If there’s one Civiqs chart that makes me lose sleep at night, it’s this one:
Trump got 46% in 2016, so he’s close to what is likely his ceiling.
Democrats think a Democrat should be elected 88-6, while Republicans think Trump should be reelected by … an equal 88-6 margin.
Men think Trump should be reelected by a 51-38 margin, while women have it right, opting for a Democrat instead, by a … 50-38 margin. That is one hell of a gender gap.
Independents? They want Trump reelected by a 39-38 margin, with 13 percent preferring “other party.” Is it any wonder the toplines are tied?
The numbers change once you offer actual named Democrats. In a Civiqs-Daily Kos poll last week, Joe Biden beat Trump 48-44, while Elizabeth Warren beat him 48-45. It’s likely easier to rally around an actual name than “generic Democrat.” But what the chart above shows is that the underlying baseline is still 50-50. 2020 will be a base election, and the party that best turns out voters is the party that will emerge victorious in the end. We did it in 2018 with a mixture of great, inspiring, non-traditional candidates (women and men of color) and good old-fashioned on-the-ground ass-busting. We have to follow the same model in 2020.