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There can no longer be any doubt that impeachment will lead to a removal trial on the Senate floor. The damning evidence is already well known, enough for a vote of removal by anyone with a conscience and respect for the Constitution.
Sadly, those attributes don’t apply to today’s GOP, particularly under the rule of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Clearly they’ve already put party above country. But will they be willing to put party over their careers, not only in their current tenure in Congress but also in risking lucrative contracts as future lobbyists? Will they risk being on the wrong side of history when future revelations cement a broad consensus that the Trump era proved to be the greatest threat to democracy ever?
Of the 53 Republican Senators currently in Congress, 23 are up for reelection this cycle. That means 30 won’t have to face primaries or general elections in 2020. And, assuming all Democrats and Bernie Sanders would vote for removal of Trump, that means a total of 20 Republican votes are needed to surpass the two-thirds threshold needed to end the Trump presidency.
So far, Republicans have been able to maintain lockstep support for the president, at least in the full House vote to formally confirm impeachment proceedings and today’s Judiciary Committee impeachment vote. During the impeachment process they have not disputed the facts, only spewed feeble yet vocal claims of flawed process, and even worse, the claim that Trump’s actions haven’t risen to the threshold of high crimes and misdemeanors.
But this blather is from Republicans in the relevant committees. Only when the full House impeachment vote is taken will we see if the lockstep support is still there. For some, abstention may be the best course. Why risk your career if your district is heavily for impeachment? And why vote not to impeach when that vote has no weight, assuming all Democrats will vote to impeach?
While some Republicans have been outspoken in their support of Trump, others have been able to remain quiet, in essence hedging their bets. On the Senate side, the gambit is even greater.
With the steady flow of damning information, and the more public phase of impeachment confirming suspicions, surely there is a tipping point where the GOP knows that the party’s future is at stake. Going down with the ship for such a flawed leader will cost them power at the national, and in places like Texas, Ohio, and Florida, even at the state level. Virginia has proven that the shift has already begun.
And once powerless, the cash cows of billionaire and corporate campaign support for the GOP will vanish. With no accomplishments to help the middle class, feckless rhetoric won’t be enough to fund reelection. Most of America will know that proud Republican supporters have been played the fool.
This political purgatory is staring GOP leadership in the face. Here are the only likely outcomes after the impeachment vote happens in the House:
- Trump is acquitted in the Senate with a majority vote
- Trump is acquitted with the majority voting to impeach, but not reaching the two-thirds threshold for removal
- Trump is acquitted, but another wave of impeachment articles go before the House for a second impeachment vote
- Trump is removed, but campaigns for a second term anyway
- Trump is removed, with blanket pardons from Pence
- Trump is removed, with some pardons by Pence but will face some indictments
- Trump is removed with no pardons, and dozens of convictions await
- Trump resigns before the the Senate trial phase
The best case scenario for Republicans is the first outcome. Yet while around 90% of registered Republicans support Trump presently, they only represent about a quarter of registered voters. Independents will be required to deliver a Trump reelection. And right-leaning Independents can flip quickly, particularly since Trump’s mouth and Twitter feed lead the stampede towards his political demise. And racism, xenophobia, and misogyny alone aren’t compelling reasons alone to stay on the Trump train.
When will the GOP choose to cut bait if the damage to the party is going to be too great? With new corroborated evidence every week, the national demand for impeachment and removal may climb from its current 53% to 70% by Christmas. There are still the Mueller report supporting documents and Trump’s taxes ready to drop, with the Trump administration’s court appeals to keep them private already turned down. And if the Supreme Court chooses not to hear those cases, groundless as they are, the lower court rulings would stand. When those documents are revealed at either the state or federal level, any McConnell strategy of holding on to the bitter end would be harpooned.
Early next year Senate GOP incumbents will face this conundrum: if they vote to acquit, they’ll lose in the general with disgruntled Republicans saying buh-bye to every Trump enabler. If they vote to remove, they’ll feel significant short-term wrath from Trump, but those attacks will lose their teeth if he’s removed and disgraced. That vote for removal will help them in the primaries because the Trump billionaire backers won’t be in play anymore to make good on Trump’s challenger threat. While some of the base won’t vote at all in the general as victims of this betrayal, the very low-information voters may let tainted incumbents keep their seats out of the reflex to vote (R).
But a key factor in how Senate Republicans might vote on removal may be determined by when that vote happens. And Senate Majority Leader McConnell might try and play this dynamic to his advantage.
If the best endgame for the party is for Trump to be removed to let Pence gain momentum for a 2020 incumbent run, then #5 above is what they’ll want. But they’ll also want the vote to happen after most primaries have already happened so incumbents can vote for removal without the immediate backlash at the ballot box. That vote of “conscience” (survival) will give them the strongest foundation in the general.
