The state of the Democratic primary, from the Real Clear Politics polling aggregate:
Joe Biden started 2019 leading a crowded field, based on name recognition and … that’s pretty much it. He’s ending 2019 leading the field based on name recognition and … yeah, that’s pretty much it. In a campaign full of gaffes and cringe-inducing moments, nothing has shaken him from the top spot, propped up by dominant support from black Democratic voters. That unshakable wall is built on both respect and admiration for his service to President Barack Obama and a fear that America isn’t ready for a black or female nominee, with the stakes too high to mess around.
The reality is that no white male candidate has ever reached 63 million votes, while Barack Obama (twice) and Hillary Clinton both exceeded 65 million. When the party’s candidates look like its base (only 39% of white men voted Democratic in the last two election cycles), base liberal voters turn out in greater numbers. But fear is a great motivator, and no one generates fear more than Trump. As such, Biden’s black-voter firewall left little room for the race’s two top-tier black candidates—Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.
Yet Biden is clearly stuck in terms of growth. With universal name recognition, those who aren’t with him already are little motivated to choose him. As you can see above, he’s flat-lining. However, flat-lining when in the lead is better than any alternative open to him. He’s the clear and undisputed front-runner.
Meanwhile, the field is blessed and cursed with two top-tier candidates on the left, currently splitting the party’s liberal-liberal flank. Sen. Bernie Sanders has been consistently hovering around 15-20% in national polling. The trend in the chart above is not the worst—he’s budged up a bit—but in the end, his support is locked solid. There won’t be any wild swings. He’s universally known. People know who he is and what he stands for. His supporters are among the fiercest and most loyal in the field, but Sanders has shown no ability or even willingness to broadly expand beyond that number. He is running the same campaign, in both substance and style, that he ran in a losing bid in 2016.
Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been more volatile, slowly climbing into the high 20s over the course of the year, only to see her support crater after the fourth presidential debate and the rollout of her healthcare plan. It’s as if people took a look at the substance of her campaign for the first time and decided that she was too liberal for them. Remember, there’s a latent fear that “liberal” means unelectable versus Trump. And in fact, there’s evidence that a significant part of that lost support went to Pete Buttigieg (at least in Iowa)—a safer, whiter, more male option.
Still, add both Sanders and Warren, and the left beats Biden handily. But of course, you can’t add them up. Bernie Sanders isn’t about to step aside on behalf of his cause. Much like Jeremy Corbyn in the United Kingdom, Sanders would rather walk his people off a cliff than “surrender” to an actual Democrat (even if that Democrat gets to more than 90% of his agenda). Meanwhile, Warren has built a solid organization in the early states and has a demonstrated the ability to expand her base of support, but has clearly faltered. As it stands, she can’t lay claim to the left, not when she herself trails Sanders. So the big question is, has she lost those former supporters for good? That’s what we’ll find out early next year. But if the party’s left flank remains a house divided, the chances of Biden snagging the nomination increase exponentially.
My biases are clear—I’ve made clear from the very beginning that we will do best in 2020 if we have a woman leading the ticket. After Harris’ premature exit from the race, Warren is the party’s best bet to nominate someone reflective of the party’s base. But her ability to consolidate the left will depend for the most part on her performance in the early states, and that is unfortunate.
Pete Buttigieg is a bit of a weird anomaly—a small liberal college-town mayor who has never garnered more than 9,000 votes in any election. In the last debate, he upended Democratic convention by making an impassioned case for big money in politics.
And yet, there he is, leading in Iowa in several polls. Iowa is a nonrepresentative white, rural, older state that has no business making any early decisions for a party that is brown, urban, and young. Buttigieg’s national poll numbers remain mired in the mid-single digits, and his black support (literally at zero) is likely a primary death sentence. Word is that he (and Warren) have the best Iowa ground games. So a top finish (if not outright victory) in the state seems quite possible. Would that catapult him into serious contention post-Iowa? Who the heck knows anymore? I still can’t believe Biden is still politically alive, much less leading this field.
What we do know is that we’re in the stretch run of the preprimary season. Real votes are just around the (calendar’s) corner.