The 2018 election that sent a Democratic majority to Congress represented the beginning of a disruptive change in the American electorate. The stats on increased voter participation:
- Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.
- Voter turnout increased among non-Hispanic Asians by 13 percentage points, a 49 percent increase.
- Among Hispanics, voter turnout increased by 13 percentage points, a 50 percent increase in Hispanic voter turnout.
- Non-Hispanic Black voter turnout increased by 11 percentage points.
- Unlike the 2014 midterm election, voter turnout among those living in nonmetropolitan areas (up 8 points) was lower than for those living in metropolitan areas (up 12 points).
Had these voters shown up in 2016 Hillary would be President.
Non white populations in the USA are much younger than the white population: 60% of Hispanics are Millennials or younger, 50% of the Black population and 46% of the U.S. Asian population are Millennials or younger. Among whites, the nation’s oldest racial group, only 39% are Millennials or younger.
The older, whiter, more male and more rural a voter population is the more likely they are to vote for Trump and Ultra right-wing Republicans. The younger, more urban, more female and less white a voting population is the more likely they are to vote for a Progressive Democrat.
While the media obsesses over Democrats winning over “moderate” white Republicans in the suburbs and a few thousand white blue collar voters that voted for Obama and then Trump in the Rust belt... the electoral elephant in the room goes unmentioned.
A sleeping giant was awakened in the 2018 elections and it still has much more room to grow to reach the participation levels of seniors. The numbers dwarf the number of never Trump Republicans and Obama to Trump voters. The key to sweeping the Republican Party from power for good is to amplify a trend that started in the midterms among the young and People of Color and turn it into an unbeatable Democratic majority.
So who among the top four Democratic candidates are exciting this demographic?
Joe Biden’s support among the young of all races is pretty dismal:
An Iowa State University poll found him earning the support of just 2% of caucus-goers younger than 34. A WBUR-FM poll of New Hampshire shows him earning the support of 0% of voters younger than 30. Among the younger voters, just 29% have a favorable opinion of him while 55% have an unfavorable opinion.
Biden’s great strength is among older African Americans who see him as the safest bet against Trump.
Mayor Pete’s base? Older, whiter, wealthier. His polling with African Americans is near zero. Even older Black voters don’t like him. Fatal numbers for any Democrat hoping to be President.
Senator Warren’s supporters are 71% white. Not a great balance for a Progressive Democrat so close to the primaries.
Bernie Sanders supporters are far younger, more female, more urban and less white than any of the leading 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Only 49% of Bernie’s supporters are white and he is by a large margin the favorite candidate of young people of every racial group. Sander’s base is a perfect snapshot of the demographic future of the Democratic Party and the path to an unassailable Democratic majority.
But is there a realistic chance of Sanders winning the nomination? Absolutely. His numbers in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada have him close enough to be a possible winner in all three states. If Sanders wins then that really changes everything going into South Carolina.
A lot of voters are prioritizing electability over agreement on issues. A third of Biden voters counted electability as the main reason they are supporting him. Older African Americans want someone white people will vote for to ensure we don’t get 4 more years of Trump. There is too much at stake to take any chances.
But what if all those white people in Iowa and New Hampshire vote for Bernie? In polling African Americans of all ages agree with Sanders, not Biden on the issues. According to Morning Consult as of 12/16/2019 Sanders is the second choice of Biden and Warren voters. If the electability argument for Biden crumbles and Sanders is winning primaries — according to the polls for second choice there is a large pool of potential Bernie converts among Biden and Warren supporters — if Bernie can prove he is the electable one in the first primaries.
Moving to the center to win over Republicans voters is a loosing strategy. If we are going to base everything on older “reliable” voters, Trump will win in 2020. Because those older reliable voters are mostly white and they are the core of Trump’s base.
We need to activate our base, who came out in the midterms and crushed the Republicans and can turn out in far greater numbers in a Presidential election year against Trump.