I haven’t seen this referenced so I thought I’d post it for Sanders supporters and anyone else interested (I am not a Sanders supporter but don’t consider myself a detractor either). Nate Silver wrote an interesting article over at 538 on how the absence of Hillary Clinton may effect the Sanders campaign. It breaks down the Never Hillary vote in 2016. The Sanders discussion is unique because he has a primary record to analyze, unlike the other candidates.
From the article:
Bernie Sanders picked up support in some unusual places during his 2016 campaign to be the Democratic presidential nominee. The self-described democratic socialist won states such as Oklahoma and Nebraska that are typically associated with right-of-center policy views. He also did surprisingly well with self-described conservative voters — granted, a small-ish part1 of the Democratic primary electorate — picking up almost a third of their votes. Perhaps less surprisingly given that Sanders isn’t technically a Democrat, he performed really well with independent voters, winning them by roughly a 2:1 margin over Hillary Clinton.
So as Sanders launches his 2020 campaign as a candidate with both formidable strengths and serious challenges, his biggest problem might seem to be that there’s more competition for his base this time around, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and others also competing for the leftmost part of the Democratic electorate. An equally big problem for Sanders, however, is that voters this time around have more alternatives to Hillary Clinton — left, right and center — to choose from.
On the plus side, Silver believes that the large field is a net plus for Sanders, given his loyal following.
Its an interesting analysis. FiveThirtyEight has been publishing articles on each candidate as they enter the race, “How…..Can Win.” They also drop a podcast on the same topic. They are worth a listen for those interested in the campaign aspects of primaries.
Here’s the articles I’ve read for those interested:
Klobuchar
Booker
Harris
Warren
Gillibrand
I haven’t yet read the entries on Castro, Gabbard and Buttigieg but they are there as well. The podcasts are a good listen as well.