative Party, despite the disastrous election outcome, because, frankly, no one else wanted to try to push Brexit through with a minority government.
It was at this point that May made her biggest Brexit-related error–even bigger than the election debacle.
It should have been clear to May that, given the deep divisions within her party, no Brexit deal could pass without significant Labour votes. But Labour's position in relation to Brexit was little better than the Tories', with some Labour Members of Parliament (MPs) calling for a second referendum, some advocating a "soft" Brexit (under which many ties to the EU would remain in place), and some open to a harder Brexit.
Had May sought to bring Labour into the fold and attempted a cross-party negotiation with the EU, she quite possibly would have been felled by a Tory rebellion. But by not trying, she all but guaranteed the current stalemate.
2. Jacob Rees-Mogg and the European Research Group
Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of the most conservative Tory MPs and one of the most outspoken Brexit supporters in Parliament. He leads the European Research Group, or ERG, a right-wing think-tank that supports a "hard" Brexit. Under such a scenario, the U.K. would sever most ties with the EU but pay a steep price economically and also bequeath itself some near-intractable problems, such as the prospect of reimposed border controls between the Republic of Ireland (an EU member) and Northern Ireland (a part of the U.K.)—more on that below.
Rees-Mogg and the ERG have been an ever-present thorn in May's side: They've opposed everything Brexit-related from the right and played a key role in the failed attempt to bring down May in December. While they don’t publicly advocate for an outright "No Deal" Brexit, the sense is that they wouldn’t mind it. Rees-Mogg even hosted a champagne party after May’s deal was defeated, if that gives you a sense of the kind of guy he is.
The ERG has threatened to bring down the government if the final Brexit deal isn’t hard enough, such as if it includes a customs union that would win over some Labour votes.
3. The DUP and the Good Friday Agreement
Despite the ERG's intransigence, and despite May’s refusal to seek cross-party support for a Brexit deal, there was a slim chance that an agreement could nonetheless have been cobbled together. There are Labour MPs who strongly supported Leave, and others who believe they have to follow through on what their constituents voted for, regardless of their personal feelings on the matter. Setting aside Northern Ireland, it's possible to imagine a deal that squeaks through with the support of most Tories, some Labour rebels, and the DUP.
But Northern Ireland does exist, and it remains raw from the low-level but often deadly guerrilla war known as "The Troubles" that lasted for 30 years, until it was brought to an end by the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.
To make a very long story short, peace in Northern Ireland was achieved in part because membership in the European Union minimized the difference between living in Ireland and Northern Ireland by diminishing the importance of the border between the two. As a key example, there are no custom checks on the island, and the border itself is now scarcely noticeable, much like it is when driving between U.S. states. Britain leaving the EU would seriously complicate this.
There are a number of issues, but the pivotal one is custom checks. If the U.K. and the EU don't form a customs union (something May has so far rejected and the ERG bitterly opposes), then there would have to be custom checks between the two. Ireland (and therefore the EU) rejects the re-introduction of custom checks or any kind of hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
An alternate proposal would leave Northern Ireland—but not the rest of the U.K.—in a customs union with the EU and establish customs checks between the two islands (that is, Ireland and Great Britain). But the DUP is fanatically devoted to ensuring that Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom and therefore opposes, along with many Tories, any plans that would treat the country differently from the rest of the U.K.
In other words, to reach a deal, the U.K. would need custom checks somewhere, but not on the island of Ireland and not along the Irish Sea. The basic topographic impossibility of such a notion vividly illustrates the insoluble nature of this issue.
May's deal would have punted the issue to the next stage of talks: Believe it or not, this is only a transitional agreement; the U.K. and the EU would still have to negotiate a final status agreement. It calls for a backstop if an agreement is not reached on the issue that would temporarily keep the U.K. aligned with the EU's customs regime until the EU and the U.K. agree it’s no longer needed.
But if that backstop were to remain, a future British government could change its custom rules but would have to leave Northern Ireland on the other side of the "customs" border. This made no one happy, least of all the DUP, since such a possibility would of course raise the prospect of different treatment for Northern Ireland. The DUP therefore opposed the agreement and threatened to bring down the government—on whose support it's dependent—if it passed.
4. Moderate, pro-"Remain" Tories
Far less coherent than either the ERG or the DUP are pro-EU Tories, who supported the "Remain" campaign and would like to see a close relationship with the union even after Brexit (similar to Norway’s arrangement with the EU despite its lack of membership). This faction has been far more loyal to May and their party than the ERG and has not threatened to bring down the government over a Brexit agreement they oppose. In the same way that "moderate" Republicans in the U.S. always tend to cave to the party line in the end, these folks really don’t want to rock the boat.
