The Anne Coulter Government shutdown is in day 33, two competing votes will be held in the Senate today as an attempt to end the shutdown, one is the WH proposal of giving DACA 3 more years in exchange for the wall the other vote will be the House proposal to keep the government open at existing funding until February 8th, it’s likely that neither one will pass. The Democrats are holding to the line that there will be no negotiations until the government reopens. Their message is: “Open the government, pay the workers, quit holding them as hostages, put them back to work and we will sit-down at the bargaining table and negotiate border security in good faith.” This is how the government shutdown is going to end, whether or not they will be able to negotiate a bipartisan immigration deal after the government opens is problematic.
A couple weeks ago Trump walked out of a meeting with the Democratic leadership after asking Nancy if he ended the standoff would she give him his wall, she said “No.” and he walked. Eventually he will find himself in the same conversation but he will accept and say OK, I’ll open the government, yes, I’ll sign the CR to fund the government for awhile while we negotiate on the wall. It’s basically the same deal that existed before Christmas that he agreed to and then reneged after Anne Coulter intimidated him into pursuing this awful strategy. He leaped before he looked and now he finds himself stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Ranking Democratic house majority leader Steny Hoyer is playing the good cop role, saying he doesn’t have a problem with Trump giving the SOTU in the House, saying the wall is on the negotiating table. Republican Senate leader McConnell reversed himself and agreed to the two votes as an attempt to show that neither side has the votes to pass their preferred agenda thereby implying that the solution is a compromise that exists somewhere in between.
What are the alternatives?
1) Trump could hold out for a very long time as threatened. It doesn’t take much imagination to realize that this is not a viable option for Trump unless he is interested in destroying his presidency and the republican party. He is lost the publicity battle and every poll shows it.
2) A deal could be struck that allows the government to reopen, it would include border security and immigration reform. The Democrats are holding firm on opening the government first, they would have to reverse themselves and there is no incentive for them to cave now. A deal of this sort might be very hard to pull off even with experienced negotiators like McConnell and Pelosi sincerely putting the effort in. Any deal would require 60 senate votes that includes at least 7 Democratic senators. And it also has to be acceptable to a majority vote in the House that takes place with Nancy’s approval. It also has to be acceptable to the Republicans in the Senate and have Mitch McConnell blessing. It will be a hard deal to make, one that has been elusive for 15 years or more, it would be threading the needle with a small hole and a fine thread.
Anne Coulter has already pooh poohed Trump’s recent offer claiming he is giving up too much and getting too little, she will be dissatisfied with any bipartisan deal. Trump has to face the fact that the right wing echo chamber will roast him if he opens the government without a guarantee for the wall, that’s the the devil on one side. Or he could choose the deep blue sea and stand firm, not give an inch and hold out until the other side caves.