The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MS-Gov, Gov-by-HD: Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood is running for governor of Mississippi this year, and as we've noted before, a Jim Crow-era law means that Hood could lose even if he wins the most votes on Election Day. That's because the state's 1890 constitution requires gubernatorial candidates to win both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House.
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If no candidate wins both the popular vote and a majority of districts, the state House, where Republicans hold a wide 74-48 majority, then picks a winner from the top two finishers. Given the GOP's shamelessness in embracing undemocratic outcomes, it's unlikely they'd choose Hood, even if he wins the most votes. And thanks to Mississippi's gerrymandered map, which the GOP drew up in 2012, we know it'll be difficult for Hood to carry 62 House seats. But just how difficult?
To answer that, we can look to the results of Mississippi's 2015 statewide contests broken down by state House district, which the state has calculated. Because of serious insufficiencies in the data available from the state, Daily Kos Elections has not yet calculated the results of the 2016 presidential race by legislative district, and the state has not published results for the 2015 contests by state Senate district.
However, the data we do have gives us a good look at just how strong the GOP's House gerrymander is, and how much would need to go right for Hood if he wants to win a majority of the districts. The answer, in short, is that Hood would need a great deal of good fortune.
We'll start with a look at Hood's own 2015 re-election bid for attorney general, where he defeated Republican Mike Hurst by a 55-45 margin. Hood carried 66 state House seats while Hurst took 56, meaning that the Democrat won 54 percent of the districts while winning 55 percent of the vote. That doesn't look especially bad for Hood, but the numbers get worse for him when we drill just below the surface.
One way to assess how much this legislative map does (or doesn't) favor one party is to sort each seat in each chamber by Hood's margin of victory over Hurst and see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted. Because the state House has an even number of seats, we average the two middle seats to come up with the median point in the chamber. The median seat backed Hood 51.6-48.4, about 7.5 points to the right of his statewide win.
All this means that, if Hood had only won re-election by a narrow margin in 2015, he likely would have lost a majority of state House seats. While Hood's decisive victory allowed him to carry some very red turf, it's going to be difficult for him to win this year's gubernatorial race—where he won't have the power of incumbency on his side—by anything like a 10-point margin.
The other 2015 races do an even better job of illustrating just how rough this map is for Democrats. Republican Gov. Phil Bryant won re-election against Democrat Robert Gray by an imposing 66-32 margin statewide, but he carried the median seat 74-25, which is about 16 points to the right of the state as a whole. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, who is the GOP's frontrunner for governor this year, won his second term back then by a 60-36 margin yet carried the median seat 67-29, which is about 14 points to the right of the state.
It's difficult enough for a Democrat to win statewide office in Mississippi, a state that backed Trump 58-40. By requiring candidates to win both a majority of the vote and a majority of the state House districts under a map gerrymandered to aid the GOP, the deck is stacked against Team Blue. And none of this is an accident: This perverse provision has its roots in a racist 19th Century constitution that was explicitly designed to eliminate the power of black voters—the same voters who now make up the vast majority of the Democratic base in Mississippi.
Consequently, there's a strong case to be made that this system both violates the federal Voting Rights Act and perhaps even the Supreme Court's "one person, one vote" jurisprudence, since an equal number of votes won't be cast in each state House district. Indeed, the Supreme Court in 1963 struck down Georgia's system of determining statewide primary contests by a so-called "county unit system" that gave rural voters excess weight. However, a proposal to repeal Mississippi's system failed in the legislature last year.
One reason this law likely still remains on the books is that Mississippi has never seen a candidate win the statewide vote while losing the district-level vote. The closest this system ever came to being tested was Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove's 1999 election, when he won a 49.6-48.5 plurality over Republican Mike Parker. Both candidates carried exactly half of the state House districts, but Democrats still dominated the legislature at that point, and they easily elected Musgrove.
Mississippi Democrats missed a key opportunity back then to scrap this unfair law. However, it may not be too late for voting rights advocates to go to court to remove this ugly remnant of the Jim Crow era from the books. But Election Day is Nov. 5, so the clock is ticking loudly.
N.B.: In the document the state has provided breaking out 2015 statewide results by state House district, the total votes in each race differ slightly from the state's official summary totals found here. For instance, in the race for attorney general, the first document shows a total of 400,110 votes for Hood, while the second shows 395,969 votes. The source of the discrepancy is not clear."
Senate
● CO-Sen: On Saturday, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff strongly hinted that he was preparing to announce a challenge to GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in the coming days. Romanoff appeared at Democratic county reorganization meetings and took some shots at Gardner's record, then said he was "going to have a little more to say about Cory Gardner and what's at stake in 2020 next week."
● KS-Sen: It's not news to anyone that national Republicans are trying to recruit U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run for Kansas' open Senate seat—except maybe to one prominent national Republican. On Sunday, CBS' Margaret Brennan asked Donald Trump about reports that Pompeo had spoken to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell about running, and Trump characteristically dismissed it as "fake news." However, these aren't just reports, since even Pompeo himself acknowledged last month that McConnell had talked to him about running and asked him to "think about it."
