It seems so intuitive. There are Democrats on the left, Republicans on the right, and centrists and independents in the middle. A Democratic candidate can get away with having progressive policies like universal healthcare and higher minimum wages during the primary when it’s just their base voting, but when it comes to the general election they need to move to the center to pick up those voters in the middle.
It’s intuitive. It’s common sense. But it’s wrong.
As a believer in science I don’t think we should believe things based on what feels right, but instead based on what the evidence shows. If we have a theory that seems like it makes sense but doesn’t accurately predict future events then we must reject it. And the evidence clearly shows this theory is wrong.
The 2016 election featured a moderate Democrat against a right wing extremist Republican. This model would predict that the Democratic candidate would win by a large margin on the back of overwhelming moderate support.
But this isn’t what happened.
Sure, Clinton won the popular vote. But her popular vote margin, and her margin among self described moderates, was smaller than Obama’s in 2012 even though Obama was running against a moderate Republican.
We have no option but to reject the “appeal to centrists in the general” model. But where did we go wrong? What assumption are we making to come up with our intuitive answer that’s not right? Clearly our view of how moderates think and make voting decisions is off, so what’s really going on?
When you look at polls on issues you find a surprising, but consistent, result. On virtually every issue the American public supports the Democratic position, often overwhelmingly. Take healthcare, one of the biggest and most contentious issues today.
Given the way politicians act (and by extension the way people vote) it’s natural to assume something like Obamacare would get the most support, while more extreme options on either end like repealing it or replacing it with a single-payer system would only get support from their respective political extremes.
But yet again our intuition fails us. According to a recent poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 53% favor a single-payer healthcare system, while 64% of REPUBLICANS favor a public option. Other polls show the same thing, strong support for single-payer, overwhelming support for a public option. And it’s the same story on almost any issue you can think of.
So what do Democrats have to fear when it comes to nominating somebody with strong progressive positions? 2016 showed that centrists have no issue voting for candidates who are more extreme, and polls show that the even centrists agree with with progressives on the issues.
There is no reason to believe a Joe Biden is any more electable than an Elizabeth Warren. In fact the evidence would suggest the reverse, as Joe Biden is more Conservative than moderates and would only succeed in lowering enthusiasm for Democratic voters.