The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● IA State House: On Tuesday, Iowa state Rep. Andy McKean announced that he was leaving the Republican Party to join the Democrats and would seek re-election under Team Blue's banner in 2020. McKean's move leaves the GOP with a small 53-47 majority in the state's closely divided lower chamber.
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McKean previously served as a Republican in the state House and then the state Senate from 1979 until retiring in 2003, but he returned to the lower house in 2017. That made McKean the longest-serving Republican in the legislature until his switch. Throughout his career, he'd cut a relatively moderate profile, even siding with Democrats in recent years on bills involving labor rights and gun safety.
That left McKean increasingly out of step with the GOP, and in announcing his decision, he said he was leaving the party because of Donald Trump. At a Tuesday press conference, McKean said that he felt he had to be able to support his party's presidential nominee but couldn't say that about Trump—in his words, a "bully" whose "actions have coarsened political discourse, have resulted in unprecedented divisiveness, and have created an atmosphere that is a breeding ground for hateful rhetoric and actions." McKean concluded, "Some would excuse this behavior as telling it like it is and the new normal. If this is the new normal, I want no part of it."
However, McKean's decision to run for re-election as a Democrat is unlikely to make his life easier. McKean's seat, which is located near Dubuque in the eastern part of the state, swung from 56-43 Obama to 58-37 Trump, and according to analyst Drew Savicki, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds carried the seat 56-41 during her re-election campaign last year, so it doesn't look like this area will rapidly shift back to the left next year.
McKean won re-election 69-31 during his final campaign as a Republican last year but he's likely in for a tougher contest come next year. Still, if he can find a way to hold on, he'll help Democrats put the Iowa House in play.
As it happens, McKean is the 11th sitting state legislator in the nation to change parties since the 2018 election; you can see all of them here. Five other Republicans (three in Kansas, plus one each in California and New Jersey) have joined the Democratic Party, while one former Democrat apiece in Oklahoma and Mississippi has crossed the aisle in the opposite direction. Most of the new Democrats sit in suburban areas that have grown hostile to Trump, while the trio of new Republicans represent deep-red districts that would have fallen to the GOP sooner rather than later.
We also have a trio of legislators who've given up their party affiliation altogether. Over in Maine, Republican state Rep. Donald Marean became an independent, while Mississippi state Rep. Steve Holland left the Democrats, though Holland is still likely to caucus with his old party should he win re-election this year. Finally, in Alaska, state Rep. Bryce Edgmon dropped his Democratic affiliation to become an independent as part of the very complex negotiations that led to Edgmon regaining the speakership with the support of the Democratic caucus and some Republicans. You can find out more about each legislator's seat at our party switcher tracker, which we'll be updating throughout the cycle.
Senate
● AL-Sen: On Monday, state Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh told The Anniston Star that he would not seek the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Marsh, whom the paper aptly describes as a "perennial non-candidate for higher office," had been flirting with a bid since last year.
● KS-Sen: Author Sarah Smarsh, whose bestselling memoir, Heartland: A Memoir of Working Hard and Being Broke in the Richest Country on Earth, was a finalist for the 2018 National Book Award, tells the Kansas City Star that she's spoken to both Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto about a possible bid for Kansas' open Senate seat. Smarsh didn't give a timeline for when she would decide, saying instead that she would "slowly weigh" a run.
Smarsh's book focused on her life growing up poor in rural Kansas. In it, she described how local farmers have become victims of agribusinesses and also explored how "[p]oor whiteness is a peculiar offense in that society imbues whiteness with power—not just by making it the racial norm next to which the rest are 'others' but by using it as a shorthand for economic stability."
Smarsh further detailed her upbringing by a family she saw as voting against its own interests by backing Republicans, writing, "People on welfare were presumed 'lazy,' and for us there was no more hurtful word." As a result, she wrote, "Impoverished people, then, must do one of two things: Concede personal failure and vote for the party more inclined to assist them, or vote for the other party, whose rhetoric conveys hope that the labor of their lives is what will compensate them."
In talking about a possible Senate bid, Smarsh argued, "Conversations have made it clear that, as a proud product of rural America, a longtime chronicler of Kansas for a national audience, and a progressive woman who was raised in a moderately conservative environment," she could be "a cultural bridge person who would offer voters a unique option in the race."
● TX-Sen, TX-31: On Tuesday, Air Force veteran MJ Hegar announced that she would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn in Texas. Hegar is the first major Democratic candidate to jump in the race, but, as we'll discuss, she may not be the last.
Hegar ran for the House last year against Republican Rep. John Carter in Texas' 31st Congressional District and held the longtime incumbent to a modest 51-48 win in a seat that Trump had carried 54-41 two years before. This was the first time in decades that Democrats had made a serious effort to win this district, which is located in Austin's northern suburbs, and on the strength of her performance, the DCCC had tried to recruit her to run against Carter again in 2020.
One thing that impressed Democrats last cycle was Hegar's very strong fundraising. She took in over $5 million for her 2018 campaign thanks in large part to a strong web video that starred the candidate talking about the challenges she overcame in life. That slickly produced viral ad, titled "Doors," featured Hegar's description of growing up in an abusive household and her career as an Air Force pilot, including how she saved her passengers after her medevac helicopter was shot down by the Taliban and sued the Pentagon over its now-defunct policy that prevented women from serving in ground combat positions.