Indeed, for once, Trump walked back a "fake news" proclamation in the face of overwhelming reality. After Brennan reminded Trump that Pompeo had indeed spoken to McConnell, Trump responded, "Well, he may have spoken to him, but I think he loves being secretary of state." Trump also insisted that he'd asked Pompeo about a Senate run "the other day," and that the secretary of state "says he's absolutely not leaving."
For his part, Pompeo tweeted later that day, "It's true @realDonaldTrump, I do love being America's most senior diplomat." However, while Pompeo went on to say how great his job was, he never ruled out running for the Senate, or even so much as mentioned the race.
If Pompeo had indeed told Trump that he was "absolutely not leaving" the State Department to run to succeed retiring Sen. Pat Roberts and meant it, there's no reason he couldn't just end all this speculation right now and say something like, "I'm not running for the Senate." Until Pompeo makes his plans clear, we're unlikely to see McConnell and his allies stop trying to recruit him. Kansas' candidate filing deadline isn't until June of 2020, so we may have to deal with these games for a long while to come.
However, while Pompeo may be able to scare off some prospective Republican primary foes if he announces, several of them are continuing to lay the groundwork. Rep. Roger Marshall has expressed interest before, and over the weekend, he said that not only was his wife onboard with him running for Senate, she wouldn't even let him finish talking to her about a campaign before telling him, "You need to do it." Marshall himself added that he's "in no hurry to make a decision," but this all sounds like a very strong signal to donors and potential supporters that he very much wants to run.
Another potential GOP candidate, state Senate President Susan Wagle, said a few weeks ago that she planned to form an exploratory committee, but as of Monday, she still doesn't appear to have done so. Still, Wagle is still very much eyeing a bid, and she said on Friday that she would "take a real serious look at" the contest after the legislative session concludes. The Wichita Eagle says that in Kansas, legislative sessions usually end in May or June.
Wagle also said Friday that she was "worried" that former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat who went on to serve as Barack Obama's secretary of health and human services, "will be recruited," and added, "I think I could hold that seat." However, it seems likely that Wagle is bringing up Sebelius in order to pitch herself as the most electable Republican candidate rather than out of actual fear about the former governor running. Last year, Sebelius said she was "not going to run again for anything myself," and there's no indication that she's eyeing this race.
● NJ-Sen: While state law allows Democratic Sen. Cory Booker to run for president and for re-election at the same time, he hasn't committed to doing this yet. Booker, who announced he would seek the White House on Friday, said he was "grateful New Jerseyans pulled together to make sure that that possibility is there, but my focus is running for president of the United States." In any case, it's very unlikely any serious Democrats will enter the Senate race unless Booker makes it clear he's not seeking re-election.
Gubernatorial
● VA-Gov: Gov. Ralph Northam, continuing to defy universal calls for his resignation, convened a gathering of top administration officials of color on Sunday night, but according to CNN, not one attendee told Northam he should remain in office. Northam reportedly also told a regularly scheduled cabinet meeting on Monday that he wanted time to "clear his name" lest he be branded a "racist for life," but CNN's source called the governor's explanation of his racist yearbook photo and Michael Jackson blackface impersonation "untenable."
Meanwhile, the situation has only gotten uglier in the Old Dominion. Late on Sunday night, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, a fellow Democrat who's first in line to succeed Northam, released a statement denying an unspecified "false allegation" released by an "online publication," claiming the Washington Post had investigated the matter and declined to run a story on it.
The allegations, it turned out, first appeared in Big League Politics, the same right-wing site that published Northam's yearbook photo. According to the Post, which did finally publish a piece on the matter after Fairfax issued his statement, an unnamed woman accused Fairfax of sexually assaulting her in his hotel room at the Democratic National Convention in Boston in 2004, an encounter Fairfax described as consensual. The paper says it chose not to run a story on the topic after the woman approached it following Fairfax's 2017 election victory because it could not corroborate her account, nor could it find "similar complaints of sexual misconduct" against Fairfax.
Fairfax then turned around and accused Northam's team of having circulated the allegations as a means of thwarting Fairfax's ascent to the governorship. Fairfax provided no evidence for his assertion, and an unnamed Northam adviser denied the charge to the New York Times.
However, that same aide offered a very curious claim, arguing that Northam's team "did not have the capacity to plot such a move at a moment when Mr. Northam is struggling to retain his job." Of course, such a desperate move might actually help Northam keep his job. But even if this denial is taken at face value, Northam's singular focus on saving his skin shows he's unable to govern.
But if Northam refuses to go, it doesn't appear that the legislature will force him. Kirk Cox, the Republican speaker of the state House, said on Monday he has a "rightful hesitation" about trying to oust Northam because "to some degree you're overturning an election." Of course, that stance could change soon, especially once lawmakers finish hammering out the state's budget, a task they're presently occupied with.
