Many of us are aware that the total number of Pledged Delegates (PDs) for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination is currently 3,768. As of today, the breakdown of how these 3,768 PDs fall by the type of event is:
3534 PDs via State-run Primaries (94% of total)
145 PDs via State-run Caucuses (4% of total)
89 PDs via Party-run “Firehouse Primaries” (2% of total)
3768
See The Green Papers for details: Green Papers 2020
Note how small a percentage of the total PDs will be awarded in 2020 via Caucuses. That’s because six or seven states have recently decided to switch this cycle from caucuses to primaries. (Maine is still in the process of deciding and it appears likely it will also make this switch.)
Caucuses were a key part of Obama’s strategy to win the primary in 2008 and of Sanders’ strategy to try to win the 2016 primary. Caucuses are headed toward the dust bin of history, which is where they belong in my opinion.
But perhaps fewer of us are aware that the total 3,768 Pledged Delegates cited above may well change before the race is over (and thus the number needed to win the nomination may change).
Perhaps the biggest still-to-be-determined factor involves potential additional “Bonus” Delegates which States may be awarded for “timing” and/or “clustering” the date of their primary contests. See Article 1.C of the DNC Call For the 2020 Democratic National Convention:
DNC 2020 Convention Call
Frontloading HQ has a fascinating article going into great detail on this subject, as well as the intricacies of how the Automatic Delegates (AKA “superdelegates”) may vote in 2020 as a result of recent changes to DNC rules:
FHQ