On Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its estimates of the 2018 midterm electorate as part of its Current Population Survey, a statistical survey of Americans, and one key finding is simply historic: The bureau has concluded that voters who showed up in 2018 were, overall, less white than those who turned out for the 2016 presidential election—the first time in two decades that a midterm electorate wasn’t whiter than the electorate in the preceding presidential election.
Indeed, as shown on the chart below from analyst Michael McDonald, the four midterms between 1998 and 2018 saw a sizable jump in the white proportion of the electorate compared to the previous presidential election:
While long-term trends have seen the national electorate grow less white as the country itself becomes less white, every midterm for the past 20 years has represented a step backward. That’s because people of color are more likely to vote only in presidential elections than white voters, just as more younger voters skip midterms than older voters.
That’s proven to be painful for Democrats, who are reliant on voters of color and younger voters. This phenomenon exacerbated Democratic losses in the 2010 and 2014 GOP midterm waves and even limited Democratic gains in 2006, which was a strong year for the party.
2018, however, turned out to be a rather different story, leading to the massive blue wave that saw Republicans lose the House, seven governorships, and six legislative chambers across the country.
While this survey offers just one type of estimate, we can be certain that last year's midterms were unlike any in recent memory, which saw the highest midterm turnout since 1914. This new data suggests that 2020 is poised to set another turnout record and see a surge in the proportion of voters of color compared to 2016. Indeed, McDonald contends that 2020 could see the highest presidential turnout in a century.
Donald Trump and the Republican Party have gone to extremes to prevent Democrats and people of color from voting, presenting a grave threat to America's democratic institutions. However, Americans who can are fighting back by exercising their right to vote—the right that protects all others—in historic numbers.