Today’s party line vote by the House Republicans proves once and for all that the Republican Party is afraid of Trump and his supporters. So, its time for everyone to recognise the truth: Trump will never be convicted by the Senate. It is never going to happen.
Senate Republicans will never vote to convict Trump because doing so would destroy the Republican Party. Convicting Trump would have three immediate blowbacks for Republicans:
(1) Hardcore Trump supporters would immediately turn on every Republican who voted to convict, costing Republicans those seats and the Senate;
(2) Trump himself will not go quietly into the night. Instead, he will likely, upon exiting office, continue to seek the spotlight and will be a 24/7 presence on Twitter and other media torching every Republican who voted against him as a “traitor” and much worse; and
(3) A weakened Republican Party may face the challenge of a new far right political party emerging, perhaps led by Trump himself, composed of the many folks who will feel “betrayed” that the Republican Party could not maintain solidarity.
Countervailing these risks, there is no upside for the Republicans to convict Trump. Pence and other potential standard barriers are unlikely to win the Presidency with suppressed Republican turn-out.
The Republican Senators are moral cowards who cling to their jobs and privileges. They are well experienced in selling whatever “principles” they have down the river in favor of maintaining their jobs. Consequently, NO ONE SHOULD BE SURPRISED BY A NEAR PARTY LINE VOTE BY THE REPUBLICAN SENATE NOT TO CONVICT!
Therefore, if impeachment is going to be anything other than a historical oddity immediately swatted down by the GOP-controlled Senate, Democrats need to carefully and methodically make their case through serious fact-finding … to the American public. This is not a proceeding which should last days, or even weeks, but must roll on for MONTHS.
After all, this is the only chance that the Democrats will have to control the media’s attention and make a concerted and lengthy attack on Trump.
Impeachment must be a months long infomercial for America. An endless line of witnesses exposing Trump’s lies and misdeeds as the country heads into the primary season.
Anything short of that squanders this opportunity.
Once impeachment goes to the Senate, it will either die a quick death or become a pro-Trump show trial.
So now is the time that we must all accept and support a VERY slow walk through the impeachment process.