New Yorkers support impeachment and removal 52-44 compared to 55-38 a month ago, with support dropping among independents and voters under 35 in particular. Trump’s approval is up slightly from 30-67 last month to 32-65 now, but his numbers with Republicans are a weak 66-32. Trump is at 36-62 Upstate and 37-58 in the NYC suburbs, which should help us in some congressional flip targets like NY-01 Zeldin, 02 open, and 24 Katko and seats where we are playing defense like 19 Delgado, and 22 Brindisi.
As for the primary, Biden is at 24% and no one else passes the crucial 15% threshold statewide. Warren is at 14, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 5, Harris 3, Booker, Yang, and Bloomberg at 2, and 1 or less for everyone else with 29% undecided. Sanders does best in NYC, Warren does best in the NYC suburbs, but Biden leads in both regions and has a wide lead Upstate.
In a theme that plays out in polling across the country, Biden’s mid-20s to low 30s lead with a wide, fractured field behind him puts him in a very strong position to gather a disproportionate number of delegates. With his rivals Warren and Sanders hovering at the 15% cutoff, they are in danger of missing out on delegates awarded at the statewide level completely and a lot of the larger pool of delegates awarded at the congressional district level, while Biden stands to win delegates everywhere.