Mason-Dixon, polling on behalf of several Mississippi media outlets, is out with a rare survey of the Nov. 5 race for governor, and they give Republican Tate Reeves a 46-43 edge over Democrat Jim Hood. The firm’s last poll was taken all the way back in February, and it gave Hood a 46-44 edge.
Around the same time that this survey came out, Hood’s team released their own poll from Hickman Analytics. This one showed Hood with a 46-42 lead over Reeves, which is a small increase from the Democrat’s 45-42 edge last month.
While plenty of Republicans have made it clear how little they like Reeves (his intra-party detractors have liberally used the word arrogant to describe him), Mason-Dixon finds that statewide voters view him a bit better than they view Hood. The poll gives Reeves a 41-26 favorable rating, while Hood has a 39-29 score. While that’s not a huge gap, it’s going to be very tough for Hood to prevail in a state as red as Mississippi if Reeves is seen as an acceptable choice by most voters. Hood’s polling memo said that his “personal popularity rating remains higher than Reeves,” but they did disclose either of their scores.
Unfortunately, even in Hickman is right and Hood is ahead, that may not be enough to win him the governorship next month. Mississippi's 1890 state constitution contains a Jim Crow-era provision that requires gubernatorial candidates to win both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House; if someone fails to hit both of these benchmarks, the state House picks the new governor from the top two finishers.
As we have previously shown, Mississippi's current system discriminates against black voters and consequently Democrats, and not just because Republicans gerrymandered the legislature. If the GOP-led House gets to choose the new governor there's little question that they'd pick Team Red's nominee no matter which candidate actually won the most votes. Several black voters are currently suing to overturn this law and the case went before a federal judge earlier this month, but a ruling has not yet been issued.
Meanwhile, Hood is out with another ad here focused on healthcare. The narrator declares that Reeves “did nothing while our rural hospitals closed, and he “sided with big drug companies, letting healthcare costs increase.” The spot goes on say that Hood and leading Mississippi Republicans share the same bipartisan healthcare plan.
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