Not my preferred candidate but I did not see this anywhere else and I though Warren supporters might find it of interest. People have discussed Warren’s uptick in the polls but I enjoyed some of the analysis in the article. If I missed coverage of this article, just ignore.
FiveThirtyEight had an April 30 article discussing the Biden Bounce (meaningful but, like the others, will fade a bit). The article also includes some polling averages in an easy to read chart:
Of interest for Warren supporters may be the following possibility:
But Warren is in an intriguing position. Warren’s the candidate who we thought might have the least overlap with Biden and therefore would be least hurt by his entry into the race — and the polling seems to bear that out. Although both candidates are broadly within the Democratic mainstream, she’s toward the left half and he’s toward the moderate half. She’s a woman and he’s a man, obviously. His case rests heavily on electability and big, abstract, meat-and-potatoes themes; she appeals to voters on the basis of her highly detailed policy proposals. Her base is college-educated whites; his is non-college-educated white voters and black voters. Biden and Warren have directly clashed over issues such as bankruptcy laws.
In short, Biden and Warren make pretty good foils for one another, probably better foils than Biden and Sanders make, as both are old white men who aren’t especially well-liked by party activists. A showdown between Biden and Buttigieg, or Biden and O’Rourke, could also leave big segments of the party unhappy, including parts of the left and many women and nonwhite voters.3
So in the scenario where the nomination comes down to a battle between Biden and one other Democrat — not the only way the race could unfold, but one plausible path — Warren could turn out to be that Democrat. Together, they capture most of the major Democratic constituencies. I’m less convinced that you could have a Biden-versus-Sanders showdown. I think a lot of voters, and certain parts of the Democratic establishment, would go shopping for a third candidate in that eventuality.
But Warren could also become a major player in the race in other ways. Independently of Biden’s entry to the race, she seems to be gaining ground...
I think that’s an intriguing take that should interest Warren supporters. I am disappointed in Harris’ numbers but she may also be in a position to take some of Biden’s support if he does collapse. It’s good to see that at least one of the capable women in the race is gaining ground.
Sometimes you need to keep an eye on the one who isn’t getting the most press. Warren is quietly (in terms of press coverage) running a good campaign. With some more coverage, who knows how the polls could change.
Anyway, it’s interesting analysis.