It should not come as a surprise to anyone, at this point, that not one Republican Senator is likely to vote for conviction after Donald Trump is impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.
Despite incessant media chatter insisting that certain so-called “moderate” Republican Senators, such as Colorado’s Cory Gardner and Maine’s Susan Collins, or Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, may feel pressure from constituents to convict a criminally compromised president, the political equation would suggest that this is simply wishful thinking.
Both House and Senate Republicans know that Trump is guilty of the crimes he will be charged with when the House’s articles of impeachment are finalized. In fact, they knew this before the hearings even began. But, in an act of preemptive solidarity with Trump, every Republican in the House voted, in monolithic cadence, to oppose the Impeachment inquiry.
That means, with one or two exceptions (and corresponding announced retirements), House Republicans will also vote in lockstep against impeachment when the final vote is taken. There is no reason to expect any Republican in the Senate to act any differently, because their motivation is the same. Their reasoning comes down to a simple political calculus.
Any Republican even partially dependent on Trump’s rabid and virulent base for re-election can count on having that base turn against them if they vote to convict Donald Trump. The number of votes, for example, that Susan Collins is going to gain from “moderates” in Maine would not outweigh the number of votes she is likely to lose by infuriating Trump’s base. That’s true, no matter how “moderate” Maine is overall. Trump’s voting base is now a cult, and a vote to convict their leader is simply incomprehensible to them. Anyone who takes such an action will be shunned, if not subjected to actual violence. On Election Day those people will sit on their hands, and at this point, there are a lot more of them than there are “persuadable” moderates
And nothing the Democrats uncover—no crime, no association, no betrayal or act by Trump—will change that. Thus Republican Senators fear the revenge of Trump’s followers, both electorally and physically ... and frankly, their fear makes sense. Who wants to spend the rest of their lives being vilified online, having their family harassed and threatened, to the point where the remainder of one’s life is spent looking over one’s shoulder in fear of one of Trump’s lunatic followers? That’s the future that the cult promises any Republican who votes to convict Trump.
Does that place certain Republicans in a difficult, even untenable position? Yes. Will they vote to convict anyway? Not likely.
So Trump will be acquitted. But what has not been discussed much—and what we should start to think about now, rather than later—is how Trump will behave after this acquittal.
His historical pattern suggests that he will trumpet his acquittal and use it to justify committing further crimes, with a renewed and much higher degree of impunity. After all, there is literally nothing to stop him from doing so—no legal constraint whatsoever. The Supreme Court isn’t going to stop him, and absent a blatantly illegal war crime, the Armed Services aren’t going to stop him either.
The months between the time the Senate acquits Trump and the November 2020 election are going to be the most harrowing months in this country’s modern history, because this Republican-controlled Senate will have allowed a criminal president to run amok with no legal means of restraint to stop him. As just one example, this means that Trump (and his Republican enablers) will use every possibly corrupt means to secure foreign assistance for re-election, because they know there will effectively be no blowback or consequences for doing so. The lines of communication between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin (as well as any other dictator who can provide assistance) will be ringing off the hook, and often in plain sight. After he is acquitted, Trump will almost certainly request and receive the full assistance of Russia and of all their propaganda arsenal in his re-election bid, because he will know that no repercussions are likely to follow.
And because they know that a Republican Senate will never convict, Trump and Putin will be pouring plenty of money into those so-called states where Republican senators who voted to acquit are “endangered.” It’s a simple matter of survival for Trump. Practically speaking, It’s the only way he avoids the criminal proceedings against him that will ensue after he is out of office. And there is simply nothing Trump won’t do to avoid that end.
What can the Democratic-majority House due to forestall this scenario? Their options are limited, but as Charles Blow set forth in a New York Times column last month, one solution is to impeach Trump again—and again—if necessary.
When the Democratic leadership was finally forced to formally back an impeachment inquiry, they faced a choice: focus broadly on all of Donald Trump’s corruption and unfitness, which could drag on for a long time, or focus narrowly on the new revelations about Trump and Ukraine and do so quickly. They chose the latter.
I happen to agree with that strategy, if one assumes that you only have one shot at this. But, I also propose another scenario: Do both. Draw up articles of impeachment on the narrow case of Ukraine, but don’t close the impeachment inquiry. Keep it open and ready to draw up more articles as new corruption is uncovered. Impeach Trump repeatedly if necessary.
There is nothing in the Constitution that prevents a president from being impeached more than once.
The practical effect of this tactic would be continued hearings, continued testimony, continued witnesses, and a focus on Trump’s criminality—certainly until the November 2020 election, and probably until the day he leaves office. Will that stop him from committing more crimes? Probably not. But it might give him enough pause to consider the consequences.
And make no mistake, the effects of continued impeachment efforts would be severe and unpredictable. They might be so severe as to rip the country apart.
But Democrats really will have no choice. It’s either that or acquiesce to someone who is essentially going to consider himself a dictator, one totally unfettered by any legal constraints. It's either that or lay down supine while Trump, Putin and their Republican enablers team up, taking turns grinding their collective boots into the face of Democrats and any others who try to stand up for the rule of law.
For those who think such an approach might ensure a Trump re-election, Blow offers this:
Some people worry that a single impeachment may strengthen Trump’s hand in 2020. They will no doubt be apoplectic about the idea of doing it multiple times, deeper into the campaign season.
But I say, Trump — and his propaganda machine at Fox News — are going to spin every scenario to their best ability. Trump is not going down without a fight, even at the ballot box.
I believe that Democrats have to place their faith in something more fundamental: the power of the truth.
This outlook sounds alarmist, even hysterical. But it also seems like it’s exactly where the nation is headed, thanks to the treachery and cowardice of the Republican Senate.