They can even do the “Wicked Witch’s Guards Ploy.” Remember how, in the “Wizard of Oz,” the witch’s guards suddenly turned from lions to pussycats when their leader was liquified? They woke from the spell and handed Dorothy the broom. Some GOP incumbents will find the right issue as the last straw, and stand in crafted indignation as if the spell of Trumpism was just broken.
If the vote happens before the primaries, some will vote to acquit regardless, despite all evidence, assessing that there are enough Trump-or-bust zealots in their states to make it through the primaries. The #1 scenario above is the only one that would allow for this timing on the vote since McConnell will know who’s in line and who isn’t. Trump will claim victory and steal more headlines as the Democratic primaries sort out who his opponent will be.
But as more comes out on Trump, Russia, Ukraine, and the Kurd fiasco, the prospects of many GOP “old guard” candidates in the general will be iffy at best. The conservative electorate has their own tipping point too, and it’s hard to know how many millions will have reached it a year from now. And once that bridge is crossed, the mountain of lies will bury any trust in today’s GOP for them.
If #2 or #3 above plays out, the Trump coattails will be toxic. Without that enthusiastic yet clueless block, GOP incumbents are likely to be #FinalTermRepublicans.
Option #4 would be the most damaging for party survival. Trump running another shot at the White House would make a point of skewering every Republican that voted against him, and the GOP would have to settle for a non-viable candidate at the top of the ticket. That would deprive the party of any attempt at resurrecting their image, with tepid party support further undercutting candidates at the state level. Down-ticket Republicans would suffer for all who choose to stay home.
Option #6 would allow the GOP some credibility, particularly if they were to play the Wicked Witch’s Guards Ploy. But in order to retain any chance at power, McConnell, McCarthy, Graham, and other figureheads would have to step down or lose in the primaries. No more honorable reformation of the GOP can happen with those players still in office.
For option #7 to work in the GOP’s favor, they must take the lead on bringing down Trump. Both in rhetoric and through a quick and humiliating trial, Trump has to fall hard with a rallying cry of integrity. Of course, the Democrats have been screaming for that all along. But with a complicit media, the facade of a reborn GOP could be turned into the rise of a host of new superheroes - if anyone might be gullible enough to fall for it. And we’ve already seen that gullibility runs deep on the right.
Pence could be sucked into the whirlpool too, and can’t be considered the savior. A fresh face is needed to lead the charge. And he or she will have to start their time in the spotlight as Pence’s VP. But the Trump playbook of braggadocio and fabrication can never be used again. A different ascent to popularity will have to be constructed, while the identical corporatist leanings need to lie beneath different rhetoric.
Then there’s option #8, resignation. Trump would have to be offered a lot to step aside. And it would have to be done in the least damaging way to his brand. Because if he does resign, he’ll want to pop back up with Trump TV.
If he were to be smart enough - or finally listen to somebody else who was - he might choose his own exit strategy. Along with a blanket pardon and keeping all his emoluments cash, he could decide the reason he’d cite for his resignation to be the campaign finance violations around Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. That would carry the least political baggage and not affect his appeal with his base one iota.
And once out of office, further impeachment inquiries would be moot. Investigations could continue, but likely without the media attention they enjoy now.
Would McConnell try to coax Trump into that option for the sake of the party mainstream staying in power and suffering the minimum amount of damage? Would he instead try to ride out #1 while hoping that election interference, voter purging, Russia-driven propaganda, and media control will be enough to stave off the coming anti-Trump groundswell? Will he try to merely punt the ball far enough down the road so that the conviction vote never even happens until after the election?
And how will the tactic of a post-convention vote affect all the Senate Republicans spared of committing early in their campaigns? Once past the hurdle of the primaries, will they stand in defiance of Trump anyway knowing that that’s the only way to survive in the general?
But there’s another dynamic to consider. How many of the 23 forced to run in 2020 might go even further with the Wicked Witch’s Guards Ploy and choose to switch to the Democratic Party? Being able to run as a Dem incumbent might be their best shot at keeping their congressional seats. Their best timing would be shortly before their state’s primary, to blindside Dems currently running and leaving the GOP hung out to dry.
Time will tell all. Despite universally damning testimony by administration staffers, FBI, and the CIA, the GOP has decided to make their bed with Trump. But with the release of his taxes, the support for Trump could fall below 25%. The sinking ship will claim all that continue to support it. And even if somehow Trump does get reelected, by hook or by crook, a Democratic Majority Leader will make mincemeat out of whatever pleasant, cushy future Trump ever expected he’d be able to BS his way into. New articles of impeachment in 2021 would be a living nightmare for him with no way to tilt the scales.