A terawatt-hour here, a terawatt-hour there, and soon you're talking about real power. Bloomberg NEF predicts that 2 TwH of batteries will be made in 2024. That means not just affordable electric cars, but electric everything at a profit for the makers and the buyers and the buyers' customers.
Battery prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF).
Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019
BNEF’s 2019 Battery Price Survey, published today [Dec. 3] at the BNEF Summit in Shanghai, predicts that as cumulative demand passes 2TWh in 2024, prices will fall below $100/kWh.
BNEF’s analysis finds that as batteries become cheaper, more sectors are electrifying. For example, the electrification of commercial vehicles, like delivery vans, is becoming increasingly attractive. This will lead to further differentiation in cell specifications, with commercial and high-end passenger vehicle applications likely to opt for metrics like cycle life over continued price declines. However, for mass market passenger EVs, low battery prices will remain the most critical goal.
Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage at BNEF, said: “Factory costs are falling thanks to improvements in manufacturing equipment and increased energy density at the cathode and cell level. The expansion of existing facilities also offers companies a lower-cost route to expand capacity.”
Lots more to come on improved manufacturing technology, which is well under way, and new battery technologies, where we do not yet know which will win out.
As we get closer to the second half of the 2020s energy density at the cell and pack level will play a growing role, as it allows for more efficient use of materials and manufacturing capacity. New technologies like silicon or lithium anodes, solid state cells and new cathode materials will be key to helping cost reductions play out.
Note to copyright nerds: This is a press release. We're supposed to quote lots of it.