Leading Off
● Michigan: In a setback in the fight against Republican gerrymandering, a federal district court has rejected the proposed settlement agreement that new Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recently reached with the plaintiffs who were suing over the GOP's congressional and state legislative gerrymandering. Benson took over as the lead defendant from her Republican predecessor, but GOP state legislators had already been allowed to intervene to defend the maps, and the court decided Benson lacked the authority to settle the case by herself.
Campaign Action
Consequently, this case is set to go to trial on Feb. 5, and the district court recently ordered the GOP to hand over additional documents shedding light on their intent behind drawing the districts. However, Republicans had already asked the Supreme Court to halt the proceedings until it resolves two upcoming major cases on partisan gerrymandering in Maryland and North Carolina, which likely won't see rulings until June.
The high court has given the parties to the case until Monday morning to weigh in on the stay request. Ultimately, the plaintiffs may have a much worse chance of prevailing at trial given the Supreme Court's lurch to the right with Justice Brett Kavanaugh's appointment.
Voting Access and Electoral College
● Colorado: Fresh off of gaining unified control of state government in 2018, Democrats have used their new state Senate majority to pass a bill on a party-line vote that would have Colorado join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Should the bill become law, Colorado would award its nine Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote, but only if enough states with a 270-vote majority of the Electoral College also join up—currently, states (and D.C.) with a combined 172 electoral votes are part of the compact.
● Hawaii: Hawaii Democrats have introduced several election bills that would make it much easier to vote, including proposals for automatic voter registration, universal vote-by-mail, lowering the voting age to 16 in state and local elections, and pre-registration of 16- and 17-year-olds so they will automatically be added to the rolls when they turn 18. Another proposal would enable automatic recounts in very close elections, something that candidates currently have to request.
While Democrats are more dominant in Hawaii than in any other state in the country—they have over 90 percent of seats in both chambers—Democrats have repeatedly failed to pass a universal vote-by-mail bill the last four years in a row. Consequently, there's no guarantee that any of these provisions will become law in a state that routinely ranks last or close to last in turnout.
● Maine: After securing unified control of state government in 2018, Maine Democrats are looking at a slew of proposals to expand voting access and make the electoral system fairer. Chief among these proposals are bills to automatically register eligible voters who interact with certain government services and create a regular early voting system instead of just a more complicated in-person absentee voting system. Another bill would increase funding for Maine's public campaign financing system, which is already one of the most robust in the country.
However, one proposal that aims to expand voting access presents a double-edged sword: a bill to make Election Day a holiday for state workers. While an Election Day holiday would make it easier for many state workers to find time to go to the polls, it can also impose a burden on others in society, such as working parents who would have to find childcare options if schools close. Instead, lawmakers should simply proceed with ensuring there are ample opportunities to cast a ballot before Election Day and consider moving Election Day for primaries to weekends (federal law sets November election dates).
Meanwhile, Democrats are also pushing for a state constitutional amendment to expand instant-runoff voting, also known as ranked-choice, so it also applies to state-level general elections. The voter-approved law was originally intended to apply to state-level general elections before the state Supreme Court issued a 2017 advisory opinion saying that part of the law violated the state constitution. However, since Democrats lack the two-thirds supermajorities needed to put that amendment up to a voter referendum, Republicans will almost certainly block the proposal in their ongoing fight to undermine instant-runoff voting.
● Mississippi: A committee in Mississippi's GOP-run state Senate has unanimously given initial approval to a bill that would make it much easier for college students to vote absentee at their original residence by letting them request and cast absentee mail ballots in the same fashion that military and overseas voters already do. Under the current system, Mississippi residents must have a valid excuse, send in a notarized application by mail for an absentee ballot, and then get their completed ballot notarized before they mail it back.
By contrast, this proposal carves out an exception for students at state universities, colleges, and community colleges that treats them like citizens and service members residing abroad, who can request an absentee ballot by mail, email, or fax. Importantly, students would gain the ability to use instant-runoff voting like military and overseas voters do in runoffs for primaries and special elections, which take place only a few weeks after the initial round of voting and leave voters little time to jump through existing hoops on absentee ballots.
● New Hampshire: Granite State Democrats have introduced a bill in the state Senate that would automatically register eligible voters, unless they opt out, when they do business with the state Division of Motor Vehicles. The proposal wouldn't take effect until mid 2021, and while Democrats gained control of both legislative chambers in 2018, they lack the two-thirds supermajorities needed to override a potential veto from Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Other states with GOP governors have seen some sign and others veto similar proposals.
● New Mexico: Democrats have begun quickly passing bills out of the state House's elections committee that would expand the right to vote now that they have unified control of state government, advancing legislation to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for the Electoral College, enable same-day voter registration, and establish automatic voter registration. All of these bills appear to have strong odds of passing in the other relevant committees and on the full floor of both chambers.
