No, it has nothing to do with who Democrats choose for their presidential candidate.
It's reading the tea leaves of Trump's rally yesterday in Miami with expatriate Venezuelans, and knowing how cynical Republican presidents have been in the past when facing difficult re-election contests.
Florida is not only a swing state, often won or lost by the votes of small but crucial blocs of voters, but also the home of the largest population of former Venezuelans in the US. There are both short term and long term opportunities at stake. As the NYT puts it:
Florida is a swing state in which elections are often won or lost by tiny margins, and Trump campaign officials see a golden opportunity. If they succeed in driving Mr. Maduro from office, they believe, they may turn Venezuelan-Americans into Republican voters, much like Cuban-Americans before them. Until now, Venezuelans have been seen as leaning Democratic.
The rest is from a Brazilian-based journalist who's a former editor at NACLA (North American Congress in Latin America):
Here’s the real and terrifying reason Trump is pushing for a coup in Venezuela
On Monday, President Donald Trump met with the Venezuelan community in Miami, Florida. His speech represented more than just disdain for the country’s president Nicolas Maduro; it was a sign of what may really be behind his increasing rhetoric against Venezuela: Reelection. 2020.
Florida will be a key swing state in next year’s elections. Trump’s overtures to both the Venezuelan and Cuban-American communities were clear.
“The days of socialism and communism are numbered, not only in Venezuela but in Nicaragua and in Cuba as well,” Trump told the crowd.
But Trump’s push on Venezuela is not just about winning over key votes in Florida. It’s about sidelining progressives, distracting from domestic policies, and driving the U.S. into a war that could easily lift him into a second term.
Distraction will be increasingly important for him as the Mueller investigation draws to its close, or delivers indictments of figures all around Trump, if not Trump himself.
A war with Venezuela would not be swift, even if carried out through proxy militaries like Colombia and Brazil. Venezuela is polarized and politicized. The country has almost two million soldiers ready to serve, including reservists. Violent action would likely throw Venezuela into a bloody civil war—a war that would last well through the 2020 presidential elections.
Sound familiar?
George W. Bush launched his invasion of Iraq on March 20, 2003, the year prior to the 2004 electoral campaign. He was reelected. No WMDs were found. Nor was Osama bin Laden, though the United States did generate enough animosity that it planted the seeds for the birth of the Islamic State.
Ronald Reagan’s invasion of Grenada in October 1983 helped to lift his failing approval rating the year before his reelection.
War — it's been a tried and true path to re-election for endangered Republican presidents before.
The corporate media has shown too often that it fails in its critical task of informing citizens about the true state of affairs when there are opportunities to boost their ratings with blockbuster war coverage.
The White House has an interest in keeping the focus on Venezuela, and not on the controversies and domestic issues that have dogged Trump and his presidency. Venezuela is a way for the president to distract U.S. citizens. A way to tarnish a resurgence in the debate about socialism, which he highlighted in his State of the Union address.
With his bellicose rhetoric and point people trained in subversion and violence, Trump is willing to put peace on the line, not in the interest of the Venezuelan people, but for the United States, for U.S. corporations and conservatives.
Donald Trump’s push on Venezuela is about grabbing at the largest oil reserves in the world, making an example to any other would-be leftist leaders, and above all else, reelecting Trump in 2020.
Have Americans learned anything since George W. Bush sent troops into Iraq on a pretext and got his failing presidency a huge boost in popularity and himself another term in office? I fear not.
Would Trump, the worst and most unethical president in US history have the least qualms about following such a strategy to rescue himself? Who can doubt it?