There has been a lot of comments and a few diaries about why the Civiqs data at the top of the page as been running contrary to all the other polling data. Civiqs has usually had an R lean and it usually is pretty close to the 538 aggregate of RV/LV polls, but seeing Trump’s ratings actually rise during the shutdown was peculiar to say the least.
I figured it was most likely normal fluctuations that was causing the deviation and generally advised people to wait about a week and see if Civiqs didn’t revert back to the mean. Sure enough in the last few days Trump’s favorables and approvals have both gone from -9 to -11, significant movement for Civiqs which usually moves at a glacial pace.
The most stunning thing to me was seeing Civiqs actually more favorable to Trump than Rasmussen, not just for a spot day or two but the entirety of a week! That deviation is now over, as Rasmussen now has Trump’s approval at -9.
Another few days and realignment will likely be complete. Then again, maybe not!