So while the pro-Remain Tories have mostly been ignored during this process, the one red line they’ve put out is a refusal to accept "No Deal" Brexit. A handful of these folks have made it clear that if a rock-hard Brexit were to become inevitable, they would instead bring down the government to prevent it. And so far there’s no agreement that has anywhere near the votes to pass without lots and lots of Labour votes suddenly appearing, which would almost certainly set the ERG off.
What Happens Next
After surviving the no confidence motion, May said that she would launch talks with leaders of the other parties and speak with a variety of MPs to seek a way forward. Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, replied that he would not meet with May unless she took a "No Deal" Brexit off the table. Public jousting aside, there really doesn’t seem to be any clear plan in place to resolve this impasse.
May’s intention was to bring her deal back for a second vote, hoping that pressure from markets and the looming March deadline would swing votes, in much the same way that Congress passed its gigantic bank bailout on a re-vote as the 2008 financial crisis swept in. But the size of May's defeat, as well as an upcoming amendment that's likely to pass and would require the government to seek an extension to the March 29 deadline, renders that prospect highly suspect.
And even with this amendment, an extension would only delay a resolution. It doesn't solve any of the many, many problems facing May and the U.K. On top of that, elections for the EU Parliament set for May of this year would complicate any lengthy extensions, as the U.K. is not scheduled to take part in them.
May can only survive by kicking the proverbial can down the road, as there is no apparent way to either pass a deal and keep the government together, or to hold the government together through a Brexit that goes through without any deal. Yet May’s government continues to rule out anything that could possibly change the current facts on the ground, and so Brexit trudges on, with no end in sight but a drop-dead date that looms closer every day.
Notable Developments
● Armenia – Parliament (Dec. 9)
Journalist and protest leader Nikol Pashinyan became prime minister during Armenia's Velvet Revolution in April of last year, but he nonetheless failed to command a parliamentary majority. He's since remedied this by calling snap elections in October, which took place last month and ushered in a landslide victory, with Pashinyan's My Step Alliance taking 88 of the 132 seats in parliament. Two other parties, the center-right Prosperous Armenia and the classically liberal Bright Armenia, won the remaining seats.
The right-wing Republican Party of Armenia, which had won a majority in 2017 and sparked the backlash that eventually toppled it by nominating former President Serzh Sargsyan as prime minister, won only 4.7 percent of the vote, missing the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. Ironically, the Republican Party had successfully blocked a series of electoral reforms earlier in the year that would have lowered the threshold to 4 percent.
● Australia – Victoria State Parliament (Nov. 24)
Labor won an unexpectedly large victory in Victoria, Australia's second-most populous state, despite pre-election fears it could lose its narrow majority. The party won 55 of the 88 seats, an increase of 8 seats from 2014. The center-right Liberal/National Coalition dropped to just 27 seats, while three Green MPs and two independents were also elected.
The Coalition waged an aggressive "law and order" campaign, promising to crack down on the state's supposed crime problem, but it failed to persuade voters and likely even backfired. The alliance was also weighed down by controversies at the federal level, including former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull ouster as leader of the Coalition's Liberal Party at the national level and his subsequent resignation from Parliament. Turnbull had represented the conservative eastern suburbs of Melbourne, where Labor did unexpectedly well.
Labor largely focused on the contrast of their intention to spend more on transportation and health care with federal cuts carried out by the Coalition. The Victoria results could bode well for Labor, especially since the next federal election will take place soon, likely in May. If the Coalition faces a similar setback then, it's all but certain to lose its narrow grip on Parliament.
● Belgium – Parliament (May 26)
Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel resigned after a Flemish nationalist party pulled support for the government over Belgium's endorsement of the United Nations Global Compact for Migration. The compact is not legally binding but calls for signatories to treat migrants with dignity and help them integrate into their new societies, which of course the nationalists hate. However, Belgium's King Philippe has asked Michel to remain prime minister in a caretaker capacity until previously scheduled elections in May take place, rather than calling snap elections sooner.
● El Salvador – president (Feb. 3)
Three major candidates are running in El Salvador's presidential election, whose first round will take place Feb. 3, with a run-off on March 10 if no candidate receives a majority. The leading candidate is Nayib Bukele, the mayor of the capital of San Salvador and a former member of the country's leading left-wing party, FMLN. Bukele is only 37 and has a large social media presence, including 1.3 million followers on his Facebook page. To put that in perspective, if all of his fans were El Salvadorian (and none were bots), that would represent fully 20 percent of the country's population.
However, FMLN kicked Bukele out in 2017, claiming he'd criticized the party too much, and then maneuvered to prevent him from starting a new political party which would allow him to run for president. But Bukele found a way around this problem by eventually allying himself with a small center-right party (GANA) to get himself on the ballot. While the 2014 race was a nail-biter between FMLN and the right-wing ARENA party, Bukele holds a large lead over both the FMLN and ARENA candidates and could break 50 percent in the first round.
