The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● KS-Sen: The Washington Post reported on Thursday that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is personally trying to convince U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a former Kansas congressman, to leave Trump's cabinet and seek the Republican nomination to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts. They write that McConnell believes that Pompeo could clear the field and avert an expensive and potentially bloody primary. Pompeo's spokesperson only said of a Senate bid that he was "focused on serving the president and keeping Americans safe as the secretary of state," which very much doesn't rule anything out.
Campaign Action
However, while Pompeo isn't saying no to a bid, it's not clear exactly how interested he is. One unnamed top Republican expressed skepticism that he was interested in giving up his high-profile job as secretary of state to be a junior senator. However, another unidentified person who has been in contact with Pompeo told the Post that, given how dysfunctional the Trump administration is, he may want to "parachute out if things get bad." However, the paper also says that, for once, Trump actually wants to keep a cabinet official onboard, and that he very much doesn't want Pompeo going anywhere.
For now, Pompeo's deliberations seem to be freezing up the field, with the Kansas City Star's Lindsay Wise saying that it's "causing something of a kerfuffle in the Kansas GOP as potential candidates, consultants and donors try to decide whether to jump into the 2020 race." One prospective candidate, Kansas Chamber of Commerce head Alan Cobb, outright told the paper that he'd defer to Pompeo. The only announced GOP candidate is state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, who only said that "Mike Pompeo gets to decide what Mike Pompeo wants to do."
It's far from clear how long Mike Pompeo will take to decide what Mike Pompeo wants to do. Unnamed associates told the Post that he's in no hurry to decide, while state party chair Kelly Arnold said Pompeo could wait until the June 2020 filing deadline. However, state Republican National Committeeman Mark Kahrs wants a decision long before then, saying that Pompeo "would need to make that announcement sometime this year" so the party could avoid a big primary. Kahrs adds that, until they hear from Pompeo, other Republicans will move forward with their bids.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: A few days ago, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego said that when it came to a potential Senate bid against appointed GOP incumbent Martha McSally, he was "basically making the final decision and we'll have that in the next couple weeks," which made it sound like we'd be getting an announcement soon. However, unnamed sources tell The Hill that, while Gallego is likely to decide whether to run in the next few weeks, he probably wouldn't be announcing anything before Phoenix's special election for mayor takes place on March 12.
Kate Gallego, the congressman's former wife, is the frontrunner in the mayoral race against Daniel Valenzuela, another former city councilor and a fellow Democrat. The Gallegos reportedly still have a strong relationship, and it sounds like these unnamed sources believe that the congressman doesn't want to do anything that might disrupt Kate Gallego's campaign.
Astronaut Mark Kelly and former state Attorney General Grant Woods, who was previously elected as a Republican, have also talked about seeking the Democratic nod, and they've each reportedly met with the DSCC. However, one name we haven't heard from recently is freshman Rep. Greg Stanton. Last month, Politico reported that Stanton was eyeing this race, but there haven't been any reports about him meeting with national Democrats since then. The Hill writes that Stanton is "keeping his options open" for a 2022 run for governor, when GOP incumbent Doug Ducey will be termed-out, but he's "unlikely" to run for the Senate next year.
● ME-Sen: Businessman Daniel Kleban, who co-owns a local beer company and is active with environmental groups, told the Bangor Daily News that he was interested in seeking the Democratic nod to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
A number of local politicians have expressed interest in running, but no notable candidates have jumped in yet. State House Speaker Sara Gideon says she's met with both the DSCC and EMILY's List, but has no timeline for deciding. However, Gideon said that she believed a top-tier candidate would need to get in during the first half of 2019.
Former Speaker Hannah Pingree just was nominated by Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to lead the state Office of Innovation and the Future, but she says that, while she's concentrating on state work, she hasn't "counted out that opportunity in 2020." Pingree's mother, Rep. Chellie Pingree, has previously refused to rule out anything, but it doesn't sound like she'll decide anytime soon. The congresswoman's chief of staff says she's focusing on the federal shutdown and the Senate race is "the furthest thing on her mind right now." The elder Pingree ran against Collins in 2002 and lost 58-42.
Another old Collins foe also isn't saying no. State Sen. Shenna Bellows, a former executive director of the state ACLU, lost 68-32 two years before she was elected to the legislature. Bellows only told the paper she was "focused on the state Senate."
House
● IA-01: GOP state Rep. Ashley Hinson said Friday that she was "considering [her] options and hope to make a decision in the next few weeks" on a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer. NRCC chief Tom Emmer seems to think she's in, because he said the previous day that Hinson had approached them the day Finkenauer was sworn in "and said she's running."
● IA-04: A group called Majority Rules PAC, which describes itself as "focused on ensuring that the election of the president and vice president honors the will of the people of the United States," is out with a poll from 20-20 Insight that finds GOP Rep. Steve King trailing Democrat J.D. Scholten 44-39 in a hypothetical rematch. Last year, King won just 50-47 in what's normally a reliably red seat.