By the way, should both Northam and Fairfax resign, Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring would assume the governorship. Herring had already announced he'd run in 2021, after considering a bid in 2017 but ultimately deferring to Northam. If, on the other hand, Fairfax does wind up becoming governor, he'd be eligible to seek a full term in 2021, possibly setting up a primary battle with Herring.
House
● GA-07: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that, following a very weak post-Election Day fundraising report, some unnamed GOP officials are pressuring GOP Rep. Rob Woodall to "consider his options" for 2020, and it's not hard to see why they'd want him to retire. Woodall ran a very complacent campaign against Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux and ended up winning by just 419 votes. The congressman doesn't seem to have learned his lesson, since the nonprofit Issue One reports that he raised less than $8,000 from Nov. 7, the day after Election Day, until the end of 2018.
● NC-09: The new State Board of Elections, whose members were appointed by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper last week, has scheduled a Feb. 18 hearing to review allegations of absentee ballot fraud in this disputed election. Officials say they expect the hearings to last for two or three days.
● NE-02: Attorney Ann Ferlic Ashford announced on Friday that she would seek the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Don Bacon in this competitive Omaha seat. Ashford, who is the wife of former Rep. Brad Ashford, will need to get past 2018 nominee Kara Eastman in the primary before she can take on Bacon, though. Brad Ashford lost re-election to Bacon in 2016 by a 49-48 margin and tried to regain his old district the following cycle, only to lose last year's primary to Eastman 52-48.
Ann Ashford was a Republican until just after Trump's win, and her father, Randy Ferlic, served on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents as a Republican. Ashford has only run for office once, losing a nonpartisan 2012 contest to succeed her father to former GOP Omaha Mayor Hal Daub by a 53-47 margin.
Like her husband, Ashford has always identified as a moderate, and she said back in November that she firmly believed that "Democrats must reach out to moderates," and that she thought she could be someone "who can represent the entirety of the district." That could be the wrong approach in a primary, though, as Brad Ashford found out the hard way against Eastman, who successfully ran to his left in last year's primary. Eastman went on to lose to Bacon 51-49, which turned out to be a surprisingly close showing since national Democrats never ran any ads here.
● NY-27: Last year, Democrat Nate McMurray lost to GOP Rep. Chris Collins, who was and remains under indictment for insider trading, by a narrow 49.1-48.7 margin, and McMurray seems very game for another try. McMurray has kept his campaign headquarters open and he says he plans to do town hall meetings in each of this Buffalo-area district's seven counties.
McMurray told the Buffalo News that he's keeping himself prepared for another campaign because he doesn't know when there will be another race. Collins is scheduled to go on trial in February of next year, and McMurray argues that he "would not be surprised if at any moment Chris Collins resigns and says, 'Here's the plea deal,'" a move that would set off a special election. McMurray also said that last year he "came much too close to push pause," and that he wants "to complete what we started." While McMurray doesn't seem to have outright announced he's running again, there doesn't seem to be much of a question that he's planning to seek this seat again.
However, there's no guarantee that McMurray would be the Democratic nominee again, especially if there was a special election. Under New York special election law, the local county parties would pick their nominee rather than primary voters. The paper writes that some senior Democrats "privately pine for" Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, who is up for re-election this year, to be their nominee.
When asked about his interest in a congressional bid, Poloncarz said he didn't "think you rule out anything, but right now, I don't live in the district." Poloncarz added that he'd "like to consider myself a fairly progressive individual, and it's definitely a much less progressive district. I don't rule anything out, but I don't have any intention of doing it right now." This seat backed Trump 60-35.
● PA-12: Late last month, state Rep. Jeff Wheeland announced that he would seek the GOP nod for the May 21 special election to succeed former GOP Rep. Tom Marino. The Standard-Journal also writes that former Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko, who lost the 2018 primary to Marino 67-33, is running, though he hasn't publicly announced he's in yet. The other declared candidate so far is state Rep. Fred Keller. The GOP nomination will be decided by party leaders at a convention, though a date has not yet been announced.
Legislative
● Special Elections: We have a competitive special election on tap Tuesday in the Minnesota Senate, which Republicans control by just a 34-32 margin, not including this vacant seat.
MN-SD-11: This is a Democratic seat located in northeastern Minnesota, just south of Duluth. This vacancy was created when Gov. Tim Walz appointed Tony Lourey state Human Services commissioner earlier this year. The Democratic nominee in this race is Lourey's son, Stu Lourey. The younger Lourey defeated Michelle Lee, who had the backing of the state party, by a 53-47 margin in the primary in January. The GOP nominee is state Rep. Jason Rarick. There is also a third candidate on the ballot, John "Sparky" Birrenbach of the Legal Marijuana Now Party. This seat has the potential to change hands as this district backed Donald Trump 53-40 in 2016 but went for Barack Obama 55-43 in 2012.
