A common refrain in the news since the House of Representatives impeached Donald Trump is that support for impeachment didn't move much during the hearings. While that is generally true, what it totally misses is the fact that support for impeachment continues to be significantly higher today than it was before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the formal inquiry back in late September. One of the best visual representations of this is FiveThirtyEight's aggregate polling on support for impeachment, which is broken down by party affiliation. Look at the spike among every group—Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike—just after Pelosi's press conference on Sept. 24.
Here are the before/after numbers from Sept. 24 to Dec. 20 (the day of this writing) on support for impeaching Trump:
- Democrats: 70.9%, 82%
- Independents: 34.4%, 44%
- Republicans: 8.5%, 10.6%
Note that support for Trump's impeachment ticked up nearly 10 points among independents. Averaging the parties together shows that overall support moved from 37.9% to 45.5%. Most recent polling has generally found a near-even split on support/opposition to impeaching Trump.
But the change is worth remembering because, prior to Pelosi's announcement, impeaching Trump was largely considered to be a suicide pact for Democrats. Now many pundits are painting it as a wash politically. In my view, it's still a net plus for Democrats. Though some Democrats in moderate districts may pay a price for voting to hold Trump to account, vulnerable Senate Republicans will have an equally tough, if not tougher, time justifying their votes to acquit Trump of a charge supported by an overwhelming amount of evidence. And in terms of majorities, House Democrats have a lot more room for error than Senate Republicans do.
That's a success story. House Democrats did the right thing, and they're still decently positioned to win 2020, while Senate Republicans are likely in slightly worse shape than they would have been without impeachment proceedings. Keep that in mind the next time you hear a reporter or analyst say impeachment was a wash.