● GA-06: On Friday, GOP state Sen. Brandon Beach filed with the FEC to raise money for a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath. Beach has not yet said anything publicly about his 2020 plans. (Hat-tip: Greg Giroux.)
● PA-12: GOP Rep. Tom Marino's upcoming resignation will lead to a special election in this rural central Pennsylvania seat, and at 66-30 Trump, it's a very appealing opportunity for many local Republicans. The GOP nomination will be decided at a convention rather than through a primary, and the National Journal takes a look at who could run―including one familiar name we hoped we'd heard the last of.
Former GOP Rep. Lou Barletta left the House to run against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey last year and got trashed 56-43, but he had little troubling winning this area. Barletta hasn't said anything yet about a comeback, but his former campaign manager says there's interest in GOP circles in him running here, adding, "I'm sure he's going to get a lot of pressure." Barletta's hometown of Hazleton, where he was mayor before he was elected to the House, is in the nearby 9th District, and Barletta only represented about 10 percent of this seat until this January, when his time in the House ended and Pennsylvania's new map took effect.
However, that may not be much of a problem if the party leaders who will be picking the nominee think highly of Barletta after his failed Senate run. Barletta, who got his start demonizing undocumented immigrants in Hazleton and spent his time in Congress giving interviews and speeches to xenophobic groups, was also a Trump favorite, so if the White House weighs in on his behalf, it could go a long way toward getting him back to Congress.
A number of other Republicans are also eyeing this seat. State Reps. Jeff Wheeland, Fred Keller, and John Fritz all say they're interested, with Wheeland saying Thursday that he'd decide in the next couple of days. Businessman Jeff Stroehmann, who lost an incredibly crowded 2008 primary to now-Rep. Glenn Thompson for what was then the 5th District, also isn't ruling it out. Former Snyder County Commissioner Malcolm Derk, who lost in the 2010 primary to Marino, is also not ruling it out, but he doesn't sound very enthusiastic.
In the rumored-to-be-interested column are state Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman; state Sen. Gene Yaw; Lycoming County Commissioner Tony Mussare; former state Farm Bureau President Keith Eckel; and Marino's district director, Dave Weber. However, some Republicans are skeptical either Corman or Yaw would want to give up powerful positions in the state Senate majority to go to D.C. and go straight to the minority. GOP operatives also say they expect former Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko, who lost in the 2018 primary to Marino, to run again.
The list is far shorter on the Democratic side. Northumberland County Commissioner Kymberley Best did express interest, saying she was "gathering a bipartisan committee to explore the opportunity to become the 12th Congressional District's first congresswoman."
Mayoral
● Chicago, IL Mayor: On behalf of state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, Global Strategy Group is out with the first poll we've seen from anyone in 2019 of the Feb. 26 nonpartisan primary, and they argue that Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle has taken a hit over the last month. They find Preckwinkle and Mendoza tied 11-11, while former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley is just behind with 9.
A previously unreleased GSG poll from December had Preckwinkle leading Mendoza 19-11, while Daley was at 8. They also find Mendoza improving her position in a hypothetical April 2 general election against Preckwinkle. The new survey finds the comptroller ahead 43-30, while she led just 39-38 last month. By contrast, they have Mendoza defeating Daley 45-30, which GSG says is similar to December. Preckwinkle has faced some bad headlines since then over her ties to Alderman Ed Burke, who was indicted this month for corruption, but we don't have any other data to point to that would indicate if the story has hurt her at the polls.
● Dallas, TX Mayor: On Friday, former Dallas City Attorney Larry Casto announced he was dropping out of the May 4 nonpartisan primary and backing prominent developer Mike Ablon. Casto had entered the race in late November but had trouble raising money, and he reported having nothing in the bank at the end of the year.
We also have our first campaign finance reports from the remaining candidates who announced they were in before the end of the year, which cover all of 2018. The one person who entered the race before November is former Dallas Housing Authority chair Albert Black, who jumped in back in July.
- Developer Mike Ablon: $104,000 raised, additional $100,000 self-funded, $139,000 cash-on-hand
- Businessman Albert Black: $278,000 raised, $131,000 cash-on-hand
- Philanthropist Lynn McBee: $258,000 raised, $255,000 cash-on-hand
- Attorney Regina Montoya: $86,000 raised, additional $101,000 self-funded, $154,000 cash-on-hand
These reports do not include City Councilor Scott Griggs, Dallas Independent School District Trustee Miguel Solis, or former GOP state Rep. Jason Villalba, who each announced they were running in January.
