The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NC-02: Republican Rep. George Holding announced on Friday that he would not seek re-election, acknowledging that North Carolina's newly redrawn congressional districts "were part of the reason" for his decision.
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Those new boundaries, brought about by a recent lawsuit, dramatically reshaped the state's 2nd District, which Republicans had carefully gerrymandered to wrap around the city of Raleigh and avoid its many Democratic voters. The new district instead compactly embraces the city and, had it been in place at the time, would have given Hillary Clinton a dominant 60-36 win in 2016 (Trump carried the 2nd 53-44 under the old lines).
With that shift, the district became impossible for Holding to win. To put its lean in perspective, in the 2018 midterms, House Republicans failed to carry even a single district where Clinton took a majority of the vote, let alone 60%. Holding's only alternative would have been to challenge a fellow Republican in a neighboring district in a primary, an option he eschewed. He has, however, held open the possibility of seeking a comeback in 2022, when North Carolina will again have a new congressional map (likely with one more seat due to reapportionment), and when Republican Sen. Richard Burr has said he'll retire.
Holding's fate should feel familiar to him, though. A one-time aide to the notorious Jesse Helms, Holding was named a U.S. attorney by George W. Bush in 2006 and, unusually, stayed on for two-and-a-half years into the Obama administration to conclude several corruption prosecutions.
After Republicans gained control of the state legislature in 2010, they shattered the existing 13th District, which had been represented by Democrat Brad Miller, transforming it from a seat that Democrats had won comfortably to one they could no longer compete in. Miller ultimately retired rather than follow through with an intra-party fight against a Democratic colleague, while Holding went on to defeat former Raleigh Mayor Paul Coble 44-34 in the 2012 GOP primary and easily won that fall.
Ahead of the 2016 elections, a federal court struck down the map that had enabled Holding to first win office on the grounds that it had discriminated against black voters. However, the replacement districts maintained the GOP's gerrymander, though it pushed Holding into a primary with Rep. Renee Ellmers.
While the prospect of a Republican-on-Republican battle might have sounded distasteful to Holding now, he had no fear three years ago. Ellmers had pissed off conservatives by suggesting Republicans should avoid appearing so crazy on abortion, and perhaps more importantly, Holding represented more of the new 2nd District. Despite a last-minute endorsed from Donald Trump, Holding crushed Ellmers 53-26.
Holding never faced a difficult general election campaign until last year's blue wave, when he defeated former state Rep. Linda Coleman 51-46, the closest margin of his brief congressional career. Several Democrats are now running to succeed him, and the one thing we can say for sure is that one of them will win.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: Democratic state Sen. Jen Jordan, who's been considering a bid for Senate, says that wealthy businesswoman Kelly Loeffler's appointment to the post has only made the prospect of running "more appealing."
"Republicans are trying to play identity politics by picking a woman, thinking that somehow that's just what women do—just vote for women," Jordan explained. "If that were the case, we would have had a female president a long time ago." She added, "When a candidate picked specifically for women comes out of the gate with issues that aren't No. 1, 2 or 3 on any woman's list that I know of, it comes across as inauthentic."
Indeed, Loeffler clanged out the gate declaring herself to be "pro-Second Amendment, pro-military, pro-wall, and pro-Trump" and tweeted out an article calling her "unapologetically pro-life." As Jordan put it, "[I]t really isn't about the messenger. It's the message." Just ask the folks who told John McCain to put Sarah Palin on his ticket.
Meanwhile, a Democratic attorney, Michael Jablonski, has pointed out to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jim Galloway that the filing deadline for the special Senate election will likely be much later than for the state's regular Senate race. Jablonski, who was Barack Obama's chief counsel for his re-election campaign in Georgia, cited a provision of state law that specifies filing for special elections for federal office can end no later than 60 days before Election Day—which in this case would be Sept. 4.
Georgia's normal filing deadline is March 6, but that's for candidates who want to run in the May 19 primary. For the special, there is no primary: All candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters (regardless of party) advancing to the January 2021 runoff if no one takes a majority.
Galloway says that unnamed GOP experts think a different statute applies and that the deadline will be much earlier, though if Republicans think there's some advantage to be wrested away from Democrats, the legislature could always step in.
