For the first time since 2003, all three governorships that are regularly elected in the year following midterm elections have the potential to change hands. The playing field, however, is entirely in the South and, as you'd expect, still largely favors Republicans. Nonetheless, an unusual set of circumstances gives Democrats reason for hope in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Below we present our race ratings for this year’s gubernatorial contests. These ratings represent our attempt to forecast the outcomes of this November’s elections, using the best information we have available. As circumstances warrant, we’ll issue changes in these ratings from time to time. To keep up with any changes, please subscribe to our free newsletter, the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest, which we send out each weekday. We’ll also bring you our ratings for next year’s races for governor in a future installment.
Tossup
● Louisiana – John Bel Edwards (D): In almost any other state, John Bel Edwards would be on a glide-path to re-election: He's consistently enjoyed positive favorability numbers throughout his tenure, and last year, he reached a widely hailed budget deal with the GOP-run legislature to put Louisiana's perennially shaky finances on stable footing for the first time in many years.
He also avoided his strongest potential opponent when Sen. John Kennedy unexpectedly declined to run, and powerful Republicans have openly voiced doubts about the two lackluster alternatives they've been left with, Rep. Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone. (Louisiana's August filing deadline could allow for a late entry, but no major names are still actively considering a bid.) On top of that, Edwards has led both potential opponents both in fundraising and in virtually all available polling to date.
But Louisiana is still Louisiana—which is to say, it remains a very conservative state. In a painful irony, Edwards' responsible stewardship has helped erase memories of the disastrous misrule of his predecessor, Bobby Jindal, that was a key reason for his victory in 2015. And Republican voters will find it easier to support Abraham or Rispone than they did the fatally flawed David Vitter, whom Edwards dispatched by double digits four years ago.
Lean Republican
● Kentucky – Matt Bevin (R): Matt Bevin is the most unpopular governor in America—literally—and by a wide margin. Even though he’s the first Republican governor in state history to preside over a Republican-run legislature, Bevin's spent most of his time in office feuding with lawmakers: Last year, most notably, legislators overrode a Bevin veto of new education funding after a punishing teachers strike engulfed the state. Bevin also cemented his reputation for Trump-esque coarseness during that episode when he baselessly claimed that children had been sexually assaulted as a result of the strike.
Thanks in part to the weakness of his position, Bevin's drawn three high-profile Democratic challengers who are presently duking it out ahead of the May 21 primary: state Attorney General Andy Beshear, former state Auditor Adam Edelen, and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins. Any one of them would make a credible opponent in the November general election.
But Bevin has two major advantages. One, he's a wealthy former money manager who's self-funded his past campaigns heavily and can do so again. And two, Kentucky has grown increasingly hostile to electing Democrats. In 2015, Bevin's final 9-point margin defied all the polls, while Edelen lost in a shocker, and Beshear barely won his open-seat election—and that's not to mention Trump's 30-point victory. Bevin's miserable approval ratings give Democrats an opening, but it's not a wide one.
Likely Republican
● Mississippi – OPEN (R): Democrats haven't run a competitive race in Mississippi since Gov. Ronnie Musgrove lost his bid for re-election in 2003, but this year they've landed their strongest possible candidate in longtime state Attorney General Jim Hood. Republicans, meanwhile, don't seem thrilled with their frontrunner, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. (Sound like a familiar story?) Though he's been endorsed by term-limited Gov. Phil Bryant, top GOP officials have poor-mouthed Reeves on the record while pushing the candidacy of former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller.
Still, even in the best of circumstances, Hood, who is the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Mississippi, would face long odds on account of his state's deep red hue. But thanks to a relic of the state's 1890 Jim Crow constitution, there's a further hurdle that, at the moment, would be almost impossible to overcome: Uniquely, Mississippi requires candidates for governor to win not only a majority of the popular vote but also a majority of districts in the state House—a home-grown version of the electoral college.
The House map, however, is extremely gerrymandered in favor of the GOP, meaning that Hood would probably need to win statewide in a double-digit blowout just to capture a bare majority of legislative districts—an exceedingly unlikely outcome. And in the event that no candidate wins dual majorities, the Republican-controlled state House itself would get to pick a winner. We have no doubt it would choose the GOP nominee even if Hood wins more votes.
There is a way out, though: There's a reasonable chance that Mississippi's method of electing governors violates the Voting Rights Act and the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of "one person, one vote." Hood or another party would need to bring a lawsuit challenging this practice, but as yet, that hasn't happened. If this system is struck down, however, then Hood would have an outside shot at becoming Mississippi's next leader.
In brief, here’s how we define each of our ratings categories:
Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong, though not necessarily perfectly equal, chance of winning.
Lean Democrat or Lean Republican: One party has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party.
Likely Democrat or Likely Republican: One party has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive and an upset cannot be ruled out.
Safe Democrat or Safe Republican: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party is certain to win.
Note that even within each category, not all races are equally competitive: One race in the Lean Republican grouping, for instance, might be on the border of being a Tossup, while another could be closer to Likely Republican.
