Introduction
It’s that time of year folks, Virginia has an legislative election on it’s hands. Just kidding they have an election that affects the whole state every year. Well this year Democrats have an opportunity to take both houses of the Virginia legislature. This would be historic because if Dems were to do this it would be the first time in history that a former Confederate state would have a truly liberal government top-to-bottom. In the past Virginia as other states in the South were dominated by the white supremacist Dixiecrats and than later by the Conservative Blue Dog Democrats. All Dem held legislatures in the South needed these Blue Dog politicians in order to win. This became an issue when Obama became President and suddenly throughout the South and Appalachia white voters stopped voting for Blue Dogs. Now Virginia Democrats with their Blue Dogs extinct can win with a suburban coalition to achieve power with candidates who are solidly progressive on most issues a sea-change from less than a decade ago. That means very liberal non-washed down laws that will expand voting rights, protect a woman’s right to choose, end gerrymandering, implement common sense gun control, protect the environment, and repeal Virginia’s right to work laws.
This diary will explore specifically the Virginia House of Delegate races looking at the ones I think will e competitive and finally profiling the candidates that you should consider donating too if you want the most bang for your buck at this time. I rank this “bang for your buck” as those who are in A. Marginal seats who really need money B. Are not currently favored in my own personal opinion and C. do not face a competitive primary so they can just focus on winning in the general election. With that on too the races.
1. The Top Tier races!
These are the seats that Clinton won but are currently held by a Republican. These numbers were greatly expanded after the racial gerrymander in the Hampton Roads area was struck down by the courts and were forced to redraw. They are:
HD-40: Tim Hugo
This is the one that got away in 2017. Current Majority Caucus Chairmen Tim Hugo’s seat. Hillary won this seat by double digits as did Northam, Fairfax, and Herring. Kaine blew it out of the water here against Stewart. Our candidate here is former congressional candidate, Veteran, and Rhodes Scholar Dan Helmer. I am not a fan of him for obvious reasons but he has money and if he acts like a normal human being he could win it.
HD-66: Kirk Cox
In Richmond’s suburbs this is our first redistricted seat and it’s held by none other than the Speaker of the House Kirk Cox. Our candidate running here is the fantastic Sheila Bynum-Coleman who will need a ton of money to defeat someone as loaded as Cox. Hillary won these new lines by six. Do you want to beat a Republican Speaker of the House? Because I sure do.
HD-83: Chris Stolle
Another redistricted seat. Under these new lines this seat went to Clinton by six according to VPAP. Stolle is a member of Virginia Beach’s powerful Stolle family so he will be tough to beat. The Democratic nominee is Virginia Beach school board member Nancy Guy.
HD-91: Open (Gordon Helsel)
This seat is open after it got redistricted and the Republican incumbent decided to retire. The Dem nominee here is businessman Michael Wade who is now probably the favorite to win in November (A Republican as of this writing hasn’t even filed here yet)
HD-94: David Yancey
This was the race that infamously went down in a tie breaker which the incumbent Yancey won. This time the 2017 Democratic candidate Shelly Simonds is back for a rematch. Redistricting has been especially unkind to Yancey as his seat went from a narrow Clinton win to a Clinton double digit win. I have a really hard time seeing how he survives this round.
HD-100: Robert Bloxom
The one Clinton seat in the Hampton Roads that wasn’t affected by the court ordered redistricting this seat has been a tough nut to crack. Situated in Virginia’s Eastern Shore and a small piece of Norfolk this seat went to Clinton by three and was once held by State Senator Lynwood Lewis before he ran for his current Senate seat. It is now held by current Delegate Robert Bloxom. He has been the past two races blessed by running against the perennial weirdo Willie Randall. This year he faces an exciting Democratic candidate former Obama fellow Phil Hernandez who seems like a very strong candidate. This race, unless Bloxom decides to hang it up, will be a Marquis race for sure.
2. The Second Tier Races!
These races are in seats that Trump won but Northam and Kaine carried. Most of these were surprisingly close in 2017 and hopefully can be won this year.
HD-27: Roxann Robinson
Located in Chesterfield county in Richmond’s suburbs this seat went for Trump by three before Northam won it. Since than Kaine and Spanberger, at the congressional level, have also won this seat, and the whole of Chesterfield is zooming left. Our 2017 candidate Larry Barnett is running again and only fell 129 votes short last time. Hopefully he can make that up this time around.
HD-28: Bob Thomas
This Fredricksburg-Stafford county based seat has the dubious distinction of being the only Obama-Trump district in the state. Our nominee last time ordained preacher and State Senate staffer Joshua Cole is running again after a very narrow loss which had a few shenanigans in the counting. An intriguing fact is that the incumbent Republican is facing a very serious seeming primary challenge from his right even if he wins could considerably drain his resources and divide Republican voters and if the primary challenger wins the same issue except that he isn’t an incumbent. Something to keep an eye on.
HD-62: Open (Riley Ingram)
Another Richmond suburb seat. This seat went to Trump by five but Northam and Kaine both won it. Ingram was one of the first delegate members to retire this cycle. He is replaced by Chesterfield school board member Carrie Conyers for the Republicans who will likely be tough to beat. We have two candidates here but the front runner as of now appears to be veteran and NAACP President Tavorise Marks.