● Germany – CDU leadership election (Dec. 7)
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (often referred to as just "AKK"), Angela Merkel's preferred successor, narrowly won the leadership of the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and will almost certainly take the party into the next election. AKK defeated two more conservative rivals and is expected to keep CDU on Merkel's moderate center-right path. She had previously served as secretary general of the party and as the top executive of the small German state of Saarland. The next federal election is scheduled for 2021 but could take place earlier.
● Greece & Macedonia – Macedonia name-change deal
Greece and Macedonia are closer to finally resolving their dispute over the latter's legal name, which Greece has long objected to and used as a reason to block its northern neighbor's bids to enter the European Union and NATO. Both countries reached a deal last year for Macedonia to rename itself as North Macedonia, which would distinguish it from Greece's province of Macedonia. Earlier this month, Macedonia's Social Democrat-led coalition narrowly won over enough members of the opposition to attain the two-thirds supermajority to change the republic's name, following a successful voter referendum last fall.
Greece's parliament, however, still has to approve the deal. Leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras only barely survived a no-confidence vote this month by a 151 to 148 margin after his right-wing nationalist partners withdrew from the governing coalition over the agreement, leaving Tsipras' Syriza party several seats shy of a majority. But Tsipras hung on thanks to the support of several MPs who aren't part of the government but nevertheless support the Macedonia agreement. The confidence vote therefore looks like a proxy for approval of the deal, which would clear the way for Greece to withdraw its objections to Macedonia joining the EU and NATO.
However, Tsipras' government remains unpopular and faces new elections by October. There's therefore no guarantee that the deal will pass, and there's no telling how future relations between the two countries will unfold if Syriza loses when it next faces the voters.
● Israel – Parliament (April 9)
Israel's right-wing government has called early elections in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will try to win a record fifth term in office, despite the real possibility that Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit will announce his intention to indict Netanyahu next month. A series of long-running corruption investigations have resulted in three recommendations from the police that Netanyahu be charged with bribery, though the ultimate decision to press charges rests with Mandelblit
Despite the looming possibility of an indictment, though, Netanyahu's support within his Likud party has not eroded, and Likud's current standing in the polls is equivalent to its 2015 results. However, an actual announcement could shake up how both the voters and the party leadership feels. But if Netanyahu escapes indictment or maintains his support despite one, it's difficult to imagine him not winning the election in the face of a divided and weak Israeli left and center. Were Netanyahu to fall, though, all bets are off.
● Madagascar – president (Dec. 19)
Andry Rajoelina, who served as Madagascar's "transitional president" from 2009 to 2013, comfortably won a run-off election against former president Marc Ravalomanana, the man he helped bring down in a 2009 coup. Ravalomanana has challenged the results in court, claiming that the country's electoral commission "facilitated fraud," but EU observers have reported that the vote was peaceful and transparent.
● Spain: Andalusia – Regional parliament (Dec. 2)
Andalusia, Spain's biggest region and home to one-fifth of the country's population, saw the center-left ousted from power after 36 consecutive years of governance. Vox, a far-right party founded in 2014, won seats for the first time; along with the center-right People's Party (PP) and moderate center-right Ciudadanos, parties on the right won 59 out of 109 seats. The center-left Socialists (PSOE) lost 14 seats and suffered its worst showing in Andalusia since democracy returned to Spain in the 1970s.
Ciudadanos had resisted entering into a formal coalition with Vox or even negotiating with them, but PP was able to conclude separate agreements with both parties to support its candidate, Juan Manuel Moreno, for president of the regional government. The Andalusia results are likely a bad portent for PSOE at the federal level, where it came to power last year but is already likely to face new elections later this year.
● Sweden – government formation
Four months after September's elections resulted in no political alliance capable of commanding a majority in Parliament, the center-left bloc, led by Social Democrat Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, secured a second consecutive term in government after Lofven's coalition with the Green Party won the support of the center-right Centre Party and Liberals, allowing them to continue on as a minority government. This outcome came about after the Centre and Liberals had balked at supporting a conservative coalition led by their Moderate Party allies that would have also relied on the far-right Sweden Democrats.
This deal means that the Liberals and Centre Party won't vote to bring down the government on key votes like the budget, but they won't participate as full governing partners. This minority government may therefore ultimately prove unstable.
Calendar of key international elections in 2019
Below is our calendar of key 2019 elections in countries whose elections are, by and large, free and fair, such as France or India. We also include some countries whose electoral practices don't conform to traditional democratic norms but where, nevertheless, election outcomes are uncertain and can have an impact on how power is distributed and exercised, such as Iran or Venezuela. We do not list countries with entirely un-free sham elections, like Russia.