● Denver, CO Mayor: Denver Mayor Michael Hancock, a Democrat, is seeking a third term in the May 7 nonpartisan contest. Under Hancock, Colorado's largest city has seen rapid growth and a generally strong economy, and the Mile-High City is currently rebuilding major cultural and infrastructure projects. However, the city has also been dealing with rising housing costs, and Hancock has been criticized for "homeless sweeps" that clear out homeless encampments on the sidewalks and in parks.
The mayor has also had to deal with the fallout from a scandal. Last year, texts from 2012 became public where Hancock told a member of his security detail named Leslie Branch-Wise that she looked "sexy" in black and asked her if she had an interest in pole dancing. Hancock apologized for these messages, but argued that he didn't see them as sexual harassment. Branch-Wise didn't agree, and she later said that she believed a $75,000 settlement she received from the city in 2013 to settle another matter was really to keep her quiet about this.
However, in April, the City Council announced that, while it viewed Hancock's behavior as "unacceptable," they would not investigate it. The matter has largely been out of the news since the spring, with Branch-Wise only making news later this year after the police department suspended her for executing a search warrant on the wrong home. Still, it's likely this scandal will come up again on the campaign trail.
Hancock faces a few opponents in May. His best-funded foe is Jamie Giellis, who has been a key figure in redeveloping the River North Art District (RiNo). Giellis, who is arguing that the city isn't managing its rapid growth well, raised $210,000 from when she kicked off her bid in early November to the end of the year, and self-funded an additional $50,000. That's a comparable sum to what Hancock brought in for the final quarter of the year, though the incumbent started much earlier and has raised $1 million for his campaign so far.
Another candidate is former state Sen. Penfield Tate III, a Democrat who left the legislature in 2003; Tate ran for mayor that year but took fourth place in the primary with just 12 percent of the vote. Tate is focusing on gentrification, and he's also declared that Hancock committed sexual harassment. However, Tate brought in only $82,000 during his first quarter in the race. Also in the running is criminal justice activist Lisa Calderon, who took in $26,000. If no one takes a majority of the vote in May, there would be a June 4 runoff. The candidate filing deadline is March 13.
● Fort Worth, TX Mayor: Fort Worth's Tarrant County has been a GOP stronghold for a while, but Team Blue was encouraged by Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke's narrow victory there last year, and by wins in a local state Senate and county commission race. They're hoping to give Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price, a Republican who bragged last year that "Fort Worth is one of the largest conservatively led cities around," a serious fight this year as she seeks a fifth two-year term as head of America's 15th-largest city.
Price won her last campaign two years ago 70-30 against a political newcomer, and she's likely the favorite in the May 4 nonpartisan contest. (Should no one win a majority then, there would be a June runoff.) However, Democrats are fielding their first credible candidate in a while, with Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Deborah Peoples, a former AT&T vice president, kicking off her bid on Tuesday.
In her announcement, Peoples hit Price for the state of the local police. She emphasized how, the day she announced, five officers were fired for their role in the July death of a man in police custody, saying that, "Right now there is this sense of distrust between part of the population and the police department."
Peoples also went after the mayor for only belatedly calling for an audit on a development project in Fort Worth called Panther Island that has attracted plenty of scrutiny recently. Early last year, Price asked voters to approve a $250 million bond to the $1.16 billion project, which is overdue, over-budget, and under-funded. The bond passed, but in October, Price called for Panther Island to be scaled back and called for an audit to make sure it was being properly managed. Peoples argued that Price had only called for the audit once people began paying attention to all the problems, declaring, "That is not transparent."
Peoples' campaign also comes at a time when a progressive group called United Fort Worth, which grew out of the city council's refusal in 2017 to join other Texas cities in a lawsuit opposing the GOP state government's ban on sanctuary cities, has been gaining prominence. United Fort Worth has been protesting council meetings and arguing that Price and other local officials haven't done enough to condemn hate speech aimed at immigrants, as well as loudly speaking out against city policies they see as hurting people of color and low-income residents. The group is also running city council candidates this May.
● Kansas City, MO Mayor: Campaign finance reports are out, and they give us a better idea of which candidates are capable of running a serious race in the extremely crowded April 2 nonpartisan primary.
The local media has described City Councilor Jolie Justus, a former state Senate Democratic leader, as a top-tier candidate, and she raised by far the most cash in the final quarter of 2018. Justus, who dropped out in June when former Secretary of State Jason Kander ran and re-entered in October after he left the contest, took in $213,000 during her first months back in the race. That was nearly quadruple the $58,000 that attorney Steve Miller raised. However, Miller did hold a small $252,000 to $250,000 cash-on-hand edge over Justis at the end of 2018.
City Councilor Quinton Lucas only raised $36,000, but he had about $230,000 in the bank. (The Star's article doesn't list his cash-on-hand, but we can extrapolate it based on the $213,000 he had at the end of October and the $17,000 he netted in the final months of 2018.) Fellow Councilor Scott Taylor took in just $10,000 for the quarter, but thanks to an early head-start, he had $177,000 in the bank.