HD-81: Knight
A final redrawn district in the Hampton Roads. This seat went from a solid Trump seat to a narrow Trump seat. Long term incumbent Barry Knight hasn’t faced a competitive election in forever and faces retirement planner Len Myers. If Dems win this race it would be a sign that we will have gained a large majority in the House of Delegates.
HD-84: Glenn Davis
This Virginia Beach seat only went to Trump by four and Northam and Kaine both won it. This seems like a strong place to compete but unfortunately our candidate is not so great. The candidate is teacher and weirdo Karen Mallard who you may remember for running for Congress and losing the primary to Elaine Luria. During that race she raised literally nothing, got in trouble with the ATF over her ads (where she destroys and AR-15), went on a whine fest after the primary was over, and has ties to MSNBC contributor Krystal Ball’s extremely sketchy ScamPAC. If she’s learned how to raise money and not do dumb things this could be a race but I’m not super optimistic.
3. The Long Shots!
These seats due to trends in the area or the Republican incumbent could be competitive in a great Democratic year. Let’s check them out.
HD-26: Tony Wilt
This district contain the college town or Harrisonburg and it’s surrounding areas. The city of Harrisonburg is blue while the rest of the area around it is red. Fun Fact! You know the “we are glad you are our neighbor” written in English, Spanish, and Arabic and commonly found in liberal area? Those were made in Harrisonburg and were made as a response to the cities growing Latino community and the resettlement of Iraqi refugees. The city is not big or blue enough to dominate like Charlottesville or Roanoke, or even be D-leaning like the Blacksburg seat. Still Kaine won it and we have two decent sounding candidates (Cathy Copeland and Brent Finnegan). In a big win this seat could get swept up.
HD-33: Dave LaRock
This is a pretty red seat in the DC exurbs. Even Corey Stewart won it though narrowly. The biggest reason that this one is one to watch is Dave LaRock himself. He is an enormous asshole, terrible fundraiser, and frequent under performer electorally relative to the district’s redness. Teacher and Horse farmer Mavis Taintor has already out raised him and should give him a run for his money. One to keep an eye on.
4. Finally, The Defenses!
Two freshman incumbents have relinquished their seats in order to run for the State Senate and the seats they leave behind are more vulnerable so it’s important to defend these newly opened seats.
HD-73: Rodman
Debra Rodman is running to face Siobhan Dunnavent in the State Senate leaving her Richmond suburb, narrow Clinton seat open. The new Democratic candidate is technology business man Rodney Willett and he will need money to hold this seat.
HD-85 Turpin
Delegate and former high school science Cheryl Turpin is running for the State Senate leaving her Virginia Beach based seat open. It was redrawn to be a Clinton seat so it’s quite a bit safer now. The Democratic candidate is Alex Askew, delegate Jay Jones Chief of Staff.
Bang For Your Buck!
All right now lets go through a list of candidates that would be the best investment of your money in the long run. These are in no particular order.
Larry Barnett for HD-27
Larry Barnett is a veteran of the Coast Guard and a leader with Chesterfield County Mental Health Support Services, he developed and implemented innovative, caring, and effective programs for those affected by mental illness. He is a man who cares deeply about his community and want to better serve that community in the political sphere. He ran against Robinson in 2017 coming only 192 votes short. This year with your help he will go the distance. Donate here!
Sheila Bynum-Coleman for HD-66
Sheila Bynum-Coleman is a small business owner and community activist running to make change in her community. She has the opportunity to beat Kirk Cox the Speaker of the House of Delegates and the prime roadblock to progress in Virginia. Coleman will need a lot of money to topple Cox and that starts here. Donate here!
Joshua Cole for HD-28
Joshua Cole and ordained youth preacher and Staff Assistant to the Clerk of the Virginia State Senate. In the last election and finished 73 votes short after a recount. The election results were challenged by Cole after 384 voters were directed to vote in the wrong district due to mislabeled district lines. Fortunately that issue has been fixed and with proper investment (which he did not get last year) he will pull it off. Donate Here!
Phil Hernandez for HD-100
Phil is an Obama fellow, civil rights attorney, and graduate of the College of William and Mary. He is taking on one of the toughest incumbents in a Clinton seat Robert Bloxom. This will be a fight but Phil can do it. He has already gotten some outside attention like being endorsed by Run For Something. Phil Hernandez would be the first Latinx person to represent the Hampton Roads area. Donate Here!
Karen Mallard for HD-84
I said some rather critical things about Karen but she's the nominee so I support her. I don't think she is hopeless if she can raise money and build a more disciplined campaign. Let's give this progressive public school teacher a helping hand to beat Glenn Davis. Donate Here
Nancy Guy for HD-83
Nancy Guy is a lifelong Virginia Beach resident and current member of the Virginia Beach school board. She faces Chris Stolle the current incarnation of the powerful political Stolle family who are well established in this parochial area. Guy will need money to beat Stolle and a lot of it.