The rule is that outside spamming of the poll is allowed. So technically, Andrew Yang won. They are so good at spamming—gotta concede that. As we found out last straw poll, pretty much all of Yang’s support was external. Even during the best Bernie Sanders spamming days, there was (and is) strong local support for his candidacy. There is none for Yang. So the rules are the rules: Yang won. But I’m more interested in the dynamics of the real race, and that one doesn’t include Yang.
First the official results:
|
10/16 |
10/1 |
9/17 |
8/27 |
8/14 |
8/2 |
7/17 |
7/2 |
6/11 |
5/29 |
5/14 |
5/1 |
4/15 |
4/2 |
3/18 |
2/18 |
2/5 |
1/22 |
1/8 |
WARREN |
28 |
41 |
43 |
39 |
34 |
33 |
35 |
29 |
34 |
25 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
17 |
18 |
22 |
SANDERS |
12 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
23 |
25 |
20 |
25 |
25 |
34 |
26 |
34 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
44 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
YANG |
33 |
14 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
BIDEN |
7 |
10 |
9 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
7 |
12 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
5 |
8 |
- |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
BUTTIGIEG |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
21 |
18 |
6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
HARRIS |
3 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
14 |
19 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
27 |
27 |
14 |
OTHER |
2 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
UNSURE |
10 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
** |
** |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
(VOTES) |
71.6K |
60K |
54K |
58.5K |
54K |
59.3K |
57.2K |
63.2K |
57.5K |
39.8K |
60K |
53.1K |
35.5K |
40.2K |
52.5K |
56K |
42.2K |
28K |
35.5K |
Two weeks ago, filtering out outside spamming efforts, Yang was well under 1% of the vote. I’ll assign him 1% and proceed from there. So here are the results we’re going to actually talk about:
|
10/16 |
WARREN |
43 |
SANDERS |
18 |
Buttigieg |
11 |
Biden |
11 |
HARRIS |
5 |
Klobuchar |
5
|
Other |
7 |
(VOTES) |
49K |
Once you filter out the Yang noise, Elizabeth Warren is around her usual high 30s, low 40s. Bernie Sanders is right there in the mid-teens. Biden is back around 10. Harris is in her same recent mid-single digits.
The two candidates who seem to have gotten a boost, perhaps from yesterday’s debate, are Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. (All other named candidates were hovering around 1%, except for Julián Castro, who was down to 0.6%. Even Tom freakin’ Steyer was at 1%.)
Klobuchar’s gain is legit. Two weeks ago she got 860 votes. Yesterday she got 2,234. And there’s no “Klobugang” driving votes to the site. She apparently impressed last night, enough so to nearly triple her level of support.
Same with Buttigieg. Two weeks ago he had 4,467 votes; yesterday he was at 5,278.
In raw votes, Warren is actually down: from 28,458 to 20,132. The total adjusted vote count was lower, so her percentage was up, but with other candidates making incremental gains, this is the first time in a while that Warren’s raw numbers have faltered.
Bernie also went backward a bit, from 10,719 to 8,643.
Combined, however, they remain in the mid-50% of all votes, a steady constant all cycle.
It’ll be interesting to track whether we’re seeing movement that will be reflected in real life—whether Klobuchar and Buttigieg will make moves in national polling. And whether Warren has actually hit her first stall in … forever.
Stay tuned!