This week’s straw poll results:
|
11/6 |
10/16 |
10/1 |
9/17 |
8/27 |
8/14 |
8/2 |
7/17 |
7/2 |
6/11 |
5/29 |
5/14 |
5/1 |
4/15 |
4/2 |
3/18 |
2/18 |
2/5 |
1/22 |
1/8 |
WARREN |
36 |
33 |
41 |
43 |
39 |
34 |
33 |
35 |
29 |
34 |
25 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
17 |
18 |
22 |
SANDERS |
17 |
18 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
23 |
25 |
20 |
25 |
25 |
34 |
26 |
34 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
44 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
BIDEN |
15 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
7 |
12 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
5 |
8 |
- |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
BUTTIGIEG |
13 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
21 |
18 |
6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
HARRIS |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
14 |
19 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
27 |
27 |
14 |
OTHER |
11 |
13 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
UNSURE |
3 |
9 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
** |
** |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
(VOTES) |
44K |
49K |
60K |
54K |
58.5K |
54K |
59.3K |
57.2K |
63.2K |
57.5K |
39.8K |
60K |
53.1K |
35.5K |
40.2K |
52.5K |
56K |
42.2K |
28K |
35.5K |
The Elizabeth Warren-Bernie Sanders wing of the party continues to garner a combined 50-60% of the vote, as it has virtually the entire cycle. It shows how that wing of the party is a solid majority, but not a growing one—not online, at least. It may not matter in the primary, if the Joe Biden-Pete Buttigieg wing remains fragmented. But if the status-quo candidates end up consolidating (either around Biden or Buttigieg), then there may have to be some consolidation on the left as well. No need for that yet, however.
Buttigieg’s recent gains aren’t obvious in national polling, but they have showed up in one place: Iowa, where he seems on track to notch a respectable showing. Obviously, there’s still a fair amount of time (three months or so) and so much can and will happen. But he’s shown surprising resilience despite his lack of serious qualifications for the job.
Speaking of resilience, Joe Biden continues to stick around. I keep predicting his inevitable demise, and he keeps proving my fallibility (so far).
Kamala Harris’ 5% here mirrors the 5% she’s garnering in national polling. She’s found a floor, but as the campaign contracts nationally and masses in lily-white, rural Iowa for what looks like a final stand, it’s tough to see how she revives her fortunes.
Now to address the elephant in the room:
The Daily Kos straw poll has always functioned as a measure of online netroots intensity. Traditionally, Bernie Sanders supporters were very good at driving support to the poll, and they were rewarded with consistent victories. In the 2016 cycle, it meant that Sanders would garner 60%+ of the vote regularly, even though Hillary Clinton was winning the overall world with roughly that same percentage. But there was no doubt that in the online world, it was Bernie that garnered more passion and energy. That’s why such spamming efforts never bothered me. Ultimately, they were reflective of what we would see online, and the people voting were progressives.
These Andrew Yang supporters have subverted that in every wrong way. Their ability to spam polls is impressive and unparalleled. But they use fake email addresses to vote. They’re not progressives, committed to building a liberal America. Is that an overly broad characterization? Probably. But we also know that the vast majority are not interested in joining the site’s mission to elect more and better Democrats while fighting for progressive policy at the national and local levels. They’re not even pretending to try. And you know what? Of the thousands of people who signed up to vote since we started the straw poll, it wasn’t until the Yang people came on the scene that fake email addresses became a problem. No one else was that dismissive and showed that much disrespect to our mission.
So it’s no surprise that once we filter out bunk emails, it’s the Yang votes that disappear.