A key part of the intelligence that reportedly stirred Bolton and Pompeo to stoke war talk may have been misread, according to The Guardian. Three weeks ago a prominent Iranian military leader told Iran-aligned militias in Baghdad to “prepare for proxy war.” This reportedly was taken in Washington as a sign Iran was preparing to launch attacks on U.S. forces and facilities. But, The Wall Street Journal reported, the proxy war call was apparently made because Tehran’s leaders believed a U.S. attack was soon coming. In other words, this was a self-defense move.
Whether they truly believe it when they say it, Erlanger writes that the Europeans don’t think Trump himself wants a war with Iran, but do believe Bolton does. That’s not a big leap, since he’s been beating that drum for more than two decades. Trump himself told Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan Wednesday that he doesn’t want war with Iran. Although he is, of course, a notorious liar, that stance would, in fact, match his previous statements. As pointed out here Thursday, although Trump denies there is any infighting over Iran among him and his advisers, anonymous sources have told reporters that Trump is frustrated that Bolton appears to have made a confrontation between the two nations more likely.
Despite this alleged disagreement from his underlings, however, Trump’s own bombastic rhetoric, his withdrawal last May from the multilateral 2015 nuclear accord negotiated by the Obama administration, the reimposition of old economic sanctions, and adding of new ones have all cranked up the potential for shooting to get started.
The withdrawal from the accord is what many European leaders believe, with good reason, precipitated the current situation, with Iran now responding a step at a time, exactly as predicted at the Pentagon and by other longtime observers, according to Times’ sources.
The first step, announced earlier this month, is to move away from provisions of the accord that curtail how much enriched uranium and heavy water Iran can stockpile. Each is key to making nuclear weapons if Tehran should choose to do so. If the Europeans have not come up with a means to get around sanctions by mid-July, President Hassan Rouhani says Iran will again begin enriching uranium, which would be a major step away from its verified compliance with the accord since it was signed nearly four years ago.