It’s easy to be constantly caught up in the Trump show in the United States, but across the pond, our older sister has been equally consumed with the Brexit show. Since the ill-advised 2016 referendum, Brexit has been essentially the singular dividing issue in British politics more so than any issue and to complicate matters it doesn’t follow nicely along the political divide creating a lot of internal political divides.
Prime Minister Theresa May has proven to be incredibly resilient since taking over the leadership from David Cameron in July 2016. She overplayed her hand by seeking an early election in June 2017 in which she had hoped to increase the 2015 Conservative majority but instead lost it resulting in a hung parliament. The government was able to secure a confidence and supply agreement with the far-right Northern Ireland, DUP, but it put her government in a much weaker position. Most surprising is that May didn’t face a leadership contest soon after the dismal result which is largely blamed on her lackluster campaign effort rather than any ideological divide regarding Brexit.
The results were much worse for May because they emboldened the eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party, the European Research Group (ERG) led by MP Jacob Rees-Mogg to push for a harder Brexit with the support of the DUP. As May approached her December 2018 deadline to vote on the Brexit deal the ERG pushed for a motion of No-Confidence vote in the party, which she survived with a majority of just 83 [1]. The vote put the Prime Minister on the weakest footing since the 1990 leadership contest against then Prime Minister Margret Thatcher.
May was largely able to survive because she promised not to lead the party in the next general election, seek some concessions from the EU regarding the Irish backstop, and the fact that there was no clear contender to take the reigns of the party this late in the Brexit negotiations. Of course, the ERG still called on her to resign, but it does mean that May is safe from another leadership challenge until December 2019.
May put off the vote for her Brexit deal until January 2019 where the government suffered the largest defeat in modern history by a 432-202 margin. [2] The opposition led by Jeremy Corbyn called for a Motion of No Confidence which May won by 325 to 306. [3] No Prime Minister in modern history has managed to survive this many political and legislative failures.
All of this brings us to this week where there will be a succession of votes on May’s Brexit deal, no deal Brexit, and extending Article 50. Until late last night, May’s Brexit deal was identical to what failed so spectacularly in January. However, May was able to secure some concessions from the EU to soften the controversial backstop. It remains unclear whether these concessions will be able to win over the hardcore Brexiters in the ERG and DUP. There is some indication that May might be wearing some MPs down with the risk of crashing out on March 29th becoming much more likely.