Remember when the conventional wisdom in Washington was that if Democrats impeached Donald Trump it would portend electoral disaster for them in 2020? But then Democrats announced the impeachment inquiry and within about 24 - 48 hours, the momentum shifted, polls flipped, and pundits started pondering what a pickle Senate Republicans might be in.
Conventional wisdom in Washington is always stubbornly and unquestionably true among the chattering class until, well, it isn't anymore. In fact, the sway of conventional wisdom in the Beltway almost always turns out to be overvalued given how often it suddenly crumbles into dust. And the current conventional wisdom that Republican voters will never abandon Trump should be viewed in that light, especially when one starts digging deeper into the data we are getting from an abundance of polls.
This is not to suggest that Trump's support will suddenly evaporate entirely. But when people ask, 'When will GOP senators abandon Trump?' the most common response is generally, not yet because Trump’s support among Republican voters is still in the mid- to high-80s. That's why Friday’s Washington Post/ABC News poll putting Trump's support among Republicans at just 74% got so much attention. The numbers represented a steady drop in Trump's approval rating among GOP Americans over the last several months of the poll:
- July: 87% approval
- September: 82% approval
- Now: 74% approval
Still, looking at the aggregate of other recent polls, the Post/ABC GOP approval numbers look to be an outlier:
- Ipsos 10/28-29: 84%
- Post/ABC 10/27-30: 74%
- Morning Consult 10/29-30: 84%
- YouGov 10/29-31: 89%
- YouGov 10/30-31: 88%
However, as I noted in writing up the Post/ABC poll on Friday, if one widens out the lens from the narrow focus on Trump's approval rating alone, the bigger picture looks a lot less rock solid for Trump. In fact, in questions related to Trump's conduct as president and regarding Ukraine, he was generally garnering the support of roughly two-thirds of Republicans—some 20 points below that bedrock 80-plus margin everyone is so fond of citing.
Here's several examples from the poll.
- Regarding Ukraine, Trump did nothing wrong: 67% of Republicans agree, 24% say he did do something wrong
- Trump has acted in a "fitting and proper" way since taking office (i.e. presidential): 65% of Republicans agree, 32% say his conduct has been unpresidential
- Do you approve/disapprove of how Trump has handled impeachment: 63% of Republicans approve, 27% disapprove
But it wasn't just the Post/ABC poll this week that flashed some warning signals Trump's way. The same was true of the AP-NORC poll. It similarly found that just 64% of Republicans say Trump did nothing wrong in his interactions with Ukraine, while 28% say he was unethical and another 8% consider his actions illegal—meaning more than a third of Republicans think Trump did something wrong.
Just 65% of Republicans say Trump makes them feel "proud," while 33% said he does not. But even worse for Trump, only 58% of Republicans say Trump makes them feel "excited," while 41% are not excited about him. That is some very weak enthusiasm and suggests that even the GOP base is suffering from Trump fatigue. They clearly are not alone, with 77% of independents expressing their lack of excitement for Trump (not to mention 92% of Democrats).
Bill Cathey, a 57-year-old independent from Charlotte, North Carolina, put it this way: “It wears you down, it wears you out ... and kind of dampens your spirit throughout the day.”
That's the effect Trump is having on many, many Americans, including 4 in 10 voters in his own party, heading into a stretch of impeachment months in which Trump will absolutely intrude in every way possible on what is usually a festive time of year for much of the country.
Sure, Trump still has high approvals among GOP voters and a cult-like following among about two-thirds of them. But a lot dissatisfaction lurks among about a third of his supporters and, frankly, he can't afford any erosion whatsoever among that conservative cohort because he's so toxic among the rest of the electorate.