It's hard to see how this loophole could really be exploited, though. Conceivably a Democrat who loses the regular primary could try again in the special, though such a candidate wouldn't look very appealing. Or, if we're engaging in some late-night call-in sports radio-style speculation, perhaps Stacey Abrams could make a very late entry. First-time, long-time, gonna hang up and listen now.
● ME-Sen: Remember Susan Collins? She's been fundraising as though she's planning to run for a fifth term but never formally confirmed she'll actually seek re-election. Back in July, she said she'd decide in early fall, but now that timeframe has been changed to the end of fall. Winter is coming—on Dec. 21.
● MT-Sen: Even though Montana Gov. Steve Bullock once again said he wasn't interested in running for the Senate when he dropped his bid for president on Monday, Politico reports that D.C. Democrats are still gently trying to convince him to run against Republican Sen. Steve Daines next year. The candidate filing deadline is not until March 9, and Bullock's stature and fundraising ability would allow him make a late entry and still run a competitive race.
House
● CA-50: On Friday, three days after he pleaded guilty to a single charge of conspiracy to convert campaign funds to personal use, GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter announced that he would resign “[s]hortly after the Holidays.”
Hunter may not get much to do during his final weeks in Congress, though, because House rules prohibit members from casting votes if they’ve been convicted of a crime that could include a prison sentence longer than two years. Hunter, who is set to be sentenced in mid-March, is facing up to five years in jail, though the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that it’s more likely he’ll serve eight to 14 months. The House Committee on Ethics warned Hunter about this rule on Thursday, one day after he violated it by voting on three measures.
It’s not clear when, or even if, there will be a special election for this 55-40 Trump seat in inland San Diego County. Because California’s candidate filing deadline passed on Friday, state law allows Gov. Gavin Newsom to decide if there will be a special or if the district will be vacant until after the November 2020 election.
The top-two primary for the full term in the next Congress will take place in early March. California automatically extends the filing deadline five days in contests where the incumbent chooses not to file for re-election, so the field won’t be set here until Wednesday.
P.S.: In February of 2016, Hunter was one of the first two GOP House members to endorse Donald Trump in the presidential primary. The other one was New York Rep. Chris Collins, who resigned at the end of September right before he pleaded guilty to charges related to insider trading. Like Hunter, Collins is currently awaiting sentencing.
● NC-06: First-term state Rep. Derwin Montgomery has entered the Democratic primary in North Carolina's redrawn 6th District, which recently became much bluer thanks to a new map brought about by a lawsuit that blocked the state's old lines from being used. While Montgomery is just 31, he served almost a decade on the Winston-Salem City Council before getting appointed to the legislature in the middle of last year (he won a full term in the fall).
Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by a wide 59-38 margin in the new 6th, according to new calculations released by Daily Kos Elections. As such, Republican Rep. Mark Walker has indicated he probably will not seek re-election here, but other Democrats are likely to be interested.
One, in fact, is already running: businesswoman Kathy Manning, who ran a hard-fought race last year for the old 13th District but lost to Republican Rep. Ted Budd 52-46. That seat was much redder than the one she's running for now, though it makes up 44% of the new 6th, meaning Manning should start out with some residual name recognition.
Interestingly, while the new district's voting-age population is 57% white and 31% black, many of those white voters are Republicans. As a result, black voters had a small 48-46 edge when applying turnout statistics from the 2016 Democratic primary to the new district lines. If voting patterns fall along racial lines, it could give a boost to a candidate like Montgomery, who is black (Manning is white), though of course, the calculus would change if others join the race. Also note that under North Carolina law, runoffs are held if no one clears 30% of the vote in the primary.
● NH-01: Republicans have yet to land a challenger to freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire's notoriously swingy 1st Congressional District, though former state GOP vice chair Matt Mayberry now says he'll launch a campaign in January. Mayberry, an Air Force veteran and former Dover city council member, had considered a bid last cycle, when the seat was open, but ultimately declined.
WMUR's John DiStaso also reports that former Trump State Department official Matt Mowers is giving "serious consideration" to running. Mowers previously served as executive director of the state party and as a top aide to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
● NJ-02: West Cape May Commissioner John Francis, who'd reportedly been weighing a challenge to Rep. Jeff Van Drew in next year's Democratic primary, has confirmed that he's "seriously considering" a bid. Francis' borough of West Cape May is home to just 1,000 people.
