Mason-Dixon is out with another poll of this fall’s open seat race for governor of Mississippi, and they give Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood a 44-42 edge over GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. Back in April, they gave Hood a slightly wider 44-39 lead.
Reeves faces an August primary with state Rep. Robert Foster, but Mason-Dixon finds Reeves winning by a 62-9 margin. They did not test Hood, who is also the clear favorite to win his primary, against any intra-party opponents. If anyone else wants to join either primary, they need to make their plans clear by the March 1 filing deadline.
Former Mississippi Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. has shown some interest in running for governor as well, but it’s not clear with what party, if any. Waller is the son of former Democratic Gov. Bill Waller, who served in the 1970s, and WLBT says that the younger Waller is a Republican. However, there has been speculation that Waller could instead run as an independent, and Mason-Dixon tests this three-way contest. They find Hood leading Reeves 40-38, while Waller takes 9.
However, while his presence doesn’t impact Hood’s 2-point lead in this race, Waller or another independent candidate could make it all the more difficult for anyone to win the majority of the vote. That's very important because, as we've noted before, Mississippi’s 1890 state constitution contains a Jim Crow-era provision that requires gubernatorial candidates to win both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House; if someone fails to hit both of these benchmarks, the state House picks the new governor from the top two finishers.
It's already going to be tough enough for Hood to clear both these hurdles as long as this law remains in effect, and it probably won't be any easier if a notable independent is also on the ballot.