Last week, Democrat John Bel Edwards won re-election to a second term as Louisiana’s governor while at the same time, Republicans narrowly failed to win a supermajority in the state House, which would have allowed them to override Edwards’ vetoes.
That has big implications for Louisiana politics and most importantly redistricting. If Democrats in the legislature can stick together and win the support of two independents who lean to the left on some key issues, they could gain a seat at the table when congressional and legislative districts are redrawn after the 2020 census. Below, we’ll delve into precisely why that matters so much.
As shown on the map at the top of this post (see here for a larger version), Republicans drew Louisiana's congressional map after the 2010 census to lock in an unbreakable partisan advantage for themselves across the state. They did so by crafting a snake-like corridor connecting New Orleans and Baton Rouge—two cities that are 80 miles apart—to pack as many black voters as possible into a single seat, the lone district shaded in blue above.
Not only did this make the 2nd District overwhelmingly Democratic, it also ensured the surrounding districts would be heavily white and, therefore, Republican-leaning. Democrats are currently suing over this map, arguing that it violates federal law by illegally discriminating against black voters.
But while that suit makes its way through the courts, Louisiana has already conducted four elections using this gerrymandered map—and it’s been very effective. Every time this decade, Democrats have won only one seat to Republicans' five, even in the blue wave of 2018.
Republicans in the legislature did not just come up with tortured boundaries for the state’s congressional map, though. They also gerrymandered the lines for their own districts, allowing them to win ever-larger majorities in the state House and Senate. As the 2019 elections showed, these maps threaten to create a vicious cycle whereby Republicans could override vetoes of future gerrymanders precisely because their existing gerrymanders give them outsize power in the legislature.
But that cycle could be broken in the coming decade if Edwards' likely veto of any new gerrymanders can be sustained. If Republicans fail to override such vetoes and no new maps are passed, a court would step in to draw nonpartisan districts instead. That could lead to Democrats gaining a seat in Congress and possibly more at the legislative level. It could also result in black voters gaining more clout in additional districts.
All of that would mean much fairer maps for Louisiana. After all, should a state that is roughly one-third black give only one-sixth of its congressional seats to candidates supported by black voters? Below, we'll explore what a court-drawn congressional map might look like, and how it would impact state politics.
If Democrats are able to sustain Edwards' veto, or if the federal lawsuit mentioned above succeeds, Louisiana could have a second congressional district where Democrats supported by black voters would have a good shot at winning. The first hypothetical map shown below contains two seats (Districts 2 and 6) where a majority of the adult population is African American.
In order to qualify for protection under the Voting Rights Act, the Supreme Court has held, these two districts must have a relatively compact black population where voting is racially polarized, meaning white voters would otherwise vote as a bloc to defeat the candidates supported by black voters if whites were the majority. If these initial conditions can be met along with some others, then the federal court hearing a challenge to the existing lines would be required to draw something akin to these districts.
Under this map, the 2nd District would remain heavily Democratic while the 6th District would change dramatically: Under the current lines, it backed Donald Trump by 65-31, but in this hypothetical configuration, it would have supported Hillary Clinton by 54-44. Such a district would almost certainly flip from red to blue, and it would likely also elect a candidate preferred by black voters, which is to say, a black Democrat.
There’s also some flexibility here. To win VRA protection, a district doesn’t actually have to be majority black, as long as black voters can still elect their preferred candidates. This can happen because of “crossover” voting—that is, if there’s a sufficient number of white voters who are willing to vote for the candidates supported by black voters.
The Supreme Court has therefore ruled that it only has to be theoretically possible to draw two majority-black districts. In practice, it’s permissible to draw districts where black voters lack a majority, and it’s often preferable to do so. That’s because it makes it easier to draw districts that are more compact and better preserve communities of interest.
That’s the approach taken by this second hypothetical map.
Although the 2nd and 6th Districts are now plurality white, they still favor Democrats, since the 2nd backed Clinton by 61-35 and the 6th favored her by 55-42. In addition, Democratic Senate candidates carried both districts by double digits even while they lost statewide in the 2010 and 2014 Republican midterm wave elections. You’ll also notice that the 2nd District would be much more compact, centered entirely around New Orleans. The 6th would also become more compact, with a focal point based in Baton Rouge.
However, the courts might not order that a second VRA-protected district be created. Even so, Louisiana’s next map, which the state will be required to use following the 2020 census, could still be much fairer than the present one. The hypothetical map below envisions what such lines could look like:
With this map in place, the 6th would become a compact district that includes Baton Rouge and its largely white suburbs. This version of the 6th favored Trump by 53-43, meaning it isn’t a true swing district, but that's far more competitive than the existing district, which, as we noted above, voted 65-31 for Trump. Under the right circumstances, Democrats would have a chance to pull off an upset in the 6th under this map.
In fact, Edwards carried the 6th on this map by a 59-41 margin in last week's runoff, a considerably wider spread than his 51-49 statewide win. Edwards is an unusually strong Democratic candidate whose success is atypical, but even in the race for secretary of state, Democrat Gwen Collins-Greenup lost the 6th only 53-47 despite getting drubbed 59-41 statewide in an election that wasn't heavily contested.
Thanks to Baton Rouge, its suburbs, and the parishes along the Mississippi River, the district's black population and college-educated white population make up an estimated 61% of adult citizens. That’s higher than the 55% national average, meaning a district like this could continue to trend bluer as college-educated suburbanites realign toward Democrats.
There’s one important caveat, though: All three of the above maps were drawn using population figures from the 2010 census. If the court doesn’t strikes down the GOP's current gerrymander and orders it to be redrawn for use next year, the coming round of redistricting will use population data from the 2020 census. The most recent census estimates indicate that many of the Mississippi River parishes with large rural black communities have lost population since 2010 while the heavily white suburbs of major cities and the predominantly black city of New Orleans have grown.
These changes will shift representation around the state, and it's hard to project what impact that would have on theses maps. It could become easier or harder to draw the two majority-black districts needed for VRA protection, for instance, and the 6th District under the final map above could shift into more Republican territory or more Democratic areas.
Still, if Democrats can sustain Edwards' veto, Louisiana is all but guaranteed to have a fairer map than the extreme gerrymander Republicans drew this decade. That's important not just for Congress but also for the state legislature’s maps, since nonpartisan districts could prevent Republicans from winning supermajorities in future elections.
However, Democratic legislators could always be tempted to break ranks and sign off on a Republican gerrymander simply because their own seats are drawn in a favorable manner. It’s up to Democratic leaders and progressive activists to stay vigilant and exert pressure to make sure that doesn’t happen.