Hegar kicked off her Senate campaign with a new web video that recapped her campaign (and featured a cameo from comedian Patton Oswalt). She concluded by hitting Cornyn, who dubbed himself "Big John" in a 2008 web ad that went viral for a very different reason, by declaring, "He calls himself 'Big John,' but he shrinks out of the way while Mitch McConnell gets in the way of anything actually getting done in our government." She went on to call "Big John" out for "shrinking out of the way again while they try and take away protections for those of us with pre-existing health conditions."
Hegar gives Team Blue an experienced candidate with a strong biography to take on Cornyn, a longtime politician who ended March with a hefty $7.4 million war chest. However, she may have to get through a competitive primary before she can focus on what will be a challenging and very expensive general election in what's still a conservative state. Rep. Joaquin Castro, a well-connected congressman from the San Antonio area, has been talking about running for a while and recently promised to decide "soon." Houston City Councilor Amanda Edwards, who holds a citywide seat, has also been considering and recently said that she won't defer to Hegar or Castro.
P.S. While Hegar's decision to run for the Senate takes some pressure off Carter in the 31st District, he might still be vulnerable against another Democrat. According to the Texas Legislative Council, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz carried this congressional district against Beto O'Rourke just 50.5-48.4 last year, which was very similar to his statewide margin of victory.
House
● GA-06: Hah, for serious? In the previous Digest, we flagged that former Republican Rep. Karen Handel recently reported to the FEC she'd raised $238,000 in the first quarter of the year despite issuing a press release a few weeks earlier to claim she'd pulled in $325,000. There was no logical explanation for the huge discrepancy, but Roll Call's Simone Pathé relays a patently illogical one from the Handel campaign: Her announcement "included money leftover from 2018."
But, you see, well, no. That's not how it works. Handel's release (which we've frozen in digital amber just in case someone tries to rewrite history) very, very explicitly "announced today a Q1 fundraising total of $325,000." "Q1"—that's short for "first quarter." And "first quarter" is short for "all the days from Jan. 1 to March 31, inclusive." Dec. 31? Forget it, you're out. Dec. 30? Don't even try.
But Karen Handel did try. She finished her unsuccessful 2018 re-election campaign with $88,000 left in the bank—a sum she was unwise to hang on to, seeing as she lost to Democrat Lucy McBath by just a 1-point margin. Handel's failure to "spend down to zero" (the first rule of all competitive political campaigns) did give her the slightest monetary head-start for her comeback bid, but here's the thing: She did not raise $325,000 in the first quarter. You'd have to violate the laws of physics to say otherwise, but that's one set of laws even Republicans can't break.
● IL-06: On Monday, former GOP Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti rolled out endorsements from her old boss, former Gov. Bruce Rauner, as well as downstate Reps. Rodney Davis and John Shimkus. So far, Sanguinetti is the only noteworthy Republican challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Sean Casten in the 6th District, which is in the Chicago suburbs.
● MA-06: Following Rep. Seth Moulton's Monday announcement that he'd join the race for president, former state Sen. Barbara L'Italien reiterated that she's considering a bid against Moulton in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District and added that she expects to decide sometime in "the next several months." L'Italien also voiced her scornful views of Moulton once again, saying, "Seth has failed to deliver for his district, failed spectacularly in his attempts to remove Nancy Pelosi as speaker, and I think so far failed to put forth a compelling reason why he's qualified to be president."
And while Moulton insists he'll seek re-election if he doesn't capture the Democratic presidential nomination, new paperwork he just submitted to the FEC will undermine his ability to go home again. Referring to his House district, Moulton's latest filing says that he is "no longer actively seeking nomination or election to such office, and has ceased to conduct campaign activities with respect to the aforementioned election." That gives L'Italien—or another eager Moulton critic—a huge opportunity to start conducting all kinds of campaign activities with respect to the aforementioned election.
● NC-03: Winning for Women is out with their TV spot in support of pediatrician Joan Perry in the April 30 GOP primary, and they fall back on the familiar "crying baby" trope.
The narrator declares that D.C. "is full of politicians who act like kids," but Perry "has been taking care of our kids for 30 years." As images of Nancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders fill the screen, the narrator then implores the audience to send Perry to Congress because "she'll take care of those kids, too." Wait, is the commercial comparing how Perry would care for Pelosi and Sanders to the way she's been caring for her patients? That seems … strange.
The ad also shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the GOP's new favorite hobgoblin, as an example of the type of politician voters should be tired of. Perry's presence or absence from Congress is, of course, very unlikely to have any impact on AOC.
● NY-15: On Tuesday, Assemblyman Michael Blake filed paperwork with the FEC to raise money for a campaign for this safely blue open seat in the Bronx. Blake, who also serves as a DNC vice chair, has not yet announced he's running, though Jimmy Vielkind wrote at the Wall Street Journal on Sunday that the assemblyman said he would make his plans known this week.
Vielkind also writes that fellow Assemblyman Marcos Crespo has expressed interest in running to succeed retiring Rep. José Serrano. However, unnamed political operatives predict that neither Crespo nor state Sen. Gustavo Rivera, who has also talked about running here, will jump in the race. For the first time in a decade, New York will hold its federal and state primaries on the same day, so sitting state legislators would need to give up their seats to run for Congress.
