We do not have until 2050 to reduce CO2 emissions to zero. We do not have until 2030 to reduce CO2 emissions by 50%. That is, if we could wave a magic wand in 2050 and poof! all emissions are zeroed, we’d be screwed. That is because all the emissions between now and then would have already been put into the system and we are so close that that alone is enough to push us over the tipping points.
Worse, climate researcher Kevin Anderson and his colleague Alice Bows have pointed out that these targets are arbitrary. They were chosen for political expediency in getting the IPCC reports approved. The real situation is more dire than that, because of all the cumulative effects and their feedback loops, not all of which are completely understood. They warn that focusing too much on these far off targets will distract us from the need to start cutting, massively, now.
And as the IPCC report on what a 1.5C increase means says:
Avoiding overshoot and reliance on future large-scale deployment of CO2 removal can only be achieved if global CO2 emissions start to decline well before 2030.
Greta Thunberg travelled across the ocean, at the invitation of the UN Secretary General, to speak last month at the UN Climate Conference in New York. Just last week Thunberg called it “a complete failure” because nothing substantive was done. But then, she did not expect anything, as she said in her fiery speech on the opening day:
“There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures today. Because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.”
- Greta Thunberg, speaking before the UN General Assembly, September 23, 2019
btw, This week Greta has been at Pine Ridge visiting the Lakota people. My fingers are crossed for Friday, October 11, when the Nobel Peace Prize for 2019 is announced. There are 301 candidates!
EVERYBODY WILL BE AFFECTED
Eliminating emissions is an across the board, all sectors problem. Just switching to EVs is not enough. Revolutions are needed in how we think about agriculture, industry, building trades, and architecture, as well as transport.
The last time most of the world went through a change in direction this big was World War II. Factories went from making consumer goods to armaments in just a few months. But back then everybody could see the problem — bombs were falling, things were exploding. Well, all we had to do was put up with a few years of hardship and then to back to our normal lives, problem solved with nasty Hitler out of the way.
Not this time. The problem is in us. The enemy is our very way of life, and we have to change it permanently.
The IPCC reports generally list obstacles to making necessary changes, and one that always comes up is public ignorance.
Public acceptability can enable or inhibit the implementation of policies and measures to limit global warming to 1.5°C and to adapt to the consequences. Public acceptability depends on the individual’s evaluation of expected policy consequences, the perceived fairness of the distribution of these consequences, and perceived fairness of decision procedures.
- The IPCC report on a 1.5 degree temperature rise, Summary, section D.5.6.
Not business as usual
The expansionist, extractive mind-set that has so long governed our relationship to nature is what the climate crisis calls into question so fundamentally.
- Naomi Klein in her book “On Fire”
Once you have done your homework, you realize that we need new politics. We need a new economics, where evrything is based on our rapidly declining and extremely limited Carbon budget. But that is not enough. We need a whole new way of thinking … We must stop competing with each other. We need to start cooperating and sharing the remaining resources of this planet in a fair way.
- Greta Thunberg
Uh oh, we have to do homework? No wonder things are looking grim.
Any Presidential candidate who talks about “a transition away from fossil fuels” is useless. We are out of time.