Poll numbers for impeachment and conviction are up to 55; at least one Republican Senator, Murkowski, is making noises about breaking from McConnell’s fix-is-in strategy; and new revelations of guilt pile up every day.
Most are familiar with the potential damage of an acquittal vote to vulnterable GOP Senators like Gardner (CO), Collins (ME), McSally (AZ), Tillis (NC), maybe others. And now they will likely face a series of votes on witnesses, documents, etc, which can also prove costly to re-election.
But what about the effect of an acquittal vote on the Presidential hopes of Republican Senators like Tom Cotton (AR); Marco Rubio (FL); Josh Hawley (MO), Ben Sasse (NE) and others for 2024, or (if we’re very lucky) 2020. If Trump becomes increasingly toxic, a vote to acquit him should be equally so in the next President election. Yet any aspiring GOP candidate
must vote to acquit to have any chance in the Republican primaries. That’s the
Whipsaw dilemma.
I have always been skeptical about conventional wisdom that impeachment is politically risky for Democrats, and that a non-conviction impeachment will be seen as an exoneration. On October 13 I wrote,
Republicans: Whipsaw is coming for you. I argued the upcoming Virginia State Legislature elections tested whether sticking with Trump would be costly to VA Republicans, and it was. As it was later in Kentucky and still later in Louisiana. And most of that happened
before the impeachment hearings.
Democrats need to work to make this happen. Go to 90for90.org for ways to help.
Let’s make Cotton, Rubio et al. face the GOP Whipsaw dilemma:
Vote to Convict, No nomination;
Vote to Acquit, No Inauguration.