In a surprising yet positive development, the House elections committee also approved a bill that would end felony disenfranchisement entirely, even for those currently incarcerated. However, committee Democrats advanced that bill without a recommendation on its ultimate passage after Democratic state Rep. Daymon Ely said he didn't agree with how broad the bill's scope was, and it's possible that Democrats will restrict the measure as they continue to debate it.
● Virginia: A committee in the state House, where Republicans hold a slim 51-49 majority, has almost unanimously passed a bill to create a week of early voting by creating a system where voters would technically be casting an absentee ballot in-person without needing an excuse. Currently, Virginia is one of just 11 states where early voting isn't available and where voters need an excuse to vote absentee.
Redistricting
● North Carolina: The trial in state court over North Carolina's Republican-drawn state legislative gerrymanders has been set to begin on July 15. If this proceeds at a quick pace, similar to last year's Pennsylvania state Supreme Court case that struck down the GOP's congressional gerrymander, the resulting redistricting wouldn't even interfere with the regularly scheduled March primaries. This would further insulate this state constitutional case from federal review.
● Virginia: As expected, the federal district court handling the redrawing of Virginia's state House map to remedy the GOP's racial discrimination has ordered that the map it proposed last week be the final version for this year's elections. Consequently, 25 out of 100 districts have been altered in a way that could lead to Democrats and black voters gaining more political power. We have previously detailed why the Supreme Court is unlikely to overturn the lower court's decision after it hears the GOP's appeal in mid March.
While Virginia's state House districts will likely become fairer in this year's elections, legislators still retain full control over the levers of redistricting in the future. Nevertheless, two constitutional amendments seek to change that in time for 2021's legislative elections, when new maps must be in place following the 2020 census. However, those amendments and their backers take very different approaches, as we'll explain below.
The first amendment adheres more closely to one proposed by One Virginia 2021, a good-government group that originally backed an independent redistricting commission measure shortly after the 2018 elections. On Thursday, the state Senate, where Republicans hold a 21-19 majority, unanimously passed a heavily modified version of their amendment that creates a bipartisan commission for congressional and legislative redistricting where half the commissioners would be legislative appointees and half would be citizens picked in a process where retired judges choose citizens to serve.
Sadly for gerrymandering opponents, this proposal is weaker than what One Virginia 2021 originally proposed, but it may still curb the worst partisan gerrymanders. Compared to the original proposal, this amendment dropped criteria that included a ban on maps unduly favoring one party, a requirement to try to keep cities and counties whole, and one to preserve so-called "communities of interest." Consequently, nothing stops bipartisan gerrymandering to aid incumbents, but it would take bipartisan support for the commission to recommend a map to lawmakers, limiting the one-party distortion.
While the Senate's reform amendment stops short of the ideal, it's still far better than what state House Republicans are proposing. Their amendment includes nebulously phrased language to ensure "parity" between the two parties. However, it doesn't clarify whether that means parity based on their statewide performance or parity in the sense that both parties have an equal chance to win a majority, which could mean it would require GOP-favoring gerrymandering as Virginia trends Democratic.
Furthermore, the House GOP's amendment lets legislators draw their own gerrymanders by having practically no restriction on who could become a commissioner and then letting those members create proposals to favor those who appointed them. Most insidiously, it would let each chamber's appointed commissioners pass a gerrymander for their chamber's own districts, effectively getting rid of the veto power of requiring all plans to attain passage in both chambers and the governor's signature.
What's most baffling is why state House Republicans would propose such a reform, given that the court-drawn map mentioned above and Virginia's Democratic trend make it unlikely the GOP will keep their one-seat majorities in each chamber in November, which is the election that will determine the partisan control of redistricting for after 2020. If Virginia Republicans truly want to avoid Democratic gerrymanders and favor fairer maps next decade, they have a strong incentive to back the state Senate's redistricting commission proposal, since it has to pass both this year and after 2019 before it goes to a voter referendum.
Voter Suppression
● South Dakota: Republican legislators have introduced a new bill with numerous cosponsors that would slash the early voting period from 46 days before Election Day to just two weeks. The GOP holds lopsided majorities in both legislative chambers and can pass this bill over the opposition of Democrats if they choose.
● Wyoming: A committee in Wyoming's heavily Republican state House advanced a bill to require voter ID. In an unusual development, the bill passed five-to-four with the lone Democrat on the committee, state Rep. Andi Clifford, casting the deciding vote in favor. It's unclear why Clifford voted for such a contentious bill, and the League of Women Voters, a nonpartisan group advocating for voting rights and fair elections, has come out against the proposal.
Felony Disenfranchisement
● California: After regaining the two-thirds supermajorities needed to put constitutional amendments up to a voter referendum, California Secretary of State Alex Padilla and other Democrats have introduced an amendment that would restore the voting rights of those who are still on parole for a felony conviction. Currently, California only restores voting rights upon the completion of any prison term and parole, but not probation or post-sentence, and this reform could restore the voting rights of roughly 50,000 people on parole.