Wind and solar are killing coal. Battery storage, for load balancing and time shifting, is just about to start killing gas. The same batteries in EVs will kill gasoline and diesel fuel.
Load balancing for intermittent power sources, notably wind and solar, has raised new issues in power engineering design, but engineering schools have taught how to do it in general for more than a century.
The problem of load balancing arose soon as electricity was offered to homes and factories and offices along with the new-fangled Swan (UK) and Edison (US) electric light bulbs. The amount of electricity produced had to exactly match the amount used. A slight variation in the brightness of the lights was tolerable, but not brownouts from low voltage, or blown filaments from high voltage. And so began the intricate dance of bringing generators online or taking them offline, and especially of trying to predict demand based on known usage according to the seasons, the days of the week and the time of day. The new issue with wind and solar is predicting supply, according to the weather as well as the seasons and time of day.
One of the moldy old lies about Renewable Energy that I didn’t bother with last week was that we can’t get to 100% renewables with wind and solar being intermittent. But power engineers knew perfectly well decades ago how to integrate storage with renewables to create a system with fewer brownouts and blackouts than we get now. It is the same math for peaker natural gas plants. We just apply it to the output of flywheels or batteries or hydrogen or whatever, allowing for how fast each can be tapped. (Hint: Batteries are by far the fastest, in milliseconds.) After that the problem is financial, not a question of engineering. It depended on the cost of storage coming down in the same way as wind and solar.
And here we are, at the righthand side of the graph up top.
LCOE for li-ion batteries has fallen to $187/MWh — BNEF
Don’t worry about the exact number. Others have done the calculations, and here is the result.
Lithium-ion batteries are increasingly posing a competitive threat to coal- and gas-fired generating plants when paired with solar and wind projects in a number of markets throughout the world, without the need for subsidies, according to new research by BloombergNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance).
Since the first six months of 2018, the benchmark levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for lithium-ion batteries has plunged 35% to $187/MWh, BNEF says.
Coal and gas, without subsidies. The good news continues over the break.
BNEF also included wind and solar in that analysis.
For projects that have gone into construction in the opening months of this year, the LCOE for solar PV stands at $57/MWh, down 18% from a year earlier. Recent analysis also shows that the benchmark LCOE for offshore wind has tumbled by 24% over the past year, while the onshore wind LCOE has dropped 10%. These “spectacular” declines in cost, BNEF says, suggest that lithium-ion batteries and offshore wind in particular “are now at the center” of the global energy transition.
Offshore wind turbines produce more electric power more regularly than turbines on land, but had much higher construction costs, and thus higher cost overall. We are now past that problem.
The LCOE per megawatt-hour for onshore wind, solar PV and offshore wind have fallen by 49%, 84% and 56% respectively since 2010. That for lithium-ion battery storage has dropped by 76% since 2012, based on recent project costs and historical battery pack prices.
“They”, the naysaying pundits that have plagued Silicon Valley, kept telling us that the cost per transistor for ICs couldn’t keep falling, that the cost of hard disks and flash drives couldn’t keep falling, and that the speed of Internet connections couldn’t keep going up. Long experience has taught me not to bet against the technologists and the device physicists when real money is at stake.
This isn’t a hard promise, but if the cost of renewables were to fall by half every ten years until 2050, which is to say three such periods, then renewables would cost less than an eighth as much as the cheapest fossil fuel alternative. Coal, oil, and gas would be long gone, except for certain non-burning applications. Then we could use that super-cheap energy to make hydrogen and jet fuel, both of which count as energy storage.
Falling battery costs to push solar, wind to 50% electricity generation by 2050, but electricity still failing CO₂ reduction targets – BNEF
Solar PV capacity is set to grow 17-fold, and wind six-fold, by 2050, to account for nearly half of global electricity generation, predicts BNEF, while investments will reach US$11.5 trillion. Cost reductions will drive this charge, particularly in the battery market, which will benefit from the EV manufacturing ramp up. Despite this, the electricity sector is still failing to bring CO₂ emissions down to the required levels, with its continued dependence on gas.
Nah, gas is just at the tipping point against wind, solar, and batteries, where it is about to start going away, like coal before it, and whale oil and kerosene lighting long before that. And growth is going to be faster than that. We should be nearing 100% renewables worldwide in 2050. But that will be the topic for another Friday.
In its 2018 New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) sees skyrocketing growth in the global solar and wind energy markets up to 2050.
Overall, it anticipates that solar and wind will account for nearly half of global electricity generation by this date, driven by “precipitous“ cost reductions – leading to levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) falling 71% by 2050, following a 77% decrease between 2009 and 2018, says BNEF – and “cheaper and cheaper” batteries.
“We expect battery pack prices to fall to $96/kWh by 2025 and $70/kWh by 2030.”
Nope. Again, costs will fall much faster than that, and market penetration will also be faster.
At the end of May, BNEF forecast that EVs will make up 44% of all new vehicle sales in Europe by 2030, 41% in China, 34% in the U.S. and 17% in Japan. India trails with a forecast of just 7% forecast. Buses meanwhile, are set to go electric at great pace and on a global scale.
OK. We’ll dive deeper into those markets on another Friday, and ask who gets to sell those EVs.
Overall, Henbest forecasts that US$548 billion will be invested in the battery market by 2050, of which two-thirds will be at the grid level and the rest in behind-the-meter, by households and businesses. Goldie-Scott adds that total annual investment in stationary energy storage in 2017 was around $2 billion.
In its latest report, BNEF further forecasts that as solar and wind shares rise, coal will become less relevant, with its global share of the electricity market expected to shrink from 38% to 11%.
Nope. Faster. Coal is already dying the Death of a Thousand Cuts. At some point this stupid dinosaur will realize that it is dead and just fall all the way down. We will come to the very last of the Last Greater Fools. Or we will push it over with a carbon tax.
Tell your stupid politicians* that we have to divest, now. Tell your pension plan. Tell your bosses. Tell your universities. Tell your non-profits. Coal, oil, and gas will be stranded. Wind, solar, and batteries are growing, and are profitable. There are Green energy funds that you, and they, can invest in.
Power-to-X gains momentum on two fronts in Germany
Two power-to-gas projects promise to improve the technology. In Brandenburg, Edis and Gasag want to transform renewable power into hydrogen, driving sectoral coupling. And Sunfire has switched on its first co-electrolysis project.
Hydrogen can be used in many ways to regenerate most of the energy used to produce it, and is also a valuable feedstock for chemical processes. It might substitute for methane in synthesizing ammonia, eliminating the release of CO2 from the current Haber-Bosch process. Here.
Nature: Synthesis of ammonia directly from air and water at ambient temperature and pressure
The N≡N bond (225 kcal mol−1) in dinitrogen is one of the strongest bonds in chemistry therefore artificial synthesis of ammonia under mild conditions is a significant challenge. Based on current knowledge, only bacteria and some plants can synthesise ammonia from air and water at ambient temperature and pressure. Here, for the first time, we report artificial ammonia synthesis bypassing N2 separation and H2 production stages. A maximum ammonia production rate of 1.14 × 10−5 mol m−2 s−1 has been achieved when a voltage of 1.6 V was applied. Potentially this can provide an alternative route for the mass production of the basic chemical ammonia under mild conditions. Considering climate change and the depletion of fossil fuels used for synthesis of ammonia by conventional methods, this is a renewable and sustainable chemical synthesis process for future.
OK, no, we aren’t there yet. That isn’t even grams/hour. But would you have believed in 10 terabyte hard drives off the rack even ten years ago? Did you believe Google when they first proposed Solar Power Cheaper Than Coal in 2007? Solar PV down 84% in nine years! Take another look at that BNEF graph up top.
Batteries stacking up in anticipation of Australia’s May election
No, not Teresa May of the UK. May on the calendar.
Analysis released today by independent energy and consulting firm, Rystad Energy shows an incredible reserve of energy storage has been added to Australia’s ongoing boom in solar and wind projects during the first two months of 2019 — confidence, perhaps, that an energy-transition policy will finally triumph at the Federal polls!
Canadian Solar CEO: Storage key to sustaining long-term, stable Australian PV market
Shawn Qu: I would prefer the market to continue, with around 2-3 GW each year.
Total lack of imagination. The market should plan to grow at a steadily accelerating pace. But I agree with Qu that the Australian stop-start lack of policy has to go away. And don’t get me started on Trump over here.
Energy Storage Europe: Storage applications on the rise across sectors
Energy storage systems are attracting great interest in more and more industries. The reasons: Technological maturity and a multitude of marketable products. This development is also substantiated by the trade fair cooperations as well as by the positive visitor reactions at this year’s Energy Storage Europe, which ends today in Düsseldorf after three successful days.
The German Energy Storage Association (BVES) presented the latest market figures at the trade fair and confirmed the positive development as well as the increasing importance of the energy storage industry. Sales revenues increased by nine per cent to five billion euros. The industry also reported an increase of nine per cent in the number of employees to 12,100. They primarily work in the segments of large & industrial batteries (33 %), heat storage (33 %) and home storage (21 %).
Annual growth of 9% gives a doubling time of eight years. I expect the growth rate to increase, since battery storage has only recently become the lowest-cost option, but is still declining in cost rapidly. Note that the figure given is for revenue growth. With declining costs, capacity growth is already more than 9%.
The World’s Largest Battery To Power The Permian
Borden County, Texas, is set to become the home of the world’s largest battery storage system in 2021.
Ha-ha, too late! California plans to beat that in 2020.
IP Juno, a unit of Intersect Power LLC, has recently outlined plans to build a 495-MW storage system together with a solar farm of the same size in Borden County, a small community in West Texas in the very heart of the most important U.S. oil field, the Permian.
It’s hard to miss the ironic interrelation between the booming Texas oil production and the rise of renewables in the most prolific U.S. shale basin. As the West Texas electricity grid strains under surging demand to power oil and gas operations, some of the new capacity installations in the coming years, including the world’s biggest battery according to Bloomberg, will help provide more electricity to the grid from solar power.
Soaring oil production is set to help the case for renewables in Texas, while wind and solar are set to help meet growing electricity demand for oil and gas drilling.
ExxonMobil, for example, has entered into two power purchase agreements (PPAs), under which the U.S. major will buy 500 MW of solar and wind power from the U.S. unit of Denmark’s Ørsted in the Permian, Ørsted said in November 2018. According to Bloomberg NEF, this is the biggest renewable power contract an oil firm has ever signed.
Although it is mostly known for oil and gas, Texas is the U.S. leader in terms of installed wind capacity. According to data from the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), with over 24 GW of wind in the state, only four countries in the world have more wind power than Texas. As of Q4 2018, Texas had a total of 144 wind projects online, of which 133 projects with over 10 MW capacity. Wind capacity under construction was 5,322 MW, while wind capacity in advanced development was 1,660 MW. In 2017, wind energy provided 14.8 percent of all in-state electricity production, AWEA data shows.
Texas is also sixth in the top ten U.S. solar states, according to the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA).
Yes, Texas produces much more than its share of irony.
Texas alone could produce and sell a terawatt of wind and solar power, if it allowed its grid to connect to the rest of the country. As could any of the states with major deserts and existing grid interties: California, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah. Most of the Plains states, too. And Chile, India, China, Australia, Namibia, and the other desert countries of Africa and the Middle East. We could be awash in wind and solar. We only need about 16 TW worldwide at present consumption levels, and somewhat more for EVs and ending poverty. Yes, we will get to those topics, too.
When Tesla debuted its Powerpack 2 energy storage system in 2016, Business Insider heralded it as “massive.” The idea was to standardize a power storage unit that could be deployed en masse to store extra energy from the grid and then dole it out when it was needed.
Now the blog Electrek has obtained a Tesla proposal for a huge Californian energy facility — and details show that the company’s upcoming Megapack energy storage system will be twelve times as powerful at the Powerpack 2, a colossal step up for Tesla’s energy ambitions.
According to Electrek, a Tesla proposal for an energy storage installation the company is providing for utility company PG&E reveals that each Megapack will consist of a 23-foot (7-meter) battery system. The PG&E substation will call for 449 Megapacks, for a total of 1,200 MWh. According to Eletrek‘s math, that means each Megapack will pack a punch of about 2,673 kWh. The system is scheduled to go online by the end of 2020.
Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California
The big new battery system is going to debut at Tesla’s giant 1.2 GWh energy storage project with PG&E in California.
Electrek can now confirm that it’s a large container-size energy storage system that Tesla plans to debut in its upcoming project commissioned by PG&E at the Moss Landing substation.
We obtained Tesla’s proposal for the project and it shows that the company plans to use ‘Megapack’ instead of its usual Powerpack for large utility-scale projects.
According to the document, a Tesla Megapack consists of long 23′-5″ (7.14m) x 5′-3″ (1.60m) battery system, which the company mostly installs back to back with another unit.
The Megapack will fill a standard shipping container for maximum efficiency in transportation and installation. Some are asking what took Tesla so long to pick up on the opportunity.
According to Tesla’s plan, they will deploy 449 Megapacks at the site:
Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh.
That’s more than 12 times the capacity of Powerpack 2 in a package that could potentially fit about 8 Powerpacks.
The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined.
PG&E says that they aim to bring the energy project online by the end of 2020.
When your latest project is bigger than all that you have done before, that’s proper exponential growth.
NEC ES completes 18 MW, 7.5 MWh storage project for EKZ in Switzerland
This size of project won’t even be news soon.
Californian solar output met 59% of demand at one point on Saturday
On Saturday afternoon, utility-scale solar output on California’s grid peaked at 10,745 MW – its highest level since last summer. More importantly, California is wringing greater flexibility out of its imports, meaning more renewables with less curtailment.
Curtailment is what happens when a power resource is producing more electricity than the grid can absorb at that moment, so that the power has to be spilled in some way. Preventing this is of course what storage is for.
Disclosure: I volunteered for several years with One Laptop Per Child. Its little green and white XO computers used lithium-iron-phosphate batteries developed by Yet-Min Chiang of MIT. His A123 battery company built one of the first battery storage systems for use with solar power, in the Atacama Desert of Chile.
* But I repeat myself.—Mark Twain