Atossa Araxia Abrahamian at The Nation writes—How to Not Waste the Next Economic Crisis. A downturn will (eventually) come—and with it, a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform the US economy:
Since the fall of 2008, Americans have watched the financial markets with the hypervigilant anxiety of a rescue pet: spoiled by (relative) prosperity and half expecting to be cast back out at a moment’s notice. This feeling of nervous anticipation peaked over the summer, when a key economic indicator known as the yield curve fell out of whack and investors briefly stood to make more money lending to the government in the short term rather than the long term.
Historically, an inverted yield curve has meant a recession is coming—a bad outcome for almost everyone involved, especially the poor. Yet this curve brought with it a sort of dark vindication. With slowing global growth and a trade war with China, things couldn’t possibly be as good as they seemed, could they? For the moment, however, the markets seem to have bounced back. In early November the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 indexes closed at record highs; at last count, US unemployment hit a 50-year low of 3.5 percent; and homeownership was on the rise, at almost 65 percent. At the same time, Bloomberg News put the risk of a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth) in the next 12 months at 27 percent, while other experts expect the coming slump to be less pronounced—more of a correction than a cataclysm.
It’s impossible to tell who’s right. All we know is that a downturn is a “when,” not “if,” scenario. Whoever is in power when that day finally comes will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to seize the moment and transform the US economy. A second Trump term would derail any efforts toward a green, equitable, and fair 21st century. Corporate power will continue to swell; more plant and animal species will die off; people will suffer hotter summers, colder winters, longer hours, worse benefits, less pay; and minorities will feel their pain compounded by the weight of marginalization. But 2020 is far from a done deal, and activists, lawmakers, politicians, and voters who want to live to see a better world (or, let’s face it, just live) should prepare a fleet of ambitious policies to deploy in a historic fight for fairness, justice, and equality.
The stakes could not be higher. There’s a narrative about the last crash that begins with the first subprime mortgage and continues through the bank bailout, the Occupy Wall Street protests, and the Tea Party’s rise, then culminates with strong Republican gains in the 2010 midterms, laying the ground for the election of Donald J. Trump. That brings us to where we are today, with a veneer of economic prosperity but few guarantees for working people in the future. [...]
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BLAST FROM THE PAST
At Daily Kos on this date in 2011—Super Congress failed because of Republican allegiance to Grover Norquist:
The stupid is on full display today as the punditry bemoans the death of the Super Congress, mournfully declaring that it was just that both sides were so entrenched in protecting entitlements versus tax increases. So let's just try to inject a little reality into this. First, the always helpful deficit parfait chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
That black line at the very bottom, the one that stays pretty damned stable, includes the contribution of things like Medicaid and Medicare entitlements. Not Social Security mind you, because Social Security still doesn't contribute to the deficit. That's a conveniently forgotten fact by everyone who insisted on plopping it down on the negotiating table, Democrat and Republican alike. So yes, the big drivers of the deficit continue to be the Bush tax cuts, the wars and the ongoing economic downturn. But mostly, it's those tax cuts.
On today’s Kagro in the Morning show: Mueller report gets a second look, now in the impeachment context. When Gop talks Ukraine, "investigation into 2016" is code for "Russia's a hoax, Hillary did it." Impeach Pompeo! And while you're at it, let’s rethink the infamous OLC